Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

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Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? This week, we speak withAustan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He’s president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. That is a sign of credibility of the central bank.

Economy 162

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Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the May FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year, followed by a moderately paced recovery. emphasis added

Economics 347

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The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. Taking rates to the 1.50%-1.75% range had some bite, and we see the impact of this higher cost of credit combined with inflation impacting the economy. The diffusion index = 100. increase in 1Q.

Economics 321

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The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2024

The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.”

Advertising 321

Advertising Economics Banking Economy 321

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 18, 2025

klementoninvesting.substack.com) Economy What people would be willing to pay to skip out on business cycles. papers.ssrn.com) Why credit card banking is so profitable. papers.ssrn.com) Research If you can identify what economic regime we are in, you can better forecast factor returns.

Banking 147

Banking Economy Economics Investing 147

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

wsj.com) Revolut now has a UK banking license. vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. ft.com) Economy The case for the Fed to cut rates. wsj.com) How the post-pandemic economy is messing with the Sahm Rule. ft.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

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License Financial Advising Economy Economics 289

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2024

These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration. I suggest you go read the entire piece, here.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. ” Why? .” 40%) probability of happening.

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The Big Picture

APRIL 21, 2023

It should also not be ignored that this survey is following the banking scare. This is not the same economy as the pre-Covid era. This is not the same economy as the pre-Covid era. This is the economy of “pushing price” and finding that marginal dollar. There is a sense that the banking scare solved the inflation problem.

Economy 328

Economy Banking Manufacturing Management 328

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year , followed by a moderately paced recovery.

Economics 305

Economics Banking Communication Economy 305

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 18, 2024

Companies Marc Rubenstein, "PayPal Holdings Inc is not a bank and doesn’t enjoy any of the protections that are afforded to banks." politico.com) Economy There's still no sign of a recession in the data. semafor.com) This year's Nobel Prize winners in Economics did not come with universal acclaim.

Assets 278

Assets Financial Advising Communication Banking 278

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2023

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Banking contacts reported slight to modest declines in loan demand. Louis based on information collected on or before October 6, 2023.

Economics 162

Economics Retail Manufacturing Banking 162

Abnormal Returns

JULY 14, 2024

investmentecosystem.com) Finance Bank OZK ($OZK) is uniquely exposed to the South Florida real estate market. nbcnews.com) Economy An economic soft landing is still on track. dallasfed.org) The economic schedule for the coming week. humbledollar.com) Investment professionals should consciously avoid using jargon.

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Economics Media Government 262

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 23, 2024

nextavenue.org) Banks don't want to held further accountable for elder financial abuse. (fa-mag.com) fa-mag.com) Economy Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'What will happen with house prices in 2025?' (on.ft.com) Private credit is planning to take bigger chunk of the overall credit markets.

Advertising 147

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Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

The biggest focus of the September meeting should be the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). At their September meeting, Fed officials are likely to make fairly straightforward revisions to their economic projections that reflect these recent developments. Economic projections will be released at this meeting.

Banking 288

Banking Economics Economy Communication 288

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

In other words, if you were forecasting 10-year returns of 3% annually, you are also forecasting an economic shitstorm of rare and historic proportions. I do believe that the economic gains we are going to see in technology justify higher market prices. But that’s a very different discussion than 3% annually for 10 years.

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Banking 326

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

AUGUST 4, 2022

. • They Quit Goldman’s Star Trading Team, Then the Bank Raised Alarms : Goldman accused a trading pair of accessing sensitive code on their way to a hedge fund. The weird contradictions rendering the US economy inexplicable : Thanks to the pandemic and how advanced economies responded to it, we’re in a very strange place indeed. . •

Economy 277

Economy Startup Economics Banking 277

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

(humbledollar.com) Finance Bank of America ($BAC) has turned around its trading division. nytimes.com) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 4.8% nytimes.com) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 4.8% calculatedriskblog.com) What if the economy in 2024 was just 'normal'? wsj.com) Japan has a trucking problem.

Marketing 264

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 264

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

thereformedbroker.com) The S&P 500 is not the economy. on.ft.com) Why does Alameda Research own a stake in Farmington State Bank? championbets.com.au) Economy What odds do term spread models put on a recession? economist.com) Five economic reasons to be thankful, including low unemployment claims.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Retail Economy Media 264

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 21, 2023

finance.yahoo.com) Banks are clawing to hold onto a chunk of the leveraged lending market. bloomberg.com) Economy Still no meaningful uptick in weekly initial unemployment claims. bonddad.blogspot.com) Checking in on ten big economic questions for 2023. (morningstar.com) What do you get when you combine momentum and quality?

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Media Banking Accounting 289

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Together they paint a fascinating picture of an economy robust enough to withstand the fastest set of rate increases in history, but also one that is showing signs of slowing. We currently see none of the pre-recession warnings that are typical before economic contractions. consensus — but also included a consumption gain of 4%.

Economy 304

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 304

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 22, 2023

(theatlantic.com) Finance Banks are planning to start.lending again. economist.com) Economy Still no sign of a pickup in weekly initial unemployment claims. economist.com) Economy Still no sign of a pickup in weekly initial unemployment claims. bonddad.blogspot.com) Economic growth is running around 2%.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Startup Media Economy 264

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 11, 2024

apolloacademy.com) Big banks are testing AI to replace the grunt work done by early career analysts. nixons.substack.com) How fast is India's economy really growing? bonddad.blogspot.com) Why economic cycles are now more muted. compounderspod.substack.com) Finance M&A volume is picking up. would be shrinking.

Media 278

Media Financial Advising Economy Banking 278

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2022

Corporate Stagflation Means Rising Sales With Flat Volumes It’s growth, but not healthy growth, and it doesn’t really help the economy. Corporate Stagflation Means Rising Sales With Flat Volumes It’s growth, but not healthy growth, and it doesn’t really help the economy. But people with patience and long horizons came out fine. (

Economics 304

Economics Economy Sales Banking 304

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 16, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the July FOMC meeting was stronger than the June projection. Participants generally noted a high degree of uncertainty regarding the cumulative effects on the economy of past monetary policy tightening. From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 25-26, 2023.

Economy 245

Economy Banking Economics Marketing 245

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 2, 2023

thereformedbroker.com) Banks Why SVB was able to skate stricter bank regulation. nytimes.com) Regional banks are a linchpin for the economy. nytimes.com) Why banks resist mark-to-market accounting rules. bloomberg.com) Economy Why we should be celebrating the current employment situation.

Financial Advising 240

Financial Advising Banking Economy Insurance 240

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 12, 2023

(theirrelevantinvestor.com) Bank runs happen because of people. etftrends.com) Silicon Valley Bank How SVB went wrong, an explainer. wsj.com) SVB's customers were not typical of other banks. riabiz.com) Venture capital Silicon Valley Bank played a key role in the venture ecosystem.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Banking Startup Communication 246

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 3, 2024

(wsj.com) The policy approach to the banking system is 'incoherent.' economy is filled with technical debt. goodgoodgood.co) Economy Freight volume is slowing. goodgoodgood.co) Economy Freight volume is slowing. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) The case that the economy is doing just fine. politico.com) The U.S.

Financial Advising 255

Financial Advising Economy Media Banking 255

Calculated Risk

MARCH 13, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2 A brief excerpt: Special Note: This was mostly written prior to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. Now it appears the Fed might pause in March. And that this has been especially true for housing.

Economics 130

Economics Banking Economy Marketing 130

Abnormal Returns

MAY 7, 2023

wsj.com) Warren Buffett on the banking crisis. axios.com) Finance The banking crisis isn't over. nytimes.com) Policy How higher minimum wages make for a better economy. economy actually does fall into recession later this year." wapo.st) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 241

Financial Advising Economy Banking Media 241

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2023

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • The Fed’s anti-inflation work is almost done, with an assist from the banking crisis. My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • The Fed’s anti-inflation work is almost done, with an assist from the banking crisis. Irrelevant Investor ) • What’s eating Deutsche Bank? MSNBC ). •

Banking 290

Banking Retirement Economy Economics 290

The Big Picture

AUGUST 5, 2022

. • Blame History for Making Recession Calls So Hard : The National Bureau of Economic Research has been putting dates on downturns since 1929 — well before there was such a thing as gross domestic product ( Bloomberg ) see also Does This Look Like a Recession To You? Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Contradictions abound.

License 289

License Economics Banking Economy 289

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 28, 2024

marknewfield.substack.com) Companies Accenture ($ACN) is making bank on generative AI. slate.com) Economy The May PCE increased 2.6% bonddad.blogspot.com) Economic surprises are likely done going down YTD. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Home bias illustrated: the case of Canadian investors. You need a path through.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Food Media Banking 245

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

He coined the term “K-shaped recovery” to describe the pandemic’s effects on the economy. Atwater previously ran JPMorgan’s asset-backed securities business and served in executive roles at First USA, Bank One and Juniper Financial. The work from home confidence divide was both revealed and amplified by the pandemic.

Economy 283

Economy Banking Economics Assets 283

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

I have been fairly vocal that inflation has peaked , the Fed has already overtightened, and they run the risk of doing too much economic damage fighting a demon that has already been exorcised. Inflation is vanquished, the economy makes a soft landing, rainbows and sprinkles and unicorns! central bank! (20 20 % chance ).

Economy 295

Economy Economics Valuation Marketing 295