Calculated Risk

JULY 28, 2022

Note: The second graph - residential investment as a percent of GDP - is useful in predicting a Fed induced recession. percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Of course - with the sudden economic stop due to COVID-19 - the usual pattern didn't apply.

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

The transcript from this weeks, MiB: Charley Ellis on Rethinking Investing , is below. Charlie Ellis is just a legend in the world of investing. He was chairman of the Yale’s Endowment Investment Committee and his, not only did he write 21 books, his new book, rethinking Investing, is just a delightful snack.

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Investing Investments Management Engineering 162

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

arstechnica.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks Gen Z with Kyla Scanlon, author of "In This Economy?: podcasts.apple.com) Jim Pethokoukis talks the business of space with Matt Weinzierl, co-author of "Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontier." techcrunch.com) Pocket Casts is making its podcast player free.

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Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 3, 2024

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2024?

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Residential investment has also peaked.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023. million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Along those lines, here are in chronological order, the thinkers who have helped shape how I view the world view, including how I philosophically think about the economy, markets, and investing. 10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy 1. Hence, whatever your views are about the economy, markets, your portfolio, etc.,

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Investing Investments Economy Portfolio 345

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 4, 2023

whitecoatinvestor.com) A Q&A with William Bernstein author of "The Four Pillars of Investing." wsj.com) Don't confuse collectibles with investments. map.simonsarris.com) Economy The July NFP report showed a 187k jump in jobs and a 3.5% bonddad.blogspot.com) The American economy is normalizing. unemployment rate.

Economics 246

Economics Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 246

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 28, 2024

BRICS is a coalition of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Formed in 2009, BRICS aims to enhance cooperation among its members in various sectors, including trade, investment, and development. The collective efforts of BRICS highlight the importance of collaboration among emerging economies.

Economics 111

Economics Economy Government Investments 111

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. 7) Question #7 for 2022: How much will Residential investment change in 2022?

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2023

Note: The first two graphs - Investment Contributions and Residential Investment as a percent of GDP - are useful in predicting Fed induced recessions. percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 , according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Residential investment (RI) decreased at a 26.7%

Investing 227

Investing Investments Government Commission 227

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

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Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 18, 2023

wsj.com) Why Germany's economic growth is slowing, relative to the rest of Europe. financial-planning.com) Economy Forecasters keep boosting 2023 growth estimates. axios.com) How higher interest rates are going to affect the economy. financial-planning.com) Economy Forecasters keep boosting 2023 growth estimates.

Investing 245

Investing Investments Financial Advising Startup 245

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023.

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

The Big Picture

APRIL 5, 2024

He heads Evercore ISI’s economic research team. During his career, Hyman has been ranked as #1 in economics an unprecedented 43 consecutive times by Institutional Investor’s poll of investors. Ed Hyman’s favorite books The post MiB: Ed Hyman on Using Economic Data Opportunistically appeared first on The Big Picture.

Economics 173

Economics Economy Investing Investments 173

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 2, 2025

awealthofcommonsense.com) Nobody ever said investing in the stock market was fun. riabiz.com) Why investors are willing to invest with a hedge fund manager best known for cratering their prior fund. axios.com) Economy Where manufacturing jobs are increasing. agglomerations.substack.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Government Media Economy 162

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Strategy No one is immune from investment FOMO. ft.com) BlackRock ($BLK) reportedly has a deal to buy HPS Investment Partners, a private credit manager. nytimes.com) Economy The Russian Ruble is tumbling in value. sherwood.news) Five economic reasons to be thankful including 'Low unemployment claims.

Media 162

Media Retail Economy Economics 162

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 29, 2024

sherwood.news) Apple Apple ($AAPL) isn't going to invest in OpenAI. crr.bc.edu) Economy The U.S. economy is not too hold or too cold. apolloacademy.com) You have to squint hard to find weakness in the economy. noahpinion.blog) The economic schedule for the coming week. i.e. home equity.

Financial Advising 297

Financial Advising Economy Media Economics 297

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? One of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting uses new home sales (also housing starts and residential investment).

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2025

Echo Beach ) Why Japan Succeeds Despite Stagnation : For more than three decades, Japan has endured near-complete economic stagnation. His reappearance at Monday’s event has sparked a wave of discussion, with experts and analysts wondering what it means for him, China’s tech sector and the economy in general. (

Transportation 162

Transportation Economics Media Investments 162

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 6, 2024

humbledollar.com) Don't make your investing more complicated than it needs to be. flyoverstocks.com) Investing doesn't need to be flashy to succeed. eig.org) Immigration affects the economy in a lot of different ways. thecausalfallacy.com) Economy The labor economy is still on track. economy at present.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Economy Food Insurance 278

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

calculatedrisk.substack.com) Economy What the Sahm Indicator is saying about a recession. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) An economic soft landing is not off the table. (protocol.com) Housing Redfin ($RDFN) is laying off 13% of its workforce and is getting out of the home flipping business.

Investing 246

Investing Investments Financial Advising Advertising 246

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 25, 2024

awealthofcommonsense.com) Just because something is an index fund doesn't mean its a good investment. Vance's hometown of Middletown, OH is experiencing an economic turnaround. papers.ssrn.com) Is economic globalization really going in reverse? danieldrezner.substack.com) Economy Layoffs have not yet picked up.

Financial Advising 277

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 277

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

axios.com) Why Apple ($AAPL) would 'invest' in OpenAI. ft.com) Policy Why housing (policy) matters so much for the economy. wsj.com) Economy Q3 GDP is tracking mid-2% growth. econbrowser.com) The economic data through July were largely positive. apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 294

Financial Advising Valuation Economy Economics 294

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? But there is a tomorrow and my expectations are that if the Fed overtightens (as they appear on track to do) then the next 12 months will be less economically robust than the prior 12.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 14, 2024

mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Strategy Five lessons from five great investing books. dariusforoux.com) Lessons learned from 20 years of investing including 'Insurance Is expensive for a reason.' etf.com) Economy Six things Presidential candidates want you to believe about the economy including 'The President controls gas prices.'

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Economy Assets Insurance 278

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

variety.com) Economy Inflation has stopped going down. abnormalreturns.com) There is no holy grail in investing. (sixcolors.com) Streaming There are still a lot of questions to answer about the new sports streaming service. theverge.com) Streaming has not killed off movie piracy. variety.com) We really did hit Peak TV.

Economics 202

Economics Financial Advising Insurance Media 202

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

(sherwood.news) China's stock market is on board with economic stimulus. apolloacademy.com) OpenAI SoftBank is planning to invest $500 million in OpenAI. awfulannouncing.com) Economy Is election uncertainty holding back the economy? ft.com) Immigration is making it harder to gauge the labor economy.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Financial Advice Economy Media 264

Abnormal Returns

JULY 7, 2024

Markets How the rise of automated investing has changed the stock market. awealthofcommonsense.com) When did the 'degenerate economy' really take hold? politico.com) Economy The unemployment rates is low but headed higher. disciplinefunds.com) The labor economy is slowing. The Fed should feel comfortable cutting rates.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Economy Media Economics 264

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 24, 2025

downtownjoshbrown.com) How to find, and invest in, meme-worthy stocks. bigtechnology.com) Economy Sales of existing homes in the US hit their lowest level since 1995. calculatedriskblog.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: basic economics. Strategy Market consensus is max bullish.

Food 147

Food Taxes Media Economy 147

Abnormal Returns

MAY 26, 2024

downtownjoshbrown.com) Strategy The economy is not the stock market, and vice versa. awealthofcommonsense.com) Why you should pay attention to your emotions when investing. slowboring.com) Economy Air travel is now well above pre-pandemic levels. calculatedriskblog.com) The economy isn't in recession, but it isn't perfect.

Financial Advising 267

Financial Advising Economy Education Media 267

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 9, 2024

wsj.com) Investing in ports has positive spillover economic effects. wsj.com) A plan to invest and accelerate agricultural productivity. papers.ssrn.com) Economy Signs that the bottom 50% of the income spectrum have done well post-pandemic. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Budgeting Economics Media 278

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. 8) Question #8 for 2023: How much will Residential investment change in 2023? range in 2023.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 7, 2024

theverge.com) Economy Ezra Klein talks with Annie Lowery about the growing economic disconnect. theatlantic.com) Michael Klein talks with David Rapson about the economics of EV adoption. compounderspod.substack.com) Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau talks investing in India with Anupam Ghose, co-founder of System2 Advisors.

Economy 264

Economy Economics Investing Investments 264