The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

In other words, if you were forecasting 10-year returns of 3% annually, you are also forecasting an economic shitstorm of rare and historic proportions. I do believe that the economic gains we are going to see in technology justify higher market prices. But that’s a very different discussion than 3% annually for 10 years.

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Economy 326

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. While we may not be in a recession yet, economic momentum has clearly slowed. The technical academic answer is we are not in a recession, but we are clearly slowing down economically.

Economics 321

Economics Banking Retail Economy 321

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else. They may be terrible economic forecasters but give them credit for not burying bad predictions like so many on Wall Street tend to do. Go to the Fed’s website, and search for “ Summary of Economic Projections.”

Economics 325

Economics Financial Market Marketing Marketing 325

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 20, 2023

With a clean and simple interface, it puts all of the key economic indicators the FOMC tracks — Real GDP Growth, Unemployment Rate, PCE Inflation, Core PCE Inflation, and the Federal Funds Rate — in one convenient location. Very useful dashboard via the St. Louis Fed, which maintains the fabulous FRED database.

Economics 306

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 306

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 25, 2024

Vance's hometown of Middletown, OH is experiencing an economic turnaround. papers.ssrn.com) Is economic globalization really going in reverse? apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. jacobin.com) The Midwest is thrust into the middle of this election season. politico.com) The U.S.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 278

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 8, 2024

econbrowser.com) The Fed is always dealing with economic crosscurrents. tker.co) Why economic data is iffier: lower response rates. apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (nytimes.com) Economy The risks of a recession are rising. carsongroup.com) Employment growth is slowing.

Marketing 279

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economics 279

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 13, 2024

rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Cities Detroit is experiencing an economic rebound. vox.com) Economic warfare doesn't work out how you would think. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (humbledollar.com) Fund management Why personalization could be coming for target date funds. reason.com) The U.S.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Government Economics Media 279

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 15, 2024

pnas.org) Economics Has the economics profession gotten too insular? econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (wsj.com) Buffered ETFs keep gaining assets. etf.com) Immigration What the data says about immigration levels. slowboring.com) On the benefits of high-skilled immigration on entrepreneurship.

Marketing 276

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Media 276

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. From a purely economic perspective, these first few crashes were meaningless. I had zero dollars in the market and was deep in student loan debt.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Still, I cannot help but observe that the FOMC response to pandemic-induced inflation is blunt, excessive and unnecessarily painful to the middle and lower economic earners. Liberty Street Economics, August 24, 2022).

Medicine 363

Medicine Economics Medical Economy 363

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2024

These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. They are based on historical data that looks at 200 Years of Market Concentration. You might be surprised at the findings. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration.

Marketing 316

Marketing Marketing Engineering Economics 316

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2024

If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” The economic collapse during the GFC sent this back over 15 briefly and spiked again during Covid over 10.

Advertising 321

Advertising Economics Economy Banking 321

Abnormal Returns

JULY 19, 2024

(wsj.com) Economics Q2 GDP is tracking around 2%. carsongroup.com) Political partisanship is working its way into real economic data. ft.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: harsh economic truths. calculatedriskblog.com) Is it even possible to weaken the U.S. ft.com) Three sectors in the U.S.

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Media Economics Manufacturing 263

Abnormal Returns

MAY 12, 2024

vox.com) Economy Some signs of economic caution. klementoninvesting.substack.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. Why isn't anyone talking about it? reason.com) America's prison population is rapidly aging. bonddad.blogspot.com) Capitalism is under threat from both sides.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Economy Economics Media 279

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. ft.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (wsj.com) As small towns empty out, it gets more difficult to maintain services. wsj.com) In praise of the public pool. axios.com) Tech jobs are moving out of California.

License 290

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 290

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 14, 2024

washingtonpost.com) Measuring economic inequality is harder than it looks. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (nber.org) Policy Obvious societal issue remain in the wide open, but nobody does anything about them. vox.com) Threats of violence against elected officials and government officials are on the rise.

Financial Advising 290

Financial Advising Engineering Food Economics 290

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a Traditional economic consensus used to be inflation occurred when too many dollars chased too few goods.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? But there is a tomorrow and my expectations are that if the Fed overtightens (as they appear on track to do) then the next 12 months will be less economically robust than the prior 12. Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4?

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

The Big Picture

JUNE 13, 2024

And second, always recall what Joan Robinson taught us so long ago: “The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.” They are playing a different game, and you are collateral damage.

Food 305

Food Numbers Economics Portfolio 305

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 12, 2023

(econbrowser.com) Any economic slowdown is coming with consumers in pretty good shape. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Economic activity continues to shift toward these four Sunbelt cities. nytimes.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. tker.co) On the divergence between consumer sentiment and the economy.

Financial Advising 285

Financial Advising Economics Economy Manufacturing 285

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

econbrowser.com) The economic data through July were largely positive. apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (wsj.com) Economy Q3 GDP is tracking mid-2% growth. nytimes.com) Instantaneous core PCE is running at 2.2%. axios.com) On the potential impact of Fed rate cuts.

Financial Advising 295

Financial Advising Valuation Economy Economics 295

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

alphaarchitect.com) Hong Kong went from a standout on economic freedom to laggard. (alphaarchitect.com) The Achilles heel of momentum strategies is tail risk. morningstar.com) Options momentum is a thing. capitalspectator.com)

Economics 291

Economics Portfolio Marketing Marketing 291

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 24, 2024

clearerthinking.org) Research How identifying economic regimes can help in portfolio allocation. Statistics Comparing the Sharpe and Sortino ratios. caia.org) Correlations, 101. alphaarchitect.com) What investors get wrong about high quality stocks. caia.org) You don't need individual securities to get the benefits of tax loss harvesting.

Taxes 270

Taxes Economics Portfolio 270

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 9, 2023

nytimes.com) Economics Claudia Goldin has won the 2023 Nobel Prize in Economics. (wsj.com) CRE Even Texas's office buildings are seeing high vacancy rates. wsj.com) You think moving out of an apartment is a hassle, check out what needs to be done vacating office space.

Financial Advising 288

Financial Advising Media Economics Banking 288

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 15, 2023

Note: We deploy many of these solutions at RWM that take advantage of our knowledge of behavioral economics.) The Satellite is whatever personal stink you wanna decorate that tree with: Maybe you’re a fan of venture capital or private equity; perhaps you think India is the next great economic powerhouse; AI?

Investing 344

Investing Investments Portfolio Economics 344

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 9, 2024

wsj.com) Investing in ports has positive spillover economic effects. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (nytimes.com) Russia's population has been shrinking for decades. wsj.com) Policy What happens if the 2017 tax cuts lapse. papers.ssrn.com) Efforts to modernize the USPS are off to a rocky start.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Budgeting Economics Media 279

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 15, 2024

 This week, we speak with Colin Camerer , Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at California Institute of Technology. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and holds fellowship at the Econometric Society and the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory.

Portfolio Management 316

Portfolio Management Economics Portfolio Assets 316

Abnormal Returns

JULY 14, 2024

nbcnews.com) Economy An economic soft landing is still on track. dallasfed.org) The economic schedule for the coming week. (bloomberg.com) Metal thieves are stripping America's cities. nytimes.com) Unintentional shootings by children are on the rise. tker.co) Surging immigration has not boosted inflation.

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Economics Government Media 262

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

The entire discussion is worth watching, but the video below is teed up for the economic forecasting discussion. Economic Forecasts: What’s the Probability of a Recession in 2024? Previously : Slowing U.S. Economy, State by State (November 22, 2023) Can Economists Predict Recessions?

Economy 288

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 288

Abnormal Returns

JULY 12, 2024

vox.com) Global Tyler Cowen talks with Brian Winter discuss the politics and economics of nearly every country from the equator down. conversationswithtyler.com) Russell Napier talks with Harold James, author of "Seven Crashes: The Economic Crises That Shaped Globalisation." (linkedin.com) Spotify ($SPOT) has a bundling problem.

Portfolio Management 265

Portfolio Management Economics Management Portfolio 265

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 23, 2023

” That poor belief system has disadvantaged America — it has made us economically weaker, prevented the country from performing basic maintenance on its infrastructure, and generally made it a harsher place to live. Note that we undertook much of the work anyway (airports, electrical grid, roads, etc.),

Government 334

Government Economics Taxes Budgeting 334

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (bbc.com) Belarus is complicit in the abduction of Ukrainian children. npr.org) Human population may soon peak. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturing economy is bumping along.

Financial Advising 285

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 285

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 25, 2022

We don’t have a hundred biases, we have the wrong model : Behavioral economics today is famous for its increasingly large collection of deviations from rationality, or, as they are often called, ‘biases’. Rather, we need to develop new theories of human decision to progress behavioral economics as a science. Sparkline Capital ). •

Economics 312

Economics Startup Management Food 312

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 8, 2024

nber.org) How to extract economic data from the Wall Street Journal. (alphaarchitect.com) Volatility and anxiety are not the same thing. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Using AI to better explain past financial market returns. alphaarchitect.com) Some academic research that has informed our understanding of market returns.

Economics 267

Economics Financial Market Marketing Marketing 267

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 7, 2024

(theverge.com) Economy Ezra Klein talks with Annie Lowery about the growing economic disconnect. theatlantic.com) Michael Klein talks with David Rapson about the economics of EV adoption. podcasts.apple.com) Jerusalem Demsas talks with Natalia Emanuel on whether remote work actually works for women.

Economy 265

Economy Economics Investing Investments 265

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 24, 2023

citywire.com) Economy Five economic reasons to be thankful including 'Low unemployment claims.' econbrowser.com) Falling response rates are putting economic data quality at-risk. (riaintel.com) In the next few months passive funds will have more market share than active funds.

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Economics Media Taxes 262

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

Peter Mallouk points out that investments made on days of all-time highs outperform investments made on all other days, Technicians will tell you All-Time Highs are bullish, because there is no selling resistance; behavioral economics suggests it’s bullish due to FOMO and plain old greed.

Economics 349

Economics Marketing Marketing Investing 349