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Rather than engage in futility, let’s look at the coincident indexes in all 50 states over the past 3 months, via the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (October 2023). Note: I have been occasionally eyeballing this map since 2008 , and it does a good job of showing the overall trend of the economy (on an obvious lag).
The transcript from this weeks, MiB: Melissa Smith, co-Head of Commercial Banking at JPMorgan , is below. Melissa Smith is co-head of commercial banking for JP Morgan. Previously she was co-head of the bank’s Innovation Economy Group. Barry Ritholtz : This week on the podcast I have yet another extra special guest.
It is especially true for strategists and forecasters at large brokers and banks. So as strategists at Bank of America Corp., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., So as strategists at Bank of America Corp., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.,
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The only chart you need to concern yourself with now if you’re trying to figure out where the economy is heading. trillion business (approximately) for banks all over the country. This is it. Construction and Industrial (C&I) loans are a $2.8 If they roll over, we have a soft landing.
It should also not be ignored that this survey is following the banking scare. This is not the same economy as the pre-Covid era. This is not the same economy as the pre-Covid era. This is the economy of “pushing price” and finding that marginal dollar. There is a sense that the banking scare solved the inflation problem.
Banking The number of bank branches in the U.S. bloomberg.com) Economy The housing and manufacturing sectors are both range-bound. peaked in 2012. sherwood.news) Where SVB's business stands as JP Morgan ($JPM) looks to make inroads. bloomberg.com) ETFs Where active ETFs are growing fastest.
Since it’s been a few months, I thought we could take a quick look at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indicators out for both January and February 2024.1 As the charts above show, the economy on a state-by-state basis has markedly improved from Q4 2023’s softening.
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The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. ” We have heard the S-word from Jamie Dimon , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bank of America , Barclays , Fox , Marketwatch , Kiplingers , and many others.
The spectacular blow-up currently taking place at SVB and its primary subsidiary, Silicon Valley Bank, is the biggest story in the markets this week. As Jim Cramer put it last night, the Federal Reserve has been firing a machine gun at the economy for the last 12 months but it hasn’t hit anything yet.
Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the May FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year, followed by a moderately paced recovery. emphasis added
economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Kidding aside, Tim Harford reminds us that “In 2008, the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009.” ” Why? .”
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Taking rates to the 1.50%-1.75% range had some bite, and we see the impact of this higher cost of credit combined with inflation impacting the economy. See also : State Coincident Indexes ( Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia , July 27, 2022). “For the entire United States. Real wholesale + retail sales. Real consumer spending.
Morgan , where she is co-head of commercial banking. Previously, she was co-Head of Innovation Economy and Head of Specialized Industries, She has been with JPM Chase for more than 20 years, working with founders, entrepreneurs and startups.
blog.johnwallstreet.com) EconomyBank credit is still tight. (etf.com) Sports business Sports betting companies are looking for new ways to get your money. cnn.com) Can a sports league have too much inventory? disciplinefunds.com) Everybody's experience with inflation is different.
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Rising rates, falling savings, increased deficits, dubious GDP : Ever since the yield curve inverted and warnings of “imminent recession” filled the air, the Philly Fed’s map of State Coincident Indexes has provided a good real-time snapshot of the state of the economy. Previously : Are We in a Recession? (No)
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Yes Bank vs IDFC Bank : Banks are the economic engine. The higher the asset quality of banks, the better the state of the economy. Banks facilitate the flow of money in markets following monetary policy, which determines the economy’s growth and decline. 7,250 crores at Rs.
My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • The Fed’s anti-inflation work is almost done, with an assist from the banking crisis. My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • The Fed’s anti-inflation work is almost done, with an assist from the banking crisis. Irrelevant Investor ) • What’s eating Deutsche Bank? MSNBC ). •
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These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration.
Top clicks this week Rising rates are still working their way through the markets and economy. theirrelevantinvestor.com) Ten reasons why SVB failed including 'The whole banking system is a bizarre confidence trick.' allisonschrager.substack.com) Surprises shouldn't be surprising. dariusforoux.com) Energy stocks are now struggling.
Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank : The concept of Small Finance Banks (SFB) was introduced in India in 2015. SFBs also promote savings by providing a higher interest rate compared to full-service banks like HDFC and Kotak. In this article on fundamental analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank. Lakh Lives.
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Since the last projections were released, the economy has performed close to FOMC expectations. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2024 2025 2026 Mar 2024 2.0 Statement here. Here are the projections. Dec 2023 1.2 Dec 2023 1.2 The unemployment rate was at 3.9%
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(wsj.com) How Charles Schwab ($SCHW) is changing its banking business. spyglass.org) Economy Industrial production rose in June. riabiz.com) Apple Taboola is going to sell ads for Apple ($AAPL). axios.com) Om Malik, "Apple’s decision to strike a deal with Taboola is shocking and off-brand."
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