Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. The pace of decline in new export orders also gathered momentum, with manufacturing weakness being met by a dwindling service sector performance in external markets. Thanks for Tuning In!

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 28, 2024

humbledollar.com) What happens when you stop focusing on the stock market. fasterplease.substack.com) Economy The U.S. economy is in its best shape since the 1990s. economy is the envy of the rest of the developed world. wapo.st) The economic schedule for the coming week. disciplinefunds.com) The U.S.

Marketing 278

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 278

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

The chart shows the peak-to-trough declines of all the bear markets with the popular definition of a 20% decline, measured up until the start of the first 20% rally. As Batnick points out, all of these horrendous periods of market pain are already factored into long-term returns of equities. Have a look at the BAML chart above.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

Markets Nick Maggiulli, "What will cause the next market decline? ofdollarsanddata.com) It's not news that the stock market goes up most years. news.crunchbase.com) Global Is China's stock market finally cheap enough for another look? nytimes.com) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 4.8% I have no clue."

Marketing 265

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 265

Abnormal Returns

JULY 6, 2023

(awealthofcommonsense.com) The housing market is in a very real way locked up. theconversation.com) Economy The quit rate continues to slow. calculatedriskblog.com) The labor market is threading the needle. nytimes.com) The war has taken a toll on Ukraine's scientists. bonddad.blogspot.com) Job openings are down year-over-year.

Economics 239

Economics Startup Financial Advising Media 239

The Big Picture

AUGUST 19, 2022

The link was to James Mackintosh’s column “ Five Not-Quite-Impossible Things the Market Believes.” But rational people can reasonably disagree on anything market-related — after all, someone has to be on the other side of your trade. As to what the market “knows:” Stop Anthropomorphizing Mr. Market.

Marketing 321

Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Economy 321

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 4, 2023

map.simonsarris.com) Economy The July NFP report showed a 187k jump in jobs and a 3.5% calculatedriskblog.com) There is continued deceleration in the jobs market. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American economy is normalizing. economy has reached a new, post-pandemic phase. unemployment rate. carsongroup.com) The U.S.

Economics 246

Economics Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 246

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 24, 2022

medium.com) Big tech companies are sitting on their own bond market losses. wsj.com) China is dramatically reducing the amount of economic statistics it publishes. economist.com) Economy This high yield bond indicator is signalling economic trouble ahead. thediff.co) Global How the U.S.

Marketing 246

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Valuation 246

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 23, 2024

Strategy Mean reversion happens in the stock market. scheplick.com) Business The degenerate economy is booming. msn.com) Heat is going to increasingly play a role in how the economy works. wapo.st) Economy More companies are now touting price cuts. axios.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Medicine 312

Medicine Financial Advising Economy Media 312

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

variety.com) Economy Inflation has stopped going down. abnormalreturns.com) It may take some time, but markets eventually work. (sixcolors.com) Streaming There are still a lot of questions to answer about the new sports streaming service. theverge.com) Streaming has not killed off movie piracy. variety.com) We really did hit Peak TV.

Economics 203

Economics Financial Advising Insurance Media 203

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

Markets The S&P 500 returned 2.43% in August 2023. on.spdji.com) There are too many markets at all-time highs to count. wsj.com) Good luck trying to time the stock market using valuation metrics. awealthofcommonsense.com) Market statistics can gloss over the big picture. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Financial Advising 295

Financial Advising Valuation Economy Economics 295

Abnormal Returns

MAY 12, 2024

Markets No news is good news for the stock market. tker.co) The stock market has gone nowhere the past 10 weeks. vox.com) Economy Some signs of economic caution. klementoninvesting.substack.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. allstarcharts.com) What Wall Street jargon really means.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Economy Economics Media 279

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

Will second-quarter earnings (released this month) disappoint or has the market already moderated expectations? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much of this is priced into the stock market already? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4?

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 20, 2023

With a clean and simple interface, it puts all of the key economic indicators the FOMC tracks — Real GDP Growth, Unemployment Rate, PCE Inflation, Core PCE Inflation, and the Federal Funds Rate — in one convenient location. The Macro Snapshot also dives deeper into three core aspects of the economy: 1.

Economics 306

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 306

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

Markets A lot of stock market indices are sitting at all-time highs. vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. ft.com) Economy The case for the Fed to cut rates. wsj.com) How the post-pandemic economy is messing with the Sahm Rule.

License 290

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 290

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

 At the Money: Is War Good for Markets? February 14, 2024) What does history tell us about how war impacts the stock market? Can these patterns inform us of future bull market behavior? A 500% move in the stock market. Explain your dad’s thinking about how war plus inflation equals a stock bull market.

Marketing 317

Marketing Marketing Government Numbers 317

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

Markets The China stock market rally is very broad. sherwood.news) China's stock market is on board with economic stimulus. axios.com) The China stock market rally has gotten U.S. sherwood.news) Strategy The time to prepare for a bear market is before it is on the horizon. ETF investor attention.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Financial Advice Economy Media 265

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 13, 2024

Markets Stock market returns are rarely average. tker.co) Why you can't extrapolate market returns. awealthofcommonsense.com) Markets aren't perfectly efficient, but that doesn't mean you can effectively take advantage. rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Cities Detroit is experiencing an economic rebound.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Government Economics Media 279

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 29, 2024

Markets The U.S. is in the midst of an 'epic bull market.' crr.bc.edu) Economy The U.S. economy is not too hold or too cold. apolloacademy.com) You have to squint hard to find weakness in the economy. noahpinion.blog) The economic schedule for the coming week. i.e. home equity.

Financial Advising 298

Financial Advising Economy Media Economics 298

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 12, 2023

Markets U.S. allstarcharts.com) Strategy What it going to happen to all those assets in money market fund when yields eventually fall? fortunesandfrictions.com) ETFs Why it isn't surprising that ETFs are gaining market share. doesn't have legalized prediction markets. ft.com) Economy Q4 GDP is tracking at 2%.

Financial Advising 285

Financial Advising Economics Economy Manufacturing 285

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

At least if you do forecasts for market returns over the next decade (lol), you may see incredible similarities. In other words, if you were forecasting 10-year returns of 3% annually, you are also forecasting an economic shitstorm of rare and historic proportions. If you are a strategist at Goldman Sachs , then a lot.

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Economy 326

Abnormal Returns

MAY 26, 2024

Markets Consumer discretionary stocks have been underperforming for awhile now. allstarcharts.com) Every big market trend eventually hits an 'air pocket.' downtownjoshbrown.com) Strategy The economy is not the stock market, and vice versa. slowboring.com) Economy Air travel is now well above pre-pandemic levels.

Financial Advising 268

Financial Advising Economy Education Media 268

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

We talked about how you should think about Wall Street forecasts about the economy. The TL:dr is the short term is too random, and so only serves as marketing for institutional trading firms. The entire discussion is worth watching, but the video below is teed up for the economic forecasting discussion. Previously : Slowing U.S.

Economy 288

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 288

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 25, 2024

wsj.com) Most market arguments are because of differing time frames. Vance's hometown of Middletown, OH is experiencing an economic turnaround. papers.ssrn.com) Is economic globalization really going in reverse? danieldrezner.substack.com) Economy Layoffs have not yet picked up. politico.com) The U.S.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 278

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

Markets Asset class returns were pretty green in 2023 except for commodities. theatlantic.com) The DOE has successfully timed the oil market. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturing economy is bumping along. on.spdji.com) Some of the best charts of 2023.

Financial Advising 285

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 285

Abnormal Returns

JULY 7, 2024

Markets How the rise of automated investing has changed the stock market. awealthofcommonsense.com) When did the 'degenerate economy' really take hold? politico.com) Economy The unemployment rates is low but headed higher. disciplinefunds.com) The labor economy is slowing.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Economy Media Economics 265

The Big Picture

JANUARY 12, 2023

If that sounds somewhat counterintuitive, allow me to explain my thought process by looking at five major economic sectors: 1. The biggest issue in the Labor market is an insufficent supply. The Fed simply lacks the tools for dealing with the sorts of inflation confronting the economy today. Semiconductors. But at What Cost? (

Economy 299

Economy Economics Media Retirement 299

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 14, 2024

Markets Checking in on the bull market, two years in. etf.com) Economy Six things Presidential candidates want you to believe about the economy including 'The President controls gas prices.' mrmoneymustache.com) The 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics goes to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Economy Assets Insurance 279

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 6, 2024

eig.org) Immigration affects the economy in a lot of different ways. econofact.org) The home insurance market, post Helene, is likely to get more dysfunctional. thecausalfallacy.com) Economy The labor economy is still on track. economy at present. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Economy Food Insurance 279

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

As we have been discussing since May of this year, there are increasing signs we have been groping for a bottom in the equity markets. Some are known and already priced in, more are ambiguous, not fully reflected in market prices, and some are random surprises that by definition markets have not accounted for. to closer to 5%.

Economy 295

Economy Economics Valuation Marketing 295

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 3, 2024

Markets These five groups are leading the market higher. stock market has outperformed developed and emerging markets over the past 16 years. economy is filled with technical debt. goodgoodgood.co) Economy Freight volume is slowing. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) The case that the economy is doing just fine.

Financial Advising 255

Financial Advising Economy Media Banking 255

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 9, 2024

Markets Investors are coming to terms with higher short-term interest rates. nytimes.com) All the narrative rolling around the markets including 'Sticky inflation.' wsj.com) Economy State coincident indicators show continued economic strength. ritholtz.com) The links between the stock market and economy are tenuous.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Manufacturing Economy Media 265

Abnormal Returns

JULY 14, 2024

Strategy The stock market has changed so much over the past 50 years. awealthofcommonsense.com) Seven reasons you may want to venture away from the market portfolio. investmentecosystem.com) Finance Bank OZK ($OZK) is uniquely exposed to the South Florida real estate market. Human behavior hasn't.

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Economics Media Government 262

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 15, 2023

Markets We are living through the worst bond bear market in history. cnbc.com) Why the stock market can rise in the face of war. nber.org) Economy Economists did not foresee the strong labor market. thenation.com) Ozempic isn't going to ruin the economy. wsj.com) How to think about core bond funds.

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Media Retail Economy 289

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

politico.com) Why market economics doesn't necessarily work in health care. longreads.com) Populism is bad for a country's economy. marginalrevolution.com) Economy Shouldn't there be more layoffs by now? econofact.org) The economic schedule for the coming week. Wade has affected women's feelings toward pregnancy.

Financial Advising 290

Financial Advising Valuation Economy Economics 290

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 9, 2024

theirrelevantinvestor.com) Markets Can we finally move past the Gamestock ($GME) era of markets? herbgreenberg.substack.com) Does anything matter any more in markets? wsj.com) Investing in ports has positive spillover economic effects. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Budgeting Economics Media 279

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 7, 2024

theverge.com) Economy Ezra Klein talks with Annie Lowery about the growing economic disconnect. theatlantic.com) Michael Klein talks with David Rapson about the economics of EV adoption. (time.com) Reese’s Book Club has an audio home on Apple Books.

Economy 265

Economy Economics Investing Investments 265