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Market Concentration

The Big Picture

These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. They are based on historical data that looks at 200 Years of Market Concentration. You might be surprised at the findings. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration.

Marketing 316
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Predicting the Next Recession

Calculated Risk

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 363
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Soft Landing RIP

The Big Picture

How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? But there is a tomorrow and my expectations are that if the Fed overtightens (as they appear on track to do) then the next 12 months will be less economically robust than the prior 12.

Economy 345
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Sunday links: forecasting accuracy

Abnormal Returns

(washingtonpost.com) Measuring economic inequality is harder than it looks. papers.ssrn.com) Economy People have nostalgia for a time that never existed. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. theatlantic.com) Why your search engine results are getting worse. honest-broker.com)

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Friday links: unclear outcomes

Abnormal Returns

sherwood.news) How well do AI search engines cite actual sources? nytimes.com) Economy Regional manufacturing surveys are rolling over. bonddad.blogspot.com) Some unconventional measures of economic weakness. (wsj.com) AI AI models were trained on pirated books. See which ones here.

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Recession Watch

Calculated Risk

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 361
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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People : The highest-earning 10% of Americans have increased their spending far beyond inflation. Previously, she was co-Head of Innovation Economy and Head of Specialized Industries, She has been with JPM Chase for more than 20 years, working with founders, entrepreneurs and startups.

Math 162