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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

Yet, by taking a measured look at factors driving economic activity and influencing behavior, advisors can help clients face risks they can't control and (hopefully) position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they develop. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 244
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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

And even though numerous signs are pointing to the looming possibility of a more widespread economic downturn – including the reduction of household savings, reduced lending, and the resumption of student loan payments for many borrowers – the job market remains strong. And even though U.S.

Valuation 246
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4th Quarter 2023 Economic And Market Outlook: Labor Market, Inflation, And Geopolitics

Nerd's Eye View

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Moreover, historically extreme valuations in a small handful of mega-cap stocks that account for about 30% of the market weight in the S&P 500 (i.e.,

Economics 246
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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

American Prospect ) see also Six Ways Existing Economic Models Are Killing the Economy : The alleged science doesn’t match up to the real world. Alex Murrell ) • UBS Chairman’s Top-Secret Prep Paid Off in Credit Suisse Moment : Colm Kelleher was ready when a crisis of confidence that started in US regional banking spread to Switzerland.

Valuation 298
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Sunday links: the appeal of simple stories

Abnormal Returns

tker.co) You can't take historical stock market statistics to the bank. riabiz.com) Companies Nvidia's ($NVDA) valuation has gotten ahead of itself. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. Markets Wall Street strategists views on the market can differ in the short and long term.

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Wednesday links: an awesome product

Abnormal Returns

(marginalrevolution.com) Finance Private equity is stuck between elevated valuations high interest rates and a moribund IPO market. apolloacademy.com) How much longer can banks and office owners push out loan expirations? institutionalinvestor.com) How rising interest rates have affected interest coverage ratios for leveraged loans.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

( Financial Times ) • How Cash-Needy Private Companies Are Avoiding Dreaded Down Rounds : Few rules govern private markets, but some companies’ confidential maneuvers to bypass a valuation hit could raise eyebrows. He joined RenMac after spending seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, where he was a Sr. One can’t not notice.