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3%: Great Depression, GFC, 1970s & 2020s?

The Big Picture

Investors should be prepared for equity returns during the next decade that are towards the lower end of their typical performance distribution relative to bonds and inflation.” In other words, if you were forecasting 10-year returns of 3% annually, you are also forecasting an economic shitstorm of rare and historic proportions.

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Top 0.1%: How Much Wealth Does It Take?

The Big Picture

I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. Wealth Distribution Analysis (July 18, 2019). Wealth Distribution in America (April 11, 2019). Wages in America (2013-2021).

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Research links: a handy framework

Abnormal Returns

papers.ssrn.com) Media (economic) sentiment has gotten increasingly negative over the past 50 years. blogs.cfainstitute.org) A review of recent research on fail-tailed distributions. (institutionalinvestor.com) Macro There seems to be a macroeconomic announcement premium. papers.ssrn.com) Do ESG disclosures affect consumer behavior?

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4 Economic Charts That Might Surprise You

A Wealth of Common Sense

Here’s the chart: And the explanation: For households in every quintile (or fifth) of the income distribution, the share of inc. The Congressional Budget Office released new research comparing inflation on a basket of goods and services households at different income levels consume between now and 2019 along with changes in wages.

Economics 137
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Sunday links: addressing existential challenges

Abnormal Returns

humbledollar.com) Companies Nvidia ($NVDA) has succeeded with a distributed workforce. theweek.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. Strategy The math on the 60/40 portfolio looks a lot different than it did a year ago. awealthofcommonsense.com) There is a difference between picking and choosing. labor market is slowing.

Math 264
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Wealth Inequality Starts at the Top

The Big Picture

Source: FRED Wealth disparities get ever more lopsided the higher up the economic strata you climb; there is more disparity with the top 1% than the top 10%, but the biggest spreads are at the top 0.1% (and above). Consider the chart at top, created by Invictus via FRED.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: 20 IRA Mistakes to Avoid : From contributions to conversions to distributions, dont fall into these traps. Economically speaking,America is already great. ( Morningstar ) Lets Talk About Tariffs : So. Tariff Man is back and apparently more serious than ever. At least for now.