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Ten Economic Questions for 2025

Calculated Risk

economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. There is also the potential for significant policy mistakes, but for now I'm assuming any policy changes will not significantly impact the economy in 2025. How much will the economy grow in 2025? Q4-over-Q4).

Economics 290
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Ten Economic Questions for 2023

Calculated Risk

economy will perform in 2023, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 - to adjust my thinking. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably under 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? 2) Employment: Through November 2022, the economy added 4.3

Economics 347
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Monday links: the ultimate anecdote

Abnormal Returns

(wsj.com) How home buying is going to change with a new commission regime. thebasispoint.com) Economy National homebuilder confidence ticked up in March. econbrowser.com) Strong economy? insights.finominal.com) Disruption of the Suez Canal is real. apolloacademy.com) Food inflation is set to slow in 2024. Thank immigrants.

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A Few Comments on Q2 GDP and Investment

Calculated Risk

This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy. In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures.

Investing 352
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Thursday links: avoiding permanent losses

Abnormal Returns

pionline.com) Advertising If the economy were bad, companies would be cutting back on advertising. bloomberg.com) Economy How to judge what a 'soft landing' looks like. cnbc.com) Is change finally coming to realtor commissions? (carsongroup.com) Fund management Why it's hard for investors to quit Blackrock ($BLK).

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Thursday links: big secular forces

Abnormal Returns

hunterwalk.com) Home buying New home sales commission rules are coming into effect. sherwood.news) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims are not heading higher. (nytimes.com) Finance It seems the SEC will approve just about any ETF these days. ft.com) What VC returns look like in the real world.

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: U.S. economy will escape recession, new European Commission forecast says

MarketWatch

economy will avoid recession this year and next, according to the latest European Commission forecast. economy to grow 1.4% The forecast is for the U.S. in 2023 and 1% in 2024, against its previous estimate that the U.S. will grow 0.7% in 2023 and 1.7% this year and by 1.6%