This site uses cookies to improve your experience. To help us insure we adhere to various privacy regulations, please select your country/region of residence. If you do not select a country, we will assume you are from the United States. Select your Cookie Settings or view our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Cookie Settings
Cookies and similar technologies are used on this website for proper function of the website, for tracking performance analytics and for marketing purposes. We and some of our third-party providers may use cookie data for various purposes. Please review the cookie settings below and choose your preference.
Used for the proper function of the website
Used for monitoring website traffic and interactions
Cookie Settings
Cookies and similar technologies are used on this website for proper function of the website, for tracking performance analytics and for marketing purposes. We and some of our third-party providers may use cookie data for various purposes. Please review the cookie settings below and choose your preference.
Strictly Necessary: Used for the proper function of the website
Performance/Analytics: Used for monitoring website traffic and interactions
The worries are growing, from a potentially slowing economy, to a growing and more aggressive trade war, to worries over Washington policy. Then five years ago we shut down our economy during a once-a-century pandemic. The economy created 151,000 jobs in February, more or less consistent with expectations.
Good Riddance, February The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, and large cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. We continue to think the bull market is alive and well and the economy is on solid footing, but that doesnt mean we wont have scary headlines or worries. Heres the thing.
Optimism over lower taxes, a stronger economy, animal spirits, and strong earnings all were likely reasons for the surge. The economy created 227,000 jobs in November, close to expectations, which somewhat made up for the low 36,000 number in October (revised up from 12,000). For reference, the 2019 average was 166,000.
Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. The economy created over 2 million jobs in 2024, down from 2.4
The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4%
Economic data last week showed the economy slowing more than expected, adding to worries about a potential recession. Monthly nonfarm payrolls came in weak, adding to the worries about the overall strength of the economy. Lower rates could provide a jump to the economy on both fronts.
The economy remains strong, the consumer is healthy, the wall of worry is intact, and manufacturing is bottoming. The Consumer Is Strong We’ve been hearing for two years that the consumer was tapped out and the economy was headed for a recession. Stocks rallied again last week and are now up four weeks in a row.
May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. We see many clues inflation should continue to slow, including prices paid on manufacturing and services both coming in lower than expected last week, as did unit labor costs after a strong downward revision. What else could spark a stock rally?
The economy continues to surprise to the upside, as we will discuss more below. With earnings hitting new highs and the economy continuing to expand, it’s no wonder stocks have hit 42 new all-time highs in 2024. The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.4% The reason for the rally? But let’s not lose sight of the big picture.
economy has accelerated over the past year, defying calls of recession amid the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes. In sum: Not only is there no recession, but the economy does not even appear to be headed for a “landing” at this point. Right now, it says the economy grew 2.4% Recent data suggest a major slowdown is not in the cards.
The economy overall remained firm and the consumer quite healthy all along, but the realization that inflation was no longer a headwind prompted stocks to rise. Fed officials are now acknowledging that inflation can fall even as the economy remains strong and unemployment stays low. What sparked the historic rally? over the last six.
A Dovish Fed Signals Rate Cuts Amid a Strong Economy — That’s Bullish The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at its March meeting, but the headline takeaway was that the median official continues to project three interest rate cuts in 2024, each worth 0.25%. That’s a big jump and acknowledgement that the economy is strong.
Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. The economy ran above trend last year, despite high interest rates. Economy: This Time Was Different, and That’s a Big Deal The U.S. economy grew 5.8% And that is what is happening now.
Although many were worried, the economy remained quite strong and odds were high the Fed was done hiking rates. The economy is normalizing, which could loosen tight financial conditions and boost cyclical activity. The October payroll report indicates the economy is slowing from its red-hot pace.
While some cracks may be forming, the economy remains on firm footing. Our Leading Economic Indicators Still Point to a Strong Economy A couple of softer-than-expected economic report cards recently came in — first quarter GDP growth and the April payroll report — and suddenly, calls for an impending recession have resumed.
That is more than the economy needs to keep up with population growth. That’s encouraging for consumption and the economy. The Labor Market Is Also Normalizing At the beginning of the year, we labeled our 2023 outlook “The Edge of Normal” as we expected markets and the economy to normalize in 2023.
At the same time, we do not expect Fed members to even hint that they’re thinking about cutting rates any time soon, especially since the economy continues to show strength, as evidenced by relatively strong retail sales and industrial production data last week. This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC.
We believe the odds of a recession remain low, with continued income growth, a recovery in rate-sensitive cyclical areas of the economy, and untapped potential for productivity gains helping to support the expansion. Market participants, strategists, policymakers, and the economy rarely saw eye to eye.
As long-time followers of this commentary know, we’ve been quite bullish on both the stock market and the economy for well over a year now. but all major economies based on their individual economic sensitivities, which we can then roll up to regional and global leading indicators. Could stocks fall in April? While our U.S.
As we will discuss below in more detail, we still believe the US economy is just fine. While retail sales drew the most interest, there was a flood of economic data yesterday and there were some signs that the Fed’s tight policy continues to weigh on the economy. Yes, it might be slowing some, but slowing doesn’t mean a recession.
The economy surprised, the consumer remained resilient, stocks soared, and even bonds did well on the year thanks to a late-innings rally. The Manufacturing Renaissance is Here Sonu Varghese, VP and Global Macro Strategist I’ve never seen an economic chart like this, especially one related to factory construction.
We continue to believe the economy is strong. There are positives, including a Fed that may be done with rate hikes, lower inflation, a rebound in manufacturing, and a strong labor market. companies are re-shoring a record number of manufacturing jobs. Stocks had a strong first quarter, even though the path wasn’t easy.
The big picture is the economy is normalizing. Big Picture: The Economy Is Normalizing We started this year discussing how the economy has been at the “edge of normal” in our 2023 outlook. The individual country LEIs are subsequently rolled up into a global index to give us a picture of the global economy.
Carson’s leading economic index indicates the economy is not in a recession. The bottom line is many bears have been proven wrong, as the economy continued to surprise to the upside, inflation came back to earth, and overall earnings estimates increased. At Carson, we aren’t crazy about this definition of a bull market.
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Congress is close to passing a $52 Billion subsidy for the Chip industry to on shore semiconductor manufacturing here in the United States. Most have a compliance division to monitor employee trading. It’s morally wrong and Americans should demand an end to it. Just ask Martha Stewart.
We Aren’t Alone Anymore A year ago, we told anyone who would listen that the economy would likely avoid a recession and stocks were going to have a great year. Since avoiding a recession is normal, falling concern about the economy isn’t contrarian in itself, but we do lose some extra fuel from bearish views unwinding.
Even though inflation has come back quickly (more on that below), wages growing faster than inflation, small business sentiment is improving, consumer sentiment is improving, housing bottoming, manufacturing bottoming, and a consumer that is incredibly resilient, there is still plenty of worry to go around.
But instead, stocks had one of their best six-month starts and the economy shows no signs of slowing. Business investment is rising once again, and that’s a big deal for the economy. The resurgence of manufacturing construction in the U.S. They also signal future production commitments for manufacturers.
This was primarily due to the lack of economies of scale in our country which is required to bring down the cost of chemicals at international prices. Economies of scale make a big difference in chemicals as by-products of one plant become raw materials for other plants. SRF gets 43% of its revenue from the chemical business.
Some of the corporations played important roles in the Indian economy in sectors such as energy, manufacturing, defense, and infrastructure, greatly contributing to national development and industrial progress. This, in turn, increases their domestic and international competitiveness, helping India’s economy flourish.
The company has established itself in 3 business verticals, Consulting : Environment Impact Assessment, ESG and Climate Change, Environmental Compliance, Environmental Due Diligence, DPR and designing, Training and sensitization, Environmental crime investigation.
Housing is making a sharp turnaround, and that’s very positive for the economy. The economy continues to surprise to the upside, with housing a potential wildcard that few are discussing. But this is also important: Housing has historically bottomed prior to the end of a recession and has typically led the economy out of one.
The economy has surprised to the upside and stocks had one of their best starts to a year. Resilient Economy May Be Accelerating Another month, another slew of economic data that not only shows the economy is resilient, but also that it may be accelerating. But the direction suggests much about how the economy is doing.
debt was downgraded for a second time in history, but we do not expect this to have much impact on the bull market or the strength of the economy. The economy is growing and normalizing. Lastly, the economy continues to surprise to the upside (discussed further below), so the timing of this downgrade is questionable. on average.
As we explain more below, the economy is presenting many positive signs that suggest a recession is unlikely, and stocks likely are sniffing this out. Manufacturing, especially vehicle production, is turning around. That’s why it’s an important metric for gauging where the economy is headed. Retail sales rebounded in April.
Services, manufacturing, and job openings all were weak, but the monthly jobs data (more below) was a bright spot. Then Silicon Valley Bank crashed in early March, raising fears the economy would buckle if a widespread banking crisis followed. Stocks were relatively flat last week in the face of weak economic data. Short answer: No.
Housing data is rallying, manufacturing is showing signs of a low, and the consumer is demonstrating incredible resilience. Recent sentiment polls show a high number of bears while worries about the economy and earnings continue to expand. Still, economic data is improving. One of the best reasons to be bullish is very few people are.
Conviction, so we look at, you know, whether or not a specific theme is something that we have a high degree of conviction that will be a trend, that will definitely have an impact in the economy over the next two or three decades. I mean, I always say it depends on the economies or the scale of the business that you are considering.
Why Adani companies are at the forefront of Indian Growth After a prolonged period of slowdown in the economy in 2019-20s, India went into recession in 2020 due to the Covid lockdown. With India’s economy poised to grow, there are many corporations to bank on the opportunity to make a quick buck. crore, Rajesh S Adani – 8.37
Digital full-stack insurers, such as Go Digit are insurance manufacturing companies focusing on integrating technology in their operations. among leading global economies, with the 2022 penetration rate of China and the United States at 1.9% This indicates a non-life insurance penetration rate of 1.0% and 9.0%, respectively.
As FPIs look for possibilities in India’s expanding economy, this trend keeps going. KFin Technologies leverages cutting-edge technology to enhance efficiency and ensure compliance, offering a range of services tailored to the needs of the financial sector. Price to Earnings Ratio 71.53
Still, one cannot ignore the number of private companies that have achieved meaningful size and scale in today’s relatively sluggish economy. While these markets are still relatively undeveloped and inefficient—partly because of the need to meet compliance requirements—they do provide limited liquidity for sellers. A New Model.
Note to self: The global economy has many more than 52 variables. ” We prefer to think linearly, manufacturing a storyline, in effect, with a beginning, middle, and end. As Han Solo said, “Never tell me the odds.” and the procedures by which you would reduce bias and reduce noise are not the same.
There are many disturbing parallels in today’s global economy. We were excited when we got the opportunity to invest in Danish medical device manufacturer Coloplast in September, our first new health care company since 2019. It is a “scale economies shared” business model where customers, the company and shareholders can all win.
We organize all of the trending information in your field so you don't have to. Join 36,000+ users and stay up to date on the latest articles your peers are reading.
You know about us, now we want to get to know you!
Let's personalize your content
Let's get even more personalized
We recognize your account from another site in our network, please click 'Send Email' below to continue with verifying your account and setting a password.
Let's personalize your content