The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? This week, we speak withAustan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He’s president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. So let’s just start out with a simple question.

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

wsj.com) Revolut now has a UK banking license. vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. nytimes.com) The number of Americans earning the minimum wage keeps shrinking. ft.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (allstarcharts.com) It's not just the U.S.

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License Financial Advising Economy Economics 289

The Big Picture

MARCH 18, 2023

Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The A to Z of economics : Economic terms, from “absolute advantage” to “zero-sum game”, explained to you in plain English. ( Wall Street’s Biggest Banks Rescue Teetering First Republic.

Banking 304

Banking Education Economics Management 304

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 30, 2024

The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. 2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. -- Thursday, December 5th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. million from 7.86

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 162

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

The biggest focus of the September meeting should be the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). At their September meeting, Fed officials are likely to make fairly straightforward revisions to their economic projections that reflect these recent developments. Economic projections will be released at this meeting.

Banking 288

Banking Economics Economy Communication 288

The Big Picture

APRIL 21, 2023

And the current S&P Global PMI numbers serve to reinforce the PoV narrative. It should also not be ignored that this survey is following the banking scare. Following the SIVB debacle and the subsequent funding pressures seen by some regional banks, the stability of the financial sector was at risk. Manufacturing firms?

Economy 328

Economy Banking Manufacturing Management 328

The Big Picture

JANUARY 4, 2023

The Philly Fed map is based on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data for the states; the St Louis Fed builds on that, creating an ongoing chart that shows the relationship between the state data and recessions: Number of States with Negative Growth (State Coincident Indexes). By Kevin L. Kliesen , Cassandra Marks.

Numbers 290

Numbers Banking Economics 290

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Consider : Questioning investors as to their risk tolerance does not typically result in an accurate description of their true tolerance for drawdowns and lower returns; instead, we get a number highly dependent upon the performance of equity markets over the prior three to six months. November 22, 2009). Black Friday #Fails.

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Risk Tolerance Budgeting Numbers Banking 334

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

We currently see none of the pre-recession warnings that are typical before economic contractions. Instead of most states showing expansion, before recessions, that will drop to 45, 40, then 35 before a recession begins; eventually, the number of expanding states then fall to 10, 5, or 0.

Economy 304

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 304

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 2, 2023

thereformedbroker.com) Banks Why SVB was able to skate stricter bank regulation. nytimes.com) Regional banks are a linchpin for the economy. nytimes.com) Why banks resist mark-to-market accounting rules. tker.co) You can expect the Case-Shiller housing numbers to turn negative year-over-year in the next few months.

Financial Advising 240

Financial Advising Banking Economy Insurance 240

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 12, 2023

(theirrelevantinvestor.com) Bank runs happen because of people. etftrends.com) Silicon Valley Bank How SVB went wrong, an explainer. wsj.com) SVB's customers were not typical of other banks. riabiz.com) Venture capital Silicon Valley Bank played a key role in the venture ecosystem.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Banking Startup Communication 246

Calculated Risk

MAY 14, 2024

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Rose by $184 Billion in Q1 2024; Delinquency Transition Rates Increased Across All Debt Types The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Mortgage balances rose by $190 billion from the previous quarter and was $12.44

Economics 305

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 305

Nerd's Eye View

AUGUST 22, 2022

In general, this means that people are more likely to be more aware of how much cash they're holding than the other numbers in their financial life, like the balances on their retirement accounts (which, being less 'immediate' in their intended purpose, are not often at the forefront of most people's minds to the same extent that cash is).

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Clients Management Accounting Banking 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City based on information collected on or before August 28, 2023." Contacts from most Districts indicated economic growth was modest during July and August. Job growth was subdued across the nation.

Manufacturing 298

Manufacturing Transportation Retail Sales 298

Nerd's Eye View

AUGUST 22, 2022

In general, this means that people are more likely to be more aware of how much cash they're holding than the other numbers in their financial life, like the balances on their retirement accounts (which, being less 'immediate' in their intended purpose, are not often at the forefront of most people's minds to the same extent that cash is).

Clients 246

Clients Management Accounting Banking 246

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 20, 2023

While it remains to be seen whether the measures will actually be enacted, proposed measures include raising income and capital gains tax rates, instituting wealth taxes, and reducing the state estate tax exemption, potentially creating future planning opportunities for advisors with clients in those states.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Financial Advice Fee Only Financial Planning 246

Calculated Risk

APRIL 15, 2023

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. -- Tuesday, April 18th -- 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for March. . -- Monday, April 17th -- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of -18.0, up from -24.6.

Manufacturing 257

Manufacturing Sales Banking Numbers 257

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. It’s just off the peak, but still extremely high by any measure.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2023 2024 2025 Mar 2023 0.0 Two key leading economic indicators are suggesting a recession this year. 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

A data-dependent central bank surely should be working off of the latest available information. But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model.

Economics 312

Economics Retail Banking Economy 312

Discipline Funds

JANUARY 21, 2025

The USA has an intricate network of banks, non-banks, private equity and venture capital that tirelessly seeks out the best place to allocate capital. Even though these contracts are negative sum, they are serving a meaningful and real economic purpose. But not all negative sum instruments serve an economic purpose.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Insurance Economics 97

Trade Brains

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

Yes Bank vs IDFC Bank : Banks are the economic engine. The higher the asset quality of banks, the better the state of the economy. Banks facilitate the flow of money in markets following monetary policy, which determines the economy’s growth and decline. 7,250 crores at Rs.

Banking 104

Banking Planning Accounting Retail 104

Calculated Risk

MARCH 29, 2023

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for January 2023. An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. city average).

Manufacturing 246

Manufacturing Banking Numbers Economics 246

Calculated Risk

JUNE 23, 2023

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for May 2023. An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 0.8

Manufacturing 242

Manufacturing Banking Numbers Economics 242

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

Most of us get paid by a direct deposit into our bank account. That you can tank up in 2024 for $50-75 is an economic miracle, but people still love to complain about gas prices. For most of us who are not regularly crunching the numbers in spreadsheets, it may not feel that way. Houses are another legitimate and big complaint.

Budgeting 321

Budgeting Economics Sales Media 321

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 14, 2023

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. 2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. -- Thursday, January 19th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

Retail 264

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 264

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 20, 2024

amycastor.com) Companies It's hard to wrap your head around the numbers with Nvidia's ($NVDA) new chips. apolloacademy.com) How much longer can banks and office owners push out loan expirations? reuters.com) Economy By any reasonable measure, the average American is better off economically than they were four years ago.

Financial Advising 253

Financial Advising Startup Valuation Economy 253

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 10, 2022

KCP Group ). • Your Career Is Just One-Eighth of Your Life : Five pieces of career advice, shaped by economics, psychology, and a little bit of existential math. ( History by numbers : Is history a matter of individual agency and action, or of finding and quantifying underpinning structures and patterns? The Atlantic ). •

Math 311

Math Wealth Management Accounting Media 311

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 27, 2023

Thoughts Equity markets look to extend their winning streak to three weeks despite continued uncertainty in the banking sector. Fund managers remain historically conservative per Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey showing asset allocators long cash and short equities. over the past two weeks.

Banking 98

Banking Marketing Marketing Economics 98

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 16, 2024

wsj.com) Bank of New York Mellon is cutting 'Mellon' out of its name. calculatedriskblog.com) Why the jobs market may be weaker than the numbers say. wapo.st) The economic schedule for the holiday-shortened week to come. (tker.co) Is the return of RoaringKitty a sign or just noise? Now they are waiting for their cash back.

Financial Advising 200

Financial Advising Healthcare Economy Media 200

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

Most economic downturns hit lower-income Americans hardest, but this time is different. Slate ) • Guess Who Loses After Florida and Texas Bar ESG Banks? Slate ) • Guess Who Loses After Florida and Texas Bar ESG Banks? They have each other’s phone numbers. The stock market’s winners and losers will be different too.

Math 290

Math Advertising Food Retail 290

Calculated Risk

JULY 13, 2024

Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. -- Tuesday, July 16th -- 8:30 AM: Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released. . -- Monday, July 15th -- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, unchanged from -6.0. 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for June.

Retail 182

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 182

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES). Q&A What's Going On?

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

The Big Picture

AUGUST 6, 2022

It’s the intersection of business, people, psychology, sociology, and numbers. Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Anat Admati, Professor of Finance and Economics at Stanford University Graduate School of Business. It’s just inherently fascinating. ” ( Compound Manual ).

Engineering 287

Engineering Economics Food Banking 287

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. If there was something magical about 2% as the ideal balance between prices and jobs, that would be one thing.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2023

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. • At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. . • At 10:00 AM, The January NAHB homebuilder survey.

Retail 195

Retail Sales Banking Numbers 195

Calculated Risk

APRIL 19, 2023

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond based on information collected on or before April 10, 2023." Overall economic activity was little changed in recent weeks. Several Districts noted that banks tightened lending standards amid increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity.

Marketing 188

Marketing Marketing Transportation Sales 188