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Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Contacts in most Districts reported modest increases in selling prices, though there were instances of flat or decreasing prices as well, particularly in the retail and manufacturing sectors.
jeffreyptak.substack.com) Global China is more diverse (economic) than you think. propublica.org) EconomyRetail sales are decelerating. calculatedriskblog.com) More signs the economy is weakening. (morningstar.com) People are not dumping target date funds willy-nilly. paulkrugman.substack.com) The U.S.
The resulting impact on CRE land and liabilities is a risk factor for the banking sector, and potentially a threat to the broader economic system. I want to float a new concept to CRE owners: Retail as a Service (RaaS). Not just the upper floors that tenants rented, but the ground floor retail as well.2
ft.com) Retail How Target ($TGT) lost its shine. nytimes.com) Economy The Russian Ruble is tumbling in value. sherwood.news) Five economic reasons to be thankful including 'Low unemployment claims. (newsletter.rationalwalk.com) What happens to Microstrategy ($MSTR) if Bitcoin were classified as a security?
The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. Taking rates to the 1.50%-1.75% range had some bite, and we see the impact of this higher cost of credit combined with inflation impacting the economy. Real wholesale + retail sales.
The least contentious of which is that modest increases in minimum wages increase economic activity and create jobs. Perhaps even more surprising has been the wholesale abandonment of specific industries: Food service, retail, etc., It stays local and is likely to benefit the regional economy.
priceactionlab.com) Retail traders are taking a break from trading. nber.org) Economy Economists did not foresee the strong labor market. thenation.com) Ozempic isn't going to ruin the economy. economicforces.xyz) The economic schedule for the coming week. cnbc.com) Why the stock market can rise in the face of war.
thereformedbroker.com) The S&P 500 is not the economy. championbets.com.au) Economy What odds do term spread models put on a recession? economist.com) Five economic reasons to be thankful, including low unemployment claims. calculatedriskblog.com) Why you can safely ignore holiday retail spending forecasts.
Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Consumer spending was mixed, especially among general retailers and auto dealers, due to differences in prices and product offerings. The near-term outlook for the economy was generally described as stable or having slightly weaker growth.
markets.businessinsider.com) Companies How retailers have responded to the post-pandemic era. morningstar.com) Economy The August NFP showed continued growth and a 3.8% ritholtz.com) Seven economic myths including that the consumer is 'tapped out.' awealthofcommonsense.com) U.S unemployment rate. wsj.com) The U.S.
When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating.
They also wrote the 2011 bestseller “ Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon ,” about the mortgage crisis. economy, but American society as a whole. KKR) — have grown to have an outsized impact on not just the U.S. taxpayers 180 billion dollars per decade.
Billions of Dollars at Stake in a Puzzling Holiday Shopping Season : It promises to be unpredictable, with retailers and consumers still figuring out how much will be spent and on what kinds of goods. ( Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research ). • The Political Economy Blog ). Businessweek ). New York Times ). •
ft.com) How Schwab ($SCHW) plans to profit from integrating TD Ameritrade retail customers. anneapplebaum.com) Economy Why haven't higher interest rates wrecked the economy already? awealthofcommonsense.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. wired.com) Why Egyptian men are fleeing to Europe.
Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model.
wsj.com) Retail Dollar stores are attracting a more upscale crowd these days. axios.com) Economy Where various recession probability models stand. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (axios.com) Why everybody and their brother submitted a spot Bitcoin ETF application this week. to charity.
Early Benchmark Methodology Preliminary (not-yet-benchmarked) state employment estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue to be subject to significant revisions around turning points in the economy. Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies.
How people behave around financial decisions is important; what cognitive issues affect their thought process helps me give better advise to clients; last, how economic behavior impacts the markets and the economy affects us all. FOMO & TINA are really just “Fear & Greed” in another guise.
stock indexes opened lower on Wednesday after January retail sales number came in higher than expected, a sign that the U.S. economic growth picked up at the start of the year despite increased rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to tame inflation. retailers jumped 3% in January, topping the 1.9% The S&P 500 was off 0.6%
rationalwalk.com) How Covid changed retail (and restaurants). wsj.com) Economy Are bank failures actually helping the Fed crush inflation? tker.co) The economic schedule for the coming week. (allstarcharts.com) Companies Growth in spending on SaaS services is slowing. tomtunguz.com) Why Berkshire Hathaway's ($BRK.A)
Wired ) • If you want to know where the world economy is headed, look at the bottom of this toy car : We have a small collection of these cars, and occasionally I use them as a teaching tool. He oversees an exchange-traded fund US Quality Equity ETF ( QLTY ) — the first retail product from GMO since its launch in 1977.
March’s cooler CPI data provided further evidence that price pressures are fading in many pockets of the economy. Retail sales dropped in March for the fourth time in the past five months. Analysis: Poor spending to round out the first quarter Retail sales contracted by 1.0 Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg.
The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Retail and food service sales have increased at an 8.6% Economic indicators across consumption, income, industry and the labor market don’t point to a recession. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4% in the third quarter.
Unusual Economic Indicators : You might have heard about indicators like the Big Mac Index (if you haven’t, you can read our previous article). However, there are many other lesser-known indicators that can actually provide valuable insights and are helpful for the economy. Most Unusual Economic Indicators 1. What is it?
Whether the Fed raises rate or holds steady on Wednesday, we see the unfortunate banking developments and ensuing tightening of lending standards as reinforcing our view that the economy is headed for a moderate recession in the second half of the 2023. Retail sales declined 0.4 Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg.
etf.com) Companies Retailers are blaming organized theft as an excuse to close stores. finance.yahoo.com) Economy The ISM Manufacturing index fell for the 12th straight month. advisorperspectives.com) Americans aren't used to economic volatility. (on.spdji.com) Rates The Treasury market has become the hot new market.
Wholesale inventories are surging as retail inventories flatten. Also note that the US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession Add a huge inventory problem to this toxic mix. In the other two, inventories peaked just prior to or at the start of recession. Biggest Ramp in Wholesale Inventory History.
B) Retail investors hold a miniscule amount of long-term bonds. According to the Fed retail investors hold just 9% of outstanding bonds. That would mean that long-term Treasury Bonds are less than 1% of the average retail investor’s assets. 3) The “This is Fine” Economy.
tker.co) Reg D offerings for retail investors are often illiquid, low information and high fee. wsj.com) Has economics run out of big ideas? economist.com) Economy Barry Ritholtz, "It may surprise you to learn that during this cycle of falling inflation, there seems to be little correlation with rising Fed Rates."
Economic Update: Retail Sales: Weaker than expected in January. Economic Surprise Index: Declined over the last 4-5 weeks from high levels. Outlook: Economy is in a soft patch, but if policy and geopolitical risks remain stable, markets could digest recent volatility. Economies and markets fluctuate.
The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine mhannan Fri, 08/11/2023 - 17:10 Unlike my good friends who frequent Baltimore’s finest dining establishments about as often as the division-leading Orioles win (you know who you are), I would never be confused for a wine connoisseur. was only marginally better.
Economic Update: Federal Reserve: Held rates steady at 4.25%4.50% Cited rising uncertainty around the economic outlook due to tariffs and slowing growth. Retail Sales (February): Headline number: rose 0.2% (below expectations of up 0.7%). Economies and markets fluctuate. A reminder of the value of global diversification.
theatlantic.com) Finding a good retail CEO is tough these days. bloomberg.com) Economy What does a 'no landing' economic scenario look like? (theblock.co) Companies Cory Doctorow, "In its nearly 25-year history, Google has made one and a half successful products: a once-great search engine and a pretty good Hotmail clone.
(behaviouralinvestment.com) Companies AMC ($AMC) keep playing to the retail crowd. riabiz.com) Economy Claudia Sahm, "Covid is the root cause of the economic mess today." hollywoodreporter.com) Signs that the CHIPS Act is already working. bloomberg.com) ETFs Fees matter, a lot, when it comes to ETF flows.
Additionally, retail sales kicked off the year with a large jump, suggesting the very tight labor market and solid income growth is supporting more-than-healthy consumer activity. Retail sales surge Retail sales experienced rarely-seen growth in January after declining in four of the previous six months. percent in January.
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of Districts this reporting cycle. Retail restocking spurred slight growth in transportation activity. Wages continued to grow at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts, while prices were generally reported to have risen modestly.
It uses (13 or so) inputs 1 to extrapolate a rough approximation of economic growth. I find these to be useful models but must constantly remind myself that they are merely rough approximations of the BEA GDP , which itself is a rough approximation of the US economy. Higgins Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, July 1, 2014 1.
Retail sales data, which give us a sense of how the consumer spending is looking. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated.
in November "In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen in November, resembling the sales activity seen during the COVID-19 economic lockdowns in 2020, " said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun." Existing-home sales chart courtesy of Trading Economics. Buyers have moved to the sidelines. Existing Home Sales Since 1969.
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Economist Says His Indicator That Predicted Eight US Recessions Is Wrong This Year : Cambell Harvey’s work showed link between curve inversion and growth Strong labor demand, risk avoidance support US economy now. Bloomberg ). The index is now up 8.9% from its October 12 closing low of 3,577.03
angellist.com) Economic uncertainty is not slow the pace of investment at Brookfield Infrastructure Partners ($BIP). institutionalinvestor.com) EconomyRetail sales fell 1.1% (institutionalinvestor.com) Startup valuations trended down in the second half of 2022. in December 2022.
This past week brought promising news for the markets and the broader economy. Inflation data came in at or below expectations, while economic indicators, including housing starts and retail sales, demonstrated surprising resilience.
npr.org) EconomyRetail sales are pointing to weaker growth. axios.com) Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, is the new, new 'Fed whisperer.' (investmentnews.com) Florida How Hurricane Ian is going to affect the Florida housing market. bonddad.blogspot.com) Apartment rents are in decline.
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