Calculated Risk

APRIL 16, 2025

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Those policies are still evolving, and their effects on the economy remain highly uncertain. emphasis added

Economy 222

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 222

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 17, 2025

forbes.com) Economy Danny Crichton talks with Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber authors of the new book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." podcasts.apple.com) Katie Gatti Tassin talks about the economics of weight loss drugs. (engadget.com) Do you really want to listen to AI podcast hosts?

Economics 157

Economics Economy Investments Investing 157

The Big Picture

APRIL 15, 2025

The US remains the global economic, military, and political leader. Later in the year, encouraged by improving CPI data and minimal economic disruption, the FOMC resumes its rate-cutting regime. Some damage gets done to the US economy and trade relations. We have sticky, stubborn stagflation, a very unpleasant economic scenario.

Economics 318

Economics Economy Communication Marketing 318

Abnormal Returns

JULY 19, 2024

bloomberg.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks 'harsh economic truths' with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. theringer.com) Julia LaRoche talks with Tyler Cowen about how AI will change society and the economy. youtube.com) James Pethokoukis talks with Mike Goff about the state of US nuclear power.

Economics 258

Economics Startup Communication Economy 258

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

economy may be dampening demand and price appreciation. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added just 12,000 jobs in October 2024, the fewest in almost four years. Besides the uncertainty regarding the U.S. election and mortgage rate volatility, the mixed signals around the current state of the U.S.

Economy 254

Economy Numbers Economics Marketing 254

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: The recent performance of our economy has been remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world. Economic output grew by more than 3 percent last year and is expanding at a stout 2.5 percent rate so far this year. emphasis added

Economy 147

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 147

The Big Picture

MARCH 24, 2025

As Paul Krugman recently wrote on his excellent Substack , using a chart identical to the one immediately above (Paul used FRED ): “People may imagine that government is a bigger part of the economy than it is because of all the money we spend supporting retired Americans, covering their health bills, and so on [Chart 1].

Government 310

Government Investing Investments Economy 310

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 3, 2024

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 244

Economics Marketing Marketing Valuation 244

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023. million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2024?

Economics 226

Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

Wealth Management

MARCH 21, 2024

Financial advisors’ optimism over the economy and the markets ticked marginally up in February, dampened only by persistent inflation and uncertainty over upcoming national elections.

Economics 290

Economics Financial Advisor Economy Marketing 290

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. In this environment, inflationary pressures should continue to cool in the months ahead, potentially markedly, but the economy meanwhile continues to head deeper into a likely recession.”

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? The FOMC is expecting growth of just 0.4%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. And they might just go away (no one knows).

Sales 241

Sales Economy Economics Investing 241

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 27, 2024

statnews.com) Economy Where does economic growth come from? conversableeconomist.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (advisorperspectives.com) In many states a rape exception is no help at all. npr.org) How the alcohol lobby has kept higher taxes at bay. awealthofcommonsense.com) R&D spending in the U.S.

Financial Advising 288

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 288

Clever Girl Finance

APRIL 22, 2025

Recession-proof businesses are more than just smart, they’re essential when economic uncertainty hits. But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. Thats where recession-resistant businesses come in.

Economy 71

Economy Food Healthcare Economics 71

The Big Picture

MARCH 14, 2025

This week, I speak with Stephanie Kelton , Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Stony Brook University and Senior Fellow at the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis. Senate Budget Committee, and was senior economic adviser for Bernie Sanders 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns.

Economics 200

Economics Budgeting Economy 200

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. 1) Question #1 for 2022: How much will the economy grow in 2022? "My

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investing 345

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 4, 2023

map.simonsarris.com) Economy The July NFP report showed a 187k jump in jobs and a 3.5% bonddad.blogspot.com) The American economy is normalizing. economy has reached a new, post-pandemic phase. You should never feel beholden to completing them, there are simply too many worthwhile works to read." unemployment rate.

Economics 246

Economics Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 246

Wealth Management

JANUARY 27, 2025

RIAs' belief in the future of the economy grew for the fourth straight month, even as the post-election bump in market sentiment faded slightly.

Economics 257

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 257

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Economy 309

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2025

jeffreyptak.substack.com) Global China is more diverse (economic) than you think. propublica.org) Economy Retail sales are decelerating. calculatedriskblog.com) More signs the economy is weakening. (morningstar.com) People are not dumping target date funds willy-nilly. paulkrugman.substack.com) The U.S.

Media 190

Media Retail Economy Management 190

The Big Picture

MARCH 7, 2025

Prior to this role at BCG, Philipp advised financial institutions and governments at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as well as McKinsey & Company. He is a frequent contributor to Harvard Business Review and World Economic Forum. He was also Chief Economist at Stanford C.

Economics 162

Economics Budgeting Consulting Government 162

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

arstechnica.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks Gen Z with Kyla Scanlon, author of "In This Economy?: podcasts.apple.com) Jim Pethokoukis talks the business of space with Matt Weinzierl, co-author of "Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontier." techcrunch.com) Pocket Casts is making its podcast player free.

Budgeting 144

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 144

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2025

Uncertainty shapes economic cycles fueling booms, triggering busts, and driving debates about what comes next. Uncertainty abounds in the railroad industry too, where evolving demand, market conditions, and economic policies constantly create both challenges and opportunities. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 162

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 28, 2024

BRICS is a coalition of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The collective efforts of BRICS highlight the importance of collaboration among emerging economies. This alliance has the potential to challenge established power structures, particularly in global economic governance.

Economics 111

Economics Economy Government Investing 111

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants observed that the Committee was well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity , the labor market, and inflation, with the vast majority pointing to a still-restrictive policy stance. emphasis added

Economy 147

Economy Economics Numbers Marketing 147

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 21, 2025

One of my favorite ongoing economic stats is the fact that the U.S. economy has been in a recession for just two months out of the past 15-and-a-half years. economy has been remarkably resilient throughout the 2010s and 2020s. Sure, there have been some bumps along the way but the U.S.

Economy 122

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 122

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

They ignored seasonality; they they mixed the match data from completely different series; they cherry, picked starting and stopped dates for their analysis that bore no relationship to the underlying economic trends. Economies are extremely dynamic, ever-changing on a day-to-day basis.

Food 306

Food Math Numbers Economics 306

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 23, 2024

scheplick.com) Business The degenerate economy is booming. msn.com) Heat is going to increasingly play a role in how the economy works. wapo.st) Economy More companies are now touting price cuts. axios.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. disciplinefunds.com) Always check the ticker.

Medicine 307

Medicine Financial Advising Economy Media 307

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Or will the economy lose jobs? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Monday: No major economic releases scheduled. Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?

Economy 147

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Discipline Funds

APRIL 4, 2025

Tariffs are perhaps the most non-partisan issue in economics. In fact, the only reason anyone knows about my work is because half the stuff I read during the GFC years was BS and I made it my mission to debunk a lot of the terrible economic narratives out there. The economic data certainly bears that out. How did this happen?

Economics 131

Economics Economy Healthcare Food 131

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Still, I cannot help but observe that the FOMC response to pandemic-induced inflation is blunt, excessive and unnecessarily painful to the middle and lower economic earners. Liberty Street Economics, August 24, 2022).

Medicine 363

Medicine Medical Economics Economy 363