Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 11, 2023

It is important to remember that stocks lead the economy, both on the way up and the way down. To us, this is the market’s way of saying the economy will continue to see solid growth next year. Stocks tend to lead the economy, and several major indexes are near new highs, which is a good signal for the economy.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 143

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4%

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 5, 2024

Economic data last week showed the economy slowing more than expected, adding to worries about a potential recession. Monthly nonfarm payrolls came in weak, adding to the worries about the overall strength of the economy. Lower rates could provide a jump to the economy on both fronts.

Marketing 141

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 141

Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

Good Riddance, February The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, and large cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. We continue to think the bull market is alive and well and the economy is on solid footing, but that doesnt mean we wont have scary headlines or worries. Heres the thing.

Marketing 76

Marketing Marketing Government Economy 76

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 9, 2023

The September payroll report confirms the economy is strong. Aggregate income is rising above the pace of inflation, and that’s powering the economy. Wage growth is easing, which should alleviate concerns that the economy is overheating. Expectations for a stronger economy are driving interest rates higher.

Marketing 134

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 134

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly. What Matters for the Economy: Consumption (and Incomes) Consumption runs on incomes, and the picture there is positive.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 143

Carson Wealth

APRIL 29, 2024

The Headline GDP Number Masks a Strong Economy The economy grew 1.6% Excluding these categories provides a much clearer picture of actual spending and production in the economy, i.e., final demand after adjusting for inflation. After adjusting for inflation, the economy is almost 1% larger than the CBO projected.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 97

Carson Wealth

JULY 31, 2023

After a large reversal Thursday, stocks bounced back Friday, bolstered by the continued impressive performance of the economy (further details below). Instead of saying the economy grew at a “modest” pace, Fed members said it’s growing at a “moderate” pace. Moderate” is Fedspeak for a strong economy. The economy grew 2.4%

Economy 52

Economy Marketing Marketing Compliance 52

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 4, 2023

The economy overall remained firm and the consumer quite healthy all along, but the realization that inflation was no longer a headwind prompted stocks to rise. Fed officials are now acknowledging that inflation can fall even as the economy remains strong and unemployment stays low. What sparked the historic rally? over the last six.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 96

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 16, 2024

We believe the odds of a recession remain low, with continued income growth, a recovery in rate-sensitive cyclical areas of the economy, and untapped potential for productivity gains helping to support the expansion. Market participants, strategists, policymakers, and the economy rarely saw eye to eye.

Investing 96

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 96

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

Let’s Not Get Too Excited Yet Yes, stocks hit new highs across the board last week on optimism about an economy that would likely avoid a recession and a Fed that was now cutting rates. All this is very positive for the economy. Full disclosure: we’re overweight these areas of the equity market in our model portfolios.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Carson Wealth

JULY 24, 2023

economy has accelerated over the past year, defying calls of recession amid the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes. In sum: Not only is there no recession, but the economy does not even appear to be headed for a “landing” at this point. Right now, it says the economy grew 2.4% Recent data suggest a major slowdown is not in the cards.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 98

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

The economy remains strong, the consumer is healthy, the wall of worry is intact, and manufacturing is bottoming. The Consumer Is Strong We’ve been hearing for two years that the consumer was tapped out and the economy was headed for a recession. Stocks rallied again last week and are now up four weeks in a row.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Retail 96

Carson Wealth

JULY 29, 2024

Q2 GDP Growth Confirms Economic Resilience The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% It’s a very solid, but not spectacular, number, just in the top half of all quarters since 2010, but looking at it in the context of the rate environment shows just how resilient the economy has been. almost broke the economy in 2019.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Transportation 97

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 8, 2024

A “Goldilocks” December jobs report highlights sustained momentum for the economy as it continues its path to normalization. Goldilocks Job Numbers as Economy Powers Ahead The December payroll report was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate firm at 3.7%. History says to expect it.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 30, 2023

While economic growth may have peaked in the third quarter, we expect the economy to remain supportive. With the economy on firm footing and sentiment turning pessimistic, we remain optimistic a significant year-end rally is still possible. The Energizer Bunny Economy You just can’t put this economy down. Despite the U.S.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 96

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 12, 2024

Taken together these numbers tell us that hiring has slowed but concerns about the economy have not led to a big pick-up in layoffs. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Numbers Economy 95

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 7, 2024

Strong Job Numbers Are Good News for the Economy and Markets There’s been valid concern that employment conditions are deteriorating, ever so slowly. If you combine wage growth with employment growth and hours worked, we get a sense of aggregate income growth across all workers in the economy. in April 2023 to 4.3% in 2019, 5.9%

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

The Fed made a big shift in its projections and is now much more bullish on the economy. Expectations for a stronger economy also mean the Fed is projecting fewer rate cuts next year. Two: Fed members are buying that the economy is strong. That is a huge shift and an acknowledgement that the economy is strong.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 96

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 29, 2024

Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. The economy ran above trend last year, despite high interest rates. Economy: This Time Was Different, and That’s a Big Deal The U.S. economy grew 5.8% And that is what is happening now.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 97

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

Although many were worried, the economy remained quite strong and odds were high the Fed was done hiking rates. The economy is normalizing, which could loosen tight financial conditions and boost cyclical activity. The October payroll report indicates the economy is slowing from its red-hot pace.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Carson Wealth

MARCH 4, 2024

The economy continues to appear in good shape. s consumer-driven economy. More Signs the Economy Is Holding Up Looking Under the Hood at Inflation On Thursday, we received inflation data from the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric of inflation. across 2018-2019.

Marketing 90

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 90

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

That is more than the economy needs to keep up with population growth. That’s encouraging for consumption and the economy. The Labor Market Is Also Normalizing At the beginning of the year, we labeled our 2023 outlook “The Edge of Normal” as we expected markets and the economy to normalize in 2023.

Marketing 89

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 89

Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

The bottom line is the economy is strong because the labor market is strong. The global economy was in shambles, and people were losing their jobs all around. The economy created 275,000 jobs in February, well above expectations for an increase of 200,000. Bank stocks were outright collapsing, with many down 90%.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Retirement 97

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 11, 2023

Strong wage growth and lower inflation have helped the economy stay resilient. Why Has the Economy Stayed Resilient? A large part of the economy’s resilience has to do with a strong labor market that has surprised many economists and market-watchers. September can be a rough month for stocks, but it doesn’t have to be bad.

Marketing 93

Marketing Marketing Government Economy 93

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 18, 2023

He once again emphasized that the risk of not doing enough to curb inflation was now balanced with the risk of holding rates too high for too long (and potentially breaking the economy in the process). Lower interest rates can have significant positive effects on the economy, including on mortgage rates.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Investing 96

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

At the same time, we do not expect Fed members to even hint that they’re thinking about cutting rates any time soon, especially since the economy continues to show strength, as evidenced by relatively strong retail sales and industrial production data last week. That will be a welcome break.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 96

Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 12, 2024

But now we have a healthy economy, well-contained inflation, a Federal Reserve set to cut rates, improving productivity, record earnings, and stocks at all-time highs. As we wrote in our 2024 Outlook, “Seeing Eye to Eye” ( download here ), productivity growth is a game-changer for the economy. equities in particular.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Investing 97

Carson Wealth

MAY 6, 2024

This Bull Market Is Still Young As we’ve been saying for close to 18 months, we think we are in a new bull market and the economy will avoid a recession over the coming year. The April jobs number showed a healthy job market while easing concerns that the economy is overheating. Not much has changed, and we still feel this way.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

ECONOMY The economy saw blockbuster productivity growth in the third quarter. ECONOMY: PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH COULD BE A GAME CHANGER Lost in all the consternation over a weak payroll report this month was robust productivity data, which was released earlier. But this was not because the productive capacity of the economy expanded.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Startup 96

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 16, 2024

The bottom line is if the economy was truly about to fall apart like so many economists keep telling us, we’d expect to see more weakness in high-yield bonds right here. Instead they are making more than two-year highs, yet another sign the economy is on firm footing despite what the nightly news tells you.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 96

Carson Wealth

MARCH 25, 2024

A Dovish Fed Signals Rate Cuts Amid a Strong Economy — That’s Bullish The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at its March meeting, but the headline takeaway was that the median official continues to project three interest rate cuts in 2024, each worth 0.25%. That’s a big jump and acknowledgement that the economy is strong.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 97

Carson Wealth

APRIL 1, 2024

As long-time followers of this commentary know, we’ve been quite bullish on both the stock market and the economy for well over a year now. but all major economies based on their individual economic sensitivities, which we can then roll up to regional and global leading indicators. Could stocks fall in April? While our U.S.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 97

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

The economy added 206,000 jobs in June, ahead of expectations of 190,000. Fortunately, the doers drive the economy; the thinkers only report on it. The economy created 206,000 jobs last month, above expectations for a 190,000 increase. These down cycles can adversely impact the productive capacity of the economy in future years.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

That is particularly meaningful because households have more income to spend elsewhere — keeping consumption and the economy humming. The positive news from the October CPI report is the economy is experiencing broad disinflation, and there’s more to come. The October “surprise” came on the back of lower gasoline prices, which fell 5%.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Distribution 96

Carson Wealth

MAY 13, 2024

While some cracks may be forming, the economy remains on firm footing. Our Leading Economic Indicators Still Point to a Strong Economy A couple of softer-than-expected economic report cards recently came in — first quarter GDP growth and the April payroll report — and suddenly, calls for an impending recession have resumed.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 97

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 22, 2024

For a broad view of our expectations for the economy, stocks, and bonds in 2024, download our 2024 Market Outlook. That bear eventually ended in October 2022, and since then stocks have defied many experts, who continually (and incorrectly) touted a weakening economy, tapped-out consumer, and many other reasons to doubt the new bull market.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Portfolio 97