Calculated Risk

JULY 28, 2022

percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.

Investing 352

Investing Investments Government Commission 352

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 2, 2025

nytimes.com) DOGE Elon Musk has been plotting the destruction of the federal government for awhile now. propublica.org) DOGE laid off the GSA's 18F team which works to make government systems work better. axios.com) Economy Where manufacturing jobs are increasing. Oz is hopelessly conflicted, from a financial perspective.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Government Media Economy 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 19, 2023

Although other countries have defaulted on their sovereign debt, these defaults occurred in situations where the government could not feasibly continue to service its debt. federal debt ceiling, in contrast, would be a voluntary decision to stop meeting the government’s obligations even though it has no problems doing so.

Government 353

Government Assets Economy Financial Market 353

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 8, 2024

riabiz.com) Policy Government agencies, like the BLS, revise data all the time. nytimes.com) Economy The risks of a recession are rising. econbrowser.com) The Fed is always dealing with economic crosscurrents. tker.co) Why economic data is iffier: lower response rates. bloomberg.com) Bring more smart people to America!

Marketing 278

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economics 278

Abnormal Returns

JULY 14, 2024

wsj.com) Why Medicare Advantage costs the government more the traditional Medicare. nbcnews.com) Economy An economic soft landing is still on track. dallasfed.org) The economic schedule for the coming week. (on.ft.com) How Polymarket became the go-to election prediction market.

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Economics Government Media 262

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 18, 2024

slate.com) Global Japan's government bond yields now exceed China's. politico.com) Economy There's still no sign of a recession in the data. semafor.com) This year's Nobel Prize winners in Economics did not come with universal acclaim. (semafor.com) Automattic Automattic is in turmoil.

Assets 278

Assets Financial Advising Communication Banking 278

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

bloomberg.com) Policy More of government should work like Operation Warp Speed. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturing economy is bumping along. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. npr.org) Human population may soon peak.

Financial Advising 284

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 284

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 14, 2024

(washingtonpost.com) Measuring economic inequality is harder than it looks. vox.com) Threats of violence against elected officials and government officials are on the rise. papers.ssrn.com) Economy People have nostalgia for a time that never existed. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Engineering Food Economics 289

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 22, 2023

om.co) The OpenAI fiasco highlights the importance of corporate governance. economist.com) Economy Still no sign of a pickup in weekly initial unemployment claims. bonddad.blogspot.com) Economic growth is running around 2%. econbrowser.com) Thanks to the Fed the economy is slowing.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Startup Media Economy 264

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 18, 2024

(nytimes.com) Covid demonstrated what the federal government can do to support people. thesling.org) Economy Sam Ro, "In other words, the American consumer isn’t spending as recklessly as they used to. thesling.org) Economy Sam Ro, "In other words, the American consumer isn’t spending as recklessly as they used to.

Financial Advising 277

Financial Advising Taxes Government Media 277

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 1, 2023

morningstar.com) PEPFAR PEPFAR is arguably the most successful government program in history. economist.com) Economy Q3 GDP tracking around 3%. stlouisfed.org) The economic schedule for the coming week. (morningstar.com) Vanguard is set to pass Blackrock ($BLK) in U.S. citywire.com) Bond ETF returns are all in the details.

Financial Advising 299

Financial Advising Taxes Government Media 299

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The state of the economy on Election Day, explained in 6 numbers : Rising prices have weighed heavily on the minds of voters who will soon determine the outcome of elections across the country. ( New York Times ). • Global Biodiversity: A Stable Ecosystem Yields Stable Economics : The U.N. . •

Nonprofit 279

Nonprofit Asset Allocation Economy Economics 279

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2023

percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 , according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy , equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.

Investing 227

Investing Investments Government Commission 227

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

slate.com) Financial conflicts of interest in government are rife. vox.com) Economy Small businesses are finding it easier to hire. wsj.com) The last few years broke a lot of economic indicators. wsj.com) The last few years broke a lot of economic indicators. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the first week of 2023.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Medical Economics Government 278

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 23, 2024

Deloitte has released a promising forecast for India’s economic growth. Dr. Rumki Majumdar sees India’s economy showing strong resilience after the election period. The country maintains its position among the world’s fastest-growing large economies. The report predicts GDP growth between 7 and 7.2

Economy 116

Economy Manufacturing Economics Investments 116

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

The biggest focus of the September meeting should be the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). At their September meeting, Fed officials are likely to make fairly straightforward revisions to their economic projections that reflect these recent developments. Economic projections will be released at this meeting.

Banking 288

Banking Economics Economy Communication 288

The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

Following a negative GDP print in the first quarter, a strong but inflation-racked economy expanded in the second quarter on a nominal basis, but contracted in real inflation-adjusted terms. The smaller decrease in the second quarter primarily reflected an upturn in exports and a smaller decrease in federal government spending.”

Government 300

Government Economy Economics Marketing 300

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 17, 2023

axios.com) Global government bond yields are at 15-year highs. morningstar.com) Economy Any single economic data point is filled with noise. Rates Mortgage rates are at levels not seen since 2001. finance.yahoo.com) Markets Valuations don't matter in the short term. theinformation.com) The city of San Francisco is struggling.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Valuation Manufacturing Government 246

Discipline Funds

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

As an example of this, consider this data point from JP Morgan : “ Exhibit 4 highlights real GDP growth and S&P 500 returns during Republican, Democratic, and divided governments (when one party does not control the White House and both chambers of Congress). And in the post-WW2 era the government has been divided 61% of the time.

Government 58

Government Economy Economics Engineering 58

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 18, 2023

msn.com) Policy Nicholas Bagley, "We need a government that can build, whether it’s wind farms or websites." papers.ssrn.com) Economy The world is the most equal it has been in a century. foreignaffairs.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (bigtechnology.com) The bull case for the Apple ($AAPL) Vision Pro.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Government Media Taxes 246

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Almanac Trader ) • This Time Really Is Different for the Economy. Barron’s ) • What China’s economic problems mean for the world : There is a saying that when the United States sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout.

Economics 245

Economics Banking Accounting Government 245

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2023

Some on the political right are still suspicious that EVs are a government-subsidized scheme to reduce their standard of living, while some on the left worry that EVs will cause exploitation and environmental destruction and suburban sprawl. Call it Schrödinger’s swap. A politics of resentment in America has fed on it, too.

Economy 263

Economy Economics Education Government 263

The Big Picture

MARCH 22, 2023

But the government-orchestrated deal has angered many investors. CIO ) see also Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake : In an uncertain economy, companies post ads for jobs they might not really be trying to fill. But the government-orchestrated deal has angered many investors. A Wealth of Common Sense ) • What is a Bailout?

Risk Management 294

Risk Management Manufacturing Management Government 294

The Big Picture

AUGUST 22, 2022

Liberty Street Economics ) see also Pizza? Geopolitics, the economy and unforeseen events will determine whether the relief will last. ( You Need Banh Mi to Get Employees Back to the Office. Falling Oil Prices Defy Predictions. Falling Oil Prices Defy Predictions. But What About the Next Chapter? New York Times ). Axios ). •

Food 307

Food Manufacturing Government Retirement 307

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

Unusual Economic Indicators : You might have heard about indicators like the Big Mac Index (if you haven’t, you can read our previous article). However, there are many other lesser-known indicators that can actually provide valuable insights and are helpful for the economy. Most Unusual Economic Indicators 1. What is it?

Economy 64

Economy Economics Sales Government 64

The Big Picture

AUGUST 6, 2022

?. This week, we speak with Anat Admati, a professor of finance and economics at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. She specializes in corporate governance and regulations. Professor Admati points out that while banking is intertwined with government via regulations, the Tech sector has been mostly left unregulated.

Banking 212

Banking Government Startup Economics 212

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Methodology Preliminary (not-yet-benchmarked) state employment estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue to be subject to significant revisions around turning points in the economy. Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

Good Riddance, February The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, and large cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. We continue to think the bull market is alive and well and the economy is on solid footing, but that doesnt mean we wont have scary headlines or worries. Heres the thing.

Marketing 73

Marketing Marketing Government Economy 73

The Big Picture

JULY 12, 2023

The fact that weakness in housing was followed by weakness in manufacturing and then a few layoffs in tech doesn’t mean a thing if the overall economy continues booming. And municipalities employ nearly 20 million Americans, compared to the federal government’s roughly 3 million (that’s including the Postal Service), according to BLS data.

Insurance 244

Insurance Distribution Economics Consulting 244

The Big Picture

MAY 25, 2023

Just days or weeks before the government faces a possible funding shortfall, investors are shunning U.S. My morning train WFH reads: • Debt-Ceiling Fight Sends Investors Hunting for New Havens : Traders worried about a potential U.S. default are swapping their go-to safe haven for the bonds of America’s top-rated companies.

Distribution 264

Distribution Government Media Economy 264

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 25, 2022

Nationwide Economics expects consumer inflation to remain highly elevated into 2023 while gradually slowing over the next year. Interest rates are expected to remain higher next year and into 2024 to prevent a renewed surge in prices, even with an economic downturn likely in 2023. How could the midterm elections affect the economy?

Clients 116

Clients Management Government Economy 116

Discipline Funds

OCTOBER 31, 2024

2) Heterodox Economics and Bad Accounting Speaking of bad accounting – there was an interview floating around Twitter with MMT advocate Stephanie Kelton arguing that the national debt isn’t worrisome. But in the aggregate the US economy is not necessarily wealthier at all. As if our government is some sort of Martian entity.

Government 98

Government Accounting Assets Economy 98

Calculated Risk

MAY 20, 2024

Economic Outlook and Housing Price Dynamics. An excerpt on housing: The Housing Market The Fed sets policy to promote its dual-mandate objectives of maximum employment and price stability, and employment and inflation depend on conditions in the entire economy. From Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson: U.S.

Economy 189

Economy Budgeting Economics Government 189

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 12, 2023

thebasispoint.com) Policy The case for a four-day government work week. edworkingpapers.com) The federal government needs to rework its approach to classified documents. politico.com) How discrimination can thrive in a free economy. econofact.org) Economy Warmer weather help explain the big January NFP surprise.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Government Economy Media 130

Discipline Funds

NOVEMBER 20, 2024

I hesitate to criticize Saylor because this bet has worked out brilliantly so far, but that doesn’t change the way economics and finance works. Of course, it’s also true that government spending is often inflationary. We experienced very high inflation during Covid in large part due to government spending.

Insurance 98

Insurance Government Assets Management 98

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 24, 2023

Historical impact of pandemics on the economy Historically, health pandemics have caused significant shocks to the U.S. Flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968 were followed by economic downturns while the 1918 Spanish flu was extremely disruptive to the entire society at the time. economy with effects that could linger for years.

Economy 119

Economy Economics Government Transportation 119

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

But after this this war period, there was inflation stimulated by government spending. In the past, governments have talked about the peace dividend when the Berlin Wall came down as an example, the shift of government spending from the military and the Pentagon to civilian usage. It’s government spending period.

Marketing 317

Marketing Marketing Government Numbers 317