Calculated Risk

MARCH 19, 2025

FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook.

Economics 262

Economics Accounting Marketing Marketing 262

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 29, 2025

Podcasts Christine Benz and Dan Lefkovitz talk with John Rekenthaler about his long career writing about investing. morningstar.com) Peter Lazaroff on how much money you need to retire. peterlazaroff.com) Family Every decision we make has trade-offs: the case for staying home to care for small children.

Economics 173

Economics Retirement Financial Advisor Investments 173

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 17, 2025

podcasts.apple.com) Katie Gatti Tassin talks about the economics of weight loss drugs. (forbes.com) Economy Danny Crichton talks with Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber authors of the new book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." youtube.com) Stephen Dubner on the crisis facing residential real estate brokers.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Investments Investing 162

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 23, 2023

Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago) 1) The Unemployment Rate is Below 4% The unemployment rate was at 3.9% in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the highest since the Great Depression). The unemployment rate is up from 3.7%

Economics 328

Economics 328

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 1, 2025

Congrestion pricing Congestion pricing eases traffic and is also a revenue raiser. thecity.nyc) Frazer Rice talks the history of congestion pricing with Nicole Gelinas, author of "Movement: New Yorks Long War to Take Back Its Streets From the Car." frazerrice.com) Environment Heat and drought are hard to mitigate.

Economics 147

Economics Food Media Economy 147

Abnormal Returns

JULY 19, 2024

bloomberg.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks 'harsh economic truths' with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. (theringer.com) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk wtih Jim Millstein, co-chair of Guggenheim Securities, about a novel way to boost home construction.

Economics 261

Economics Startup Communication Economy 261

Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 26, 2024

No single asset can promise complete security, but gold has a proven track record of maintaining its value in times of economic turbulence.

Economics 277

Economics Assets 277

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 2, 2024

What is the role your charitable clients can play in the economic development of disadvantaged communities and how does the IRS view charitable activities that can support it? Join this session with Foundation Source’s Chief Legal Officer Jeffrey Has

Economics 264

Economics Clients 264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 7, 2025

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 Census Bureau and the U.S. billion in November , up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October, revised. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion, $11.6

Economics 254

Economics 254

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2025

A couple of participants judged that positive sentiment in financial markets and momentum in economic activity could continue to put upward pressure on inflation. All participants judged that uncertainty about the scope, timing, and economic effects of potential changes in policies affecting foreign trade and immigration was elevated.

Economics 273

Economics Accounting Financial Market Numbers 273

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 1, 2025

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). in November, up from 3.7%

Economics 272

Economics Sales Investments Investing 272

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.36 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.36 YoY in December.

Numbers 278

Numbers Economics 278

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 15, 2024

 This week, we speak with Colin Camerer , Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at California Institute of Technology. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and holds fellowship at the Econometric Society and the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory.

Portfolio Management 316

Portfolio Management Economics Portfolio Assets 316

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

Bureau of Economic Analysis. The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, October 2024 report for October: Personal income increased $147.4 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in October , according to estimates released today by the U.S. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $144.1

Food 303

Food Taxes Economics 303

Wealth Management

MARCH 21, 2024

Financial advisors’ optimism over the economy and the markets ticked marginally up in February, dampened only by persistent inflation and uncertainty over upcoming national elections.

Economics 290

Economics Financial Advisor Economy Marketing 290

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 13, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the evolution in aggregate debt to income ratios and what that suggests about Americans’ ability to manage their debt obligations.

Economics 309

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 309

Wealth Management

JANUARY 14, 2025

Nonetheless, investors should focus on building portfolios that are "antifragile." "

Economics 289

Economics Portfolio 289

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 8, 2024

The Federal Reserve’s signaling to market that their next moves will be rate cuts actually makes it more difficult to cut rates.

Economics 288

Economics Marketing Marketing 288

The Big Picture

MARCH 14, 2025

This week, I speak with Stephanie Kelton , Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Stony Brook University and Senior Fellow at the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis. Senate Budget Committee, and was senior economic adviser for Bernie Sanders 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns.

Economics 182

Economics Budgeting Economy 182

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 2, 2024

The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates. -- Monday, November 4th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, November 5th -- All day: U.S. Election 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the deficit to be $73.5 billion in September, from $70.4 billion in August.

Economics 272

Economics 272

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $84.4 Census Bureau and the U.S. billion in September , up $13.6 billion from $70.8 billion in August, revised. September exports were $267.9 billion, $3.2 billion, $10.3

Economics 200

Economics 200

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Goods exports were softer than suggested by the Advance Economic Indicators report, while wholesale inventories were slightly firmer. [Mar 7th] emphasis added From Goldman: The details of the trade balance report indeed indicated that elevated gold imports contributed the bulk of increase in imports in January. percent on March 6, up from -2.8

Economics 180

Economics Management Investments Investing 180

The Big Picture

MARCH 7, 2025

Prior to this role at BCG, Philipp advised financial institutions and governments at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as well as McKinsey & Company. He is a frequent contributor to Harvard Business Review and World Economic Forum. He was also Chief Economist at Stanford C.

Economics 162

Economics Budgeting Consulting Government 162

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 18, 2024

Separate lawsuits have LPL Financial and Ameriprise Financial battling over advisors leaving, claiming breach of contract and misuse of confidential client information.

Recruitment 298

Recruitment Economics Clients 298

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 27, 2024

statnews.com) Economy Where does economic growth come from? conversableeconomist.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (advisorperspectives.com) In many states a rape exception is no help at all. npr.org) How the alcohol lobby has kept higher taxes at bay. awealthofcommonsense.com) R&D spending in the U.S. is booming.

Financial Advising 293

Financial Advising Economics Media Taxes 293

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investments 345

MainStreet Financial Planning

MARCH 12, 2025

Economic uncertaintywhether it’s due to market volatility, rising inflation, or potential recessionscan feel overwhelming. Here are five practical tactics to help retirees weather economic uncertainty: Take a Break from the News Constantly consuming news and social media can lead to unnecessary panic.

Economics 56

Economics Asset Allocation Financial Planning Taxes 56

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook. Economic output grew by more than 3 percent last year and is expanding at a stout 2.5 Ultimately, the path of the policy rate will depend on how the incoming data and the economic outlook evolve. percent rate so far this year. emphasis added

Economy 147

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2025

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Friday. -- Monday, March 3rd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. 12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report.

Sales 162

Sales Economics Manufacturing Government 162

Wealth Management

FEBRUARY 28, 2025

can raise a lot of revenue by selling the right to immigrate, but it should also be more open to those who cant afford it.

Economics 208

Economics 208

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 8, 2024

 This week, we speak with New York Times Global Economic Correspondent Peter Goodman. Prior to the New York Times, Peter began his career as a freelance writer in Southeast Asia before serving as The Washington Post’s Asia Economic Correspondent and later Shanghai Bureau Chief.

Economics 189

Economics Management 189

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2025

Uncertainty shapes economic cycles fueling booms, triggering busts, and driving debates about what comes next. Uncertainty abounds in the railroad industry too, where evolving demand, market conditions, and economic policies constantly create both challenges and opportunities. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 162

Wealth Management

JANUARY 27, 2025

RIAs' belief in the future of the economy grew for the fourth straight month, even as the post-election bump in market sentiment faded slightly.

Economics 257

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 257

Calculated Risk

MARCH 6, 2025

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 Census Bureau and the U.S. billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised. January exports were $269.8 billion, $3.3 billion, $36.6

Economics 147

Economics 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.

Clients 270

Clients Investments Investing Numbers 270

The Big Picture

MARCH 18, 2025

This is as true for professionals as it is for amateurs; it’s also true in music, film, sports, television, and economic and market forecasting. Economic Innumeracy : Some individuals experience math anxiety, but it only takes a bit of insight to navigate the many ways numbers can mislead us. Bad Numbers : 4.

Investments 317

Investments Investing Math Media 317

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 12, 2024

Falling interest rates and the disappearance of a valuation gap with private real estate should also add tailwinds for publicly listed real estate.

Economics 266

Economics Valuation 266