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They ignored seasonality; they they mixed the match data from completely different series; they cherry, picked starting and stopped dates for their analysis that bore no relationship to the underlying economic trends. ” A bit of quick math: 726,600/0.987 = 736,170 (starting point). 726,600 – 736,170 = -9,570.
As Paul Krugman recently wrote on his excellent Substack , using a chart identical to the one immediately above (Paul used FRED ): “People may imagine that government is a bigger part of the economy than it is because of all the money we spend supporting retired Americans, covering their health bills, and so on [Chart 1].
on.spdji.com) It's hard to make the math on hedge funds add up. nytimes.com) Budgeting When you do the math, it's hard to find trillions to save in the federal budget. prospect.org) The math on mass deportation doesn't add up. sherwood.news) Economy Real wages are still rising. Just ask Norway.
gardenandgun.com) Economy The hurricanes are going to mess with economic data for awhile. bloomberg.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: hedge fund math. (frontofficesports.com) Inside the professional mini-golf tour. axios.com) Not a lot to see in the September PPI report.
thebookseller.com) Can AI chatbots do math? sherwood.news) Economy Why the Fed should cut rates now, not September. sherwood.news) Relying on any single economic indicator is a mistake. (theatlantic.com) Meta ($META) is going full-speed on AI. wsj.com) Google ($GOOGL) is backtracking on eliminating cookies in Chrome.
Strategy The math on the 60/40 portfolio looks a lot different than it did a year ago. washingtonpost.com) Economy The U.S. theweek.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. awealthofcommonsense.com) There is a difference between picking and choosing. drorpoleg.com) How Amazon's ($AMZN) advertising business got so big.
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The sneaky economics of Ticketmaster : Ticketmaster’s maligned fees and customer service issues are again under the microscope. The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? Yet the fundamental math of bond returns bodes well for 2023, our columnist says. (
The Federal Reserve is struggling to cool inflation further without damaging the economy. But most of all, it was just simple maths according to Druck. My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The Fed Has No Good Options. The Risk of a Misstep Is Growing. The easy part is over. The easy part is over. The first was don’t lose money.
Morgan Housel Finance types tend to focus on attributes like intelligence, math skills and computer programming. You can know everything about math and data and markets, but if you don’t control your sense of greed and fear and you’re managing uncertainty in your behavior, none of it matters. None of it matters.
noahpinion.substack.com) Some math behind putting Social Security back on solid footing. armoxon.substack.com) Economy Given everything, why aren't home prices lower? axios.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (investmentnews.com) Vanguard on the growing popularity of the ETF.
My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. economy is doing well, why do so many Americans say it’s terrible? Sapient Capital ) • If the U.S.
Recession-proof businesses can thrive despite an economic downturn. This is because consumers become concerned about the economy or have lost their jobs and means of income. GDP is how overall economic activity is measured for a country. Here are 14 good businesses to start in a bad economy: 1. Baby products.
Its just basic math. Does it mean our entire economy is expected to grow much more quickly? What this tells us is that while investors expect the overall US economy to be fairly healthy in the coming years, they expect the biggest tech companies to continue to enjoy much faster growth. What if the Earnings are Rising?
By Nick Maggiulli The fact that high beta firms tend to have lower quality and higher financial leverage is perhaps one good reason why the outperformance in bull markets is more than erased during bear markets By David Varadi Real math is painfully precise. Investment finance math is sales math.
Jobs and services sector news painted a better picture of the economy on Thursday, but as the 10-year Treasury hit 4%, stock prices responded negatively. 3,4 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: International Trade in Goods. Math errors: Simple addition and subtraction mistakes can delay your return. also helped sentiment.
All companies face the challenges of a slowing economy, rising inflation and a born-again Fed that is determined to bring inflation under control even if it means pushing the economy over the edge. This blocks any attempt to challenge their leadership regardless of their economic interest in the company. Do the Math!
And he’s really moving the needle in terms of having people take control of their own financial life in a way that benefits not just them but the entire economy and all of society. I had an economics lesson, I had a life lesson, I had an epiphany, I had a race relations lesson, I had a self-esteem and confidence lesson.
ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing.
And so, coming out of school, I studied Economics and Spanish Literature, and I applied to a — a program that actually targeted Liberal Arts majors. I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. It was at Bank One, at the time.
Most economic research recommends a safe withdrawal rate to be no more than 2% to 4% — which could be less than you are imagining. After you’ve done this math, you might be wondering if you have “enough,” and certainly that’s hard to assess when there are so many unknowns. You might set a new record for longevity.
And this concern was confirmed on Thursday evening when Lululemon warned that economic uncertainty was leading to softer than expected consumer spending. Of all the silly discussions that I’ve had over the years regarding economics I have to say that the tariff discussion is among the very silliest. 2) Tariffs 101.
You graduate Harvard in 1990, with an Economics and Computer Science degree, perfect for the explosion of the Internet; a PhD from MIT and Information Technology in ‘96. And you know, the only thing math works on recognition by peers, and there’s some prizes. So it’s been a central to what I do and who I am.
In doing so, I thought this conversation was really quite fascinating, and I think you will also, especially if you’re not only interested in equity, but curious as to how to combine various aspects of market functions, valuation, economic cycle, fed actions into one coherent strategy. But generally starts with the economic cycle.
However, the fact remains the economy remains strong, corporate profits are at record levels, unemployment is low, and interest rates remain at attractive levels despite nagging inflation ( see chart below ) and the removal of accommodative monetary policies by the Federal Reserve. Math Matters. Source: Calafia Beach Pundit.
With the growing complexity of financial products, digital transactions, credit systems, and global economies, todays young adults encounter challenges that previous generations faced much later in life. The Significance of Early Financial Education Financial education has transformed from being a luxury to a necessity.
With the growing complexity of financial products, digital transactions, credit systems, and global economies, today’s young adults encounter challenges that previous generations faced much later in life. The Significance of Early Financial Education Financial education has transformed from being a luxury to a necessity.
I try to analyze the economy from the top. And to this day, we know when I have a view on the economy, or usually have a view on the economy or inflation, it’s usually driven because I read so many corporate earnings reports and trying to understand why they’re cutting inventory, why are they laying off people.
The curve, however, continues to project cuts to the rate beginning next May, which seems optimistic given the tone of Fed officials and the math around getting inflation back close to their 2% target. The Fed Futures curve embeds an 88% chance of a 0.75% hike later this month, with a peak in the Fed Funds rate at roughly 4% (currently 2.5%).
Big Tech’s Market Influence Walmart’s Earnings Report as an economic indicator Small Cap Stocks – Is this the beginning of a sustained rally? God forbid the economy, or the consumer were strong. Outside of energy that mindset rained on just about every sector of the economy last year. Do the math.
I was always good at math, but I really, I just didn’t relate to things that were more esoteric bonds options. When I look at Europe, I see a, not only a very mature area, but I also see an economy that hasn’t really recovered fully from the pandemic or arguably from the great financial crisis. I have no family history.
A degree in mathematics from Oxford, a doctorate in mathematical epidemiology and economics from Cambridge. So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. What is that? The second is excess returns.
One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics. So people really ask you, you take French and can you do math. Two reasons. What, why do we think that is?
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. There’s a continual, the economy continues to grow. It goes so far. Did you give me cash?
And just to amplify everything even further, China has launched a batshit crazy (and medically impossible) “zero covid” policy, locking down hundreds of millions of its own people who can no longer produce or export the things that the rest of the world’s economy had grown to rely upon. So if you’re under 40, some of this may feel unfamiliar.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. So I get the sense you guys don’t pay a whole lot of attention to the macro economy or geopolitics or what the fed’s doing. Learn math, learn history.
The Company Lab was the entrepreneurship and economic development center for Chattanooga and the surrounding areas, which include North Georgia, North Alabama, and Southeast Tennessee. RITHOLTZ: What’s some of the economic sectors within that area? RITHOLTZ: Why is it not surprising that a math nerd is also a placekicker?
So a variety of risk meetings, a variety of economic meetings. Yes, the economy can clearly keep roaring along, which we’ve seen. So investors and savers are definitely eating into that safety net, which over time as that continues to decline should slow the economy down to some degree. One, it becomes a factor.
The great freeze on free money has arrived with a jolt as inflation cleaves through the global economy. We discount each year at our 10% minimum weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and some infinite series maths gives us the basis for some rough approximations 2. Specifically, economics has a half-life of 9.4 GAAP in 2002 7.
Benefits of work from home jobs The gig economy is booming. In fact, more than one-third of the US workforce participates in the gig economy (that is 36% to be precise). Shared economies such as Uber and Etsy are dominating their markets presenting more and more opportunities for everyone to get a share.
on.ft.com) What it took to rebuild Notre Dame (nytimes.com) Budgeting The math on any additional tax cuts is tough. donmoynihan.substack.com) Climate policy IS economic policy. noahpinion.blog) Economy How CPI works. nytimes.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (press.airstreet.com) Will AI eat the browser?
In fact, because QE reduces interest income it might have a marginally deflationary impact on the economy, all else equal. Interest rates are different and have a much more meaningful impact on the economy by damaging banks and credit markets. Not nothing, but certainly not enough to move the needle of a $30T economy.
Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People : The highest-earning 10% of Americans have increased their spending far beyond inflation. Or why we need less math in music theory. ( Tablet ) see also Welcome to the New Military-Industrial Complex. But there was one font I didnt even notice, even though it was everywhere around me.
STEVEN KLINSKY, FOUNDER, CEO AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, NEW MOUNTAIN CAPITAL: I come from the Detroit area of Michigan as a public school kid, went to University of Michigan and studied both economics and philosophy. So I mean, in ’07 and ’08, you know, what killed the economy in ’07 and ‘08 were mortgages going down. KLINSKY: Yeah.
Or perhaps it simply doesn’t fit with our view of the world (or the economic cycle, or the markets, or politics, or, or, or). Moreover, “proof” in science in inductive and doesn’t have the deductive certainty that it can in math. Humans have extended lifespans and expanded economies.
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