Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.1% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.1% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The April Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.1 The PMI® was at 47.1% in March, up from 46.3%

Manufacturing 251

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 251

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 3, 2024

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative. GDP) continues to expand.

Economics 244

Economics Marketing Marketing Valuation 244

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2022

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 52.8% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 52.8% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The August Manufacturing PMI® registered 52.8 (Posted with permission). The PMI® was at 52.8%

Manufacturing 188

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 188

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2024

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.8% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.8% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.8 A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, 1.9

Manufacturing 157

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 157

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 2, 2025

owns RV manufacturer Forest River? axios.com) Economy Where manufacturing jobs are increasing. agglomerations.substack.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (humbledollar.com) Finance The structured finance industry is back, and is set to be bigger than ever.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Government Media Economy 162

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 8, 2024

(finance.yahoo.com) Global With a rate hike in the books, is Japan's economy finally normalizing? marketwatch.com) How India could help drive global economic growth. bloomberg.com) Economy The employment economy is humming along. bonddad.blogspot.com) Where the manufacturing economy stands.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Economy Manufacturing Media 278

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Please consider the November 2022 Manufacturing ISM ® Report On Business ® “Manufacturing contracted in November after expanding for 29 straight months. Key Details “The November Manufacturing PMI ® registered 49 percent, 1.2 The Manufacturing PMI ® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent, 4.2

Manufacturing 222

Manufacturing Business Planning Management Economy 222

Calculated Risk

JULY 3, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The June Manufacturing PMI® registered 46 percent , 0.9 Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a seventh month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion.

Manufacturing 173

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 173

Calculated Risk

JUNE 3, 2024

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7 Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7

Manufacturing 150

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 150

Calculated Risk

JUNE 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.1% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.1% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The May Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.9 The PMI® was at 46.9% in May, down from 47.1%

Manufacturing 167

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 167

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 5, 2024

bloomberg.com) Business John Kay, "Apple is the epitome of the “hollow corporation”; it is less a manufacturer than a coordinator of activities mostly undertaken by others." noemamag.com) Society NAFTA was a hinge on which the American economy pivoted. nytimes.com) Native Hawaiians are moving to the mainland to get ahead economically.

Startup 277

Startup Manufacturing Economy Economics 277

Calculated Risk

APRIL 1, 2024

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.3% March 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March after contracting for 16 consecutive months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

Manufacturing 154

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 154

Calculated Risk

JULY 1, 2024

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.5% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.5% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.5 A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent , 3.9

Manufacturing 140

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 140

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2024

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. April 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April after one month of expansion following 16 consecutive months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

Manufacturing 140

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 140

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2024

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.8% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.8% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.8 A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 in January.

Manufacturing 150

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 150

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.3% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.3% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The March Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.3 (Posted with permission). The PMI® was at 46.3%

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 162

Abnormal Returns

JULY 19, 2024

(wsj.com) Economics Q2 GDP is tracking around 2%. manufacturing economy that are booming. carsongroup.com) Political partisanship is working its way into real economic data. ft.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: harsh economic truths. calculatedriskblog.com) Is it even possible to weaken the U.S.

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Media Economics Manufacturing 263

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 9, 2024

(cnbc.com) Global Japan is trying to rebuild its chip manufacturing sector. wsj.com) Economy State coincident indicators show continued economic strength. ritholtz.com) The links between the stock market and economy are tenuous. nytimes.com) Russia is illegally holding Ukrainians in Crimea.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Manufacturing Economy Media 264

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 12, 2023

ft.com) Economy Q4 GDP is tracking at 2%. econbrowser.com) Any economic slowdown is coming with consumers in pretty good shape. tker.co) On the divergence between consumer sentiment and the economy. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Economic activity continues to shift toward these four Sunbelt cities. npr.org)

Financial Advising 284

Financial Advising Economics Economy Manufacturing 284

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.6% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.6% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The August Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.6 (Posted with permission). Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M.,

Manufacturing 150

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 150

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.7 A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 in September.

Manufacturing 145

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 145

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.9% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.9% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The September Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.9 (Posted with permission). Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M.,

Manufacturing 150

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 150

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.7% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.7% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The February Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.7 (Posted with permission). in January.

Manufacturing 154

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 154

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.7 A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 in October.

Manufacturing 140

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 140

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. Taking rates to the 1.50%-1.75% range had some bite, and we see the impact of this higher cost of credit combined with inflation impacting the economy. The diffusion index = 100. increase in 1Q.

Economics 321

Economics Banking Retail Economy 321

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2023

Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Manufacturing activity was mixed, although contacts across multiple Districts noted an improving outlook for the sector. The near-term outlook for the economy was generally described as stable or having slightly weaker growth.

Economics 162

Economics Retail Banking Manufacturing 162

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

You can see why the NBER does not rely on GDP (pink line) alone; GDP was slightly negative, while Manufacturing and Trade Sales were more negative. It is difficult to look at these 6 (or 7) data points honestly and draw the conclusion that the nation’s economic activity in the first half shrunk.

Manufacturing 324

Manufacturing Economy Economics Sales 324

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturing economy is bumping along. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (bbc.com) Belarus is complicit in the abduction of Ukrainian children. npr.org) Human population may soon peak.

Financial Advising 284

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 284

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 1, 2024

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 in December.

Manufacturing 133

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 133

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.2% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.2% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The October Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.2 (Posted with permission). The PMI® was at 50.2%

Manufacturing 133

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 133

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 3, 2025

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI at 49.3% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI at 49.3% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: The Manufacturing PMI registered 49.3 A Manufacturing PMI above 42.5 The PMI was at 49.3%

Manufacturing 113

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 113

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2024

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.4% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.4% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.4 A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 in October.

Manufacturing 113

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 113

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 1, 2024

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.2% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.2% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.2 A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent , 1.5

Manufacturing 113

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 113

The Big Picture

APRIL 21, 2023

Manufacturing firms? This is not the same economy as the pre-Covid era. This is the economy of “pushing price” and finding that marginal dollar. That was supposed to be a headwind to the US economy and inflationary pressures. And P&G does not appear to have found it yet. Pushing price. Services firms? Pushing price.

Economy 328

Economy Banking Manufacturing Management 328

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 23, 2024

Deloitte has released a promising forecast for India’s economic growth. Dr. Rumki Majumdar sees India’s economy showing strong resilience after the election period. The country maintains its position among the world’s fastest-growing large economies. First, the manufacturing sector shows remarkable expansion.

Economy 116

Economy Manufacturing Economics Investments 116