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Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately"

Calculated Risk

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Contacts in most Districts reported modest increases in selling prices, though there were instances of flat or decreasing prices as well, particularly in the retail and manufacturing sectors.

Economics 162
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Monday links: defining points in history

Abnormal Returns

jeffreyptak.substack.com) Global China is more diverse (economic) than you think. propublica.org) Economy Retail sales are decelerating. calculatedriskblog.com) More signs the economy is weakening. (morningstar.com) People are not dumping target date funds willy-nilly. paulkrugman.substack.com) The U.S.

Media 195
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Retail as a Service

The Big Picture

The resulting impact on CRE land and liabilities is a risk factor for the banking sector, and potentially a threat to the broader economic system. I want to float a new concept to CRE owners: Retail as a Service (RaaS). Not just the upper floors that tenants rented, but the ground floor retail as well.2

Retail 195
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Friday links: the siren song of FOMO

Abnormal Returns

ft.com) Retail How Target ($TGT) lost its shine. nytimes.com) Economy The Russian Ruble is tumbling in value. sherwood.news) Five economic reasons to be thankful including 'Low unemployment claims. (newsletter.rationalwalk.com) What happens to Microstrategy ($MSTR) if Bitcoin were classified as a security?

Media 162
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Signs of Softening

The Big Picture

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. Taking rates to the 1.50%-1.75% range had some bite, and we see the impact of this higher cost of credit combined with inflation impacting the economy. Real wholesale + retail sales.

Economics 321
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Want More Jobs? Raise the Minimum Wage

The Big Picture

The least contentious of which is that modest increases in minimum wages increase economic activity and create jobs. Perhaps even more surprising has been the wholesale abandonment of specific industries: Food service, retail, etc., It stays local and is likely to benefit the regional economy.

Food 364
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Sunday links: no point in selling

Abnormal Returns

priceactionlab.com) Retail traders are taking a break from trading. nber.org) Economy Economists did not foresee the strong labor market. thenation.com) Ozempic isn't going to ruin the economy. economicforces.xyz) The economic schedule for the coming week. cnbc.com) Why the stock market can rise in the face of war.