Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2023

Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Consumer spending was mixed, especially among general retailers and auto dealers, due to differences in prices and product offerings. The near-term outlook for the economy was generally described as stable or having slightly weaker growth.

Economics 162

Economics Retail Banking Manufacturing 162

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

thereformedbroker.com) The S&P 500 is not the economy. championbets.com.au) Economy What odds do term spread models put on a recession? economist.com) Five economic reasons to be thankful, including low unemployment claims. calculatedriskblog.com) Why you can safely ignore holiday retail spending forecasts.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Retail Economy Media 264

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

markets.businessinsider.com) Companies How retailers have responded to the post-pandemic era. morningstar.com) Economy The August NFP showed continued growth and a 3.8% ritholtz.com) Seven economic myths including that the consumer is 'tapped out.' awealthofcommonsense.com) U.S unemployment rate. wsj.com) The U.S.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Advertising Retail Economy 264

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2023

They also wrote the 2011 bestseller “ Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon ,” about the mortgage crisis. economy, but American society as a whole. KKR) — have grown to have an outsized impact on not just the U.S. taxpayers 180 billion dollars per decade.

Taxes 327

Taxes Retail Economy Economics 327

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 31, 2022

institutionalinvestor.com) Are retail investors going to return to crypto? economist.com) With economic sanctions in place, it's back to the future for the Russian auto industry. fortune.com) Economy Three things that are dampening economic pain, including remote work. wsj.com) People are removing.eth from their profiles.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Media Valuation Retail 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

Billions of Dollars at Stake in a Puzzling Holiday Shopping Season : It promises to be unpredictable, with retailers and consumers still figuring out how much will be spent and on what kinds of goods. ( Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research ). • The Political Economy Blog ). Businessweek ). New York Times ). •

Commission 313

Commission Budgeting Economics Retail 313

Advisor Perspectives

JUNE 24, 2024

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

Economics 81

Economics Retail Sales Economy 81

Abnormal Returns

JULY 23, 2023

ft.com) How Schwab ($SCHW) plans to profit from integrating TD Ameritrade retail customers. anneapplebaum.com) Economy Why haven't higher interest rates wrecked the economy already? awealthofcommonsense.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. wired.com) Why Egyptian men are fleeing to Europe.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Insurance Economy Retail 246

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model.

Economics 312

Economics Retail Banking Economy 312

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 25, 2023

wsj.com) Retail Dollar stores are attracting a more upscale crowd these days. axios.com) Economy Where various recession probability models stand. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (axios.com) Why everybody and their brother submitted a spot Bitcoin ETF application this week. to charity.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Valuation Retail Media 245

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Methodology Preliminary (not-yet-benchmarked) state employment estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue to be subject to significant revisions around turning points in the economy. Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

How people behave around financial decisions is important; what cognitive issues affect their thought process helps me give better advise to clients; last, how economic behavior impacts the markets and the economy affects us all. FOMO & TINA are really just “Fear & Greed” in another guise.

Retail 332

Retail Economy Accounting Numbers 332

MarketWatch

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

stock indexes opened lower on Wednesday after January retail sales number came in higher than expected, a sign that the U.S. economic growth picked up at the start of the year despite increased rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to tame inflation. retailers jumped 3% in January, topping the 1.9% The S&P 500 was off 0.6%

Retail 98

Retail Sales Economy Numbers 98

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 19, 2023

rationalwalk.com) How Covid changed retail (and restaurants). wsj.com) Economy Are bank failures actually helping the Fed crush inflation? tker.co) The economic schedule for the coming week. (allstarcharts.com) Companies Growth in spending on SaaS services is slowing. tomtunguz.com) Why Berkshire Hathaway's ($BRK.A)

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Retail Media Banking 244

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 3, 2024

Wired ) • If you want to know where the world economy is headed, look at the bottom of this toy car : We have a small collection of these cars, and occasionally I use them as a teaching tool. He oversees an exchange-traded fund US Quality Equity ETF ( QLTY ) — the first retail product from GMO since its launch in 1977.

Portfolio Management 290

Portfolio Management Economics Retail Manufacturing 290

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 17, 2023

March’s cooler CPI data provided further evidence that price pressures are fading in many pockets of the economy. Retail sales dropped in March for the fourth time in the past five months. Analysis: Poor spending to round out the first quarter Retail sales contracted by 1.0 Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg.

Economics 98

Economics Retail Economy Sales 98

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Retail and food service sales have increased at an 8.6% Economic indicators across consumption, income, industry and the labor market don’t point to a recession. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4% in the third quarter.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

Unusual Economic Indicators : You might have heard about indicators like the Big Mac Index (if you haven’t, you can read our previous article). However, there are many other lesser-known indicators that can actually provide valuable insights and are helpful for the economy. Most Unusual Economic Indicators 1. What is it?

Economy 64

Economy Economics Sales Government 64

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 22, 2023

Whether the Fed raises rate or holds steady on Wednesday, we see the unfortunate banking developments and ensuing tightening of lending standards as reinforcing our view that the economy is headed for a moderate recession in the second half of the 2023. Retail sales declined 0.4 Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg.

Banking 98

Banking Economics Sales Retail 98

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

etf.com) Companies Retailers are blaming organized theft as an excuse to close stores. finance.yahoo.com) Economy The ISM Manufacturing index fell for the 12th straight month. advisorperspectives.com) Americans aren't used to economic volatility. (on.spdji.com) Rates The Treasury market has become the hot new market.

Financial Advising 162

Financial Advising Retail Manufacturing Media 162

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Wholesale inventories are surging as retail inventories flatten. Also note that the US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession Add a huge inventory problem to this toxic mix. In the other two, inventories peaked just prior to or at the start of recession. Biggest Ramp in Wholesale Inventory History.

Manufacturing 208

Manufacturing Retail Economy Economics 208

Discipline Funds

OCTOBER 20, 2023

B) Retail investors hold a miniscule amount of long-term bonds. According to the Fed retail investors hold just 9% of outstanding bonds. That would mean that long-term Treasury Bonds are less than 1% of the average retail investor’s assets. 3) The “This is Fine” Economy.

Economy 101

Economy Retail Government Banking 101

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 15, 2023

tker.co) Reg D offerings for retail investors are often illiquid, low information and high fee. wsj.com) Has economics run out of big ideas? economist.com) Economy Barry Ritholtz, "It may surprise you to learn that during this cycle of falling inflation, there seems to be little correlation with rising Fed Rates."

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Economy Retail Economics 130

Zoe Financial

MARCH 3, 2025

Economic Update: Retail Sales: Weaker than expected in January. Economic Surprise Index: Declined over the last 4-5 weeks from high levels. Outlook: Economy is in a soft patch, but if policy and geopolitical risks remain stable, markets could digest recent volatility. Economies and markets fluctuate.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 52

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 11, 2023

The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine mhannan Fri, 08/11/2023 - 17:10 Unlike my good friends who frequent Baltimore’s finest dining establishments about as often as the division-leading Orioles win (you know who you are), I would never be confused for a wine connoisseur. was only marginally better.

Economy 98

Economy Manufacturing Clients Economics 98

Zoe Financial

MARCH 24, 2025

Economic Update: Federal Reserve: Held rates steady at 4.25%4.50% Cited rising uncertainty around the economic outlook due to tariffs and slowing growth. Retail Sales (February): Headline number: rose 0.2% (below expectations of up 0.7%). Economies and markets fluctuate. A reminder of the value of global diversification.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 52

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

theatlantic.com) Finding a good retail CEO is tough these days. bloomberg.com) Economy What does a 'no landing' economic scenario look like? (theblock.co) Companies Cory Doctorow, "In its nearly 25-year history, Google has made one and a half successful products: a once-great search engine and a pretty good Hotmail clone.

Financial Advising 147

Financial Advising Engineering Valuation Retail 147

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 9, 2022

(behaviouralinvestment.com) Companies AMC ($AMC) keep playing to the retail crowd. riabiz.com) Economy Claudia Sahm, "Covid is the root cause of the economic mess today." hollywoodreporter.com) Signs that the CHIPS Act is already working. bloomberg.com) ETFs Fees matter, a lot, when it comes to ETF flows.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Retail Media Economy 130

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 20, 2023

Additionally, retail sales kicked off the year with a large jump, suggesting the very tight labor market and solid income growth is supporting more-than-healthy consumer activity. Retail sales surge Retail sales experienced rarely-seen growth in January after declining in four of the previous six months. percent in January.

Economics 52

Economics Economy Retail Sales 52

Calculated Risk

JULY 17, 2024

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of Districts this reporting cycle. Retail restocking spurred slight growth in transportation activity. Wages continued to grow at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts, while prices were generally reported to have risen modestly.

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Transportation Banking Retail 147

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

It uses (13 or so) inputs 1 to extrapolate a rough approximation of economic growth. I find these to be useful models but must constantly remind myself that they are merely rough approximations of the BEA GDP , which itself is a rough approximation of the US economy. Higgins Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, July 1, 2014 1.

Banking 147

Banking Economics Retail Economy 147

Zoe Financial

NOVEMBER 11, 2024

Retail sales data, which give us a sense of how the consumer spending is looking. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Financial Advisor 52

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 21, 2022

in November "In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen in November, resembling the sales activity seen during the COVID-19 economic lockdowns in 2020, " said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun." Existing-home sales chart courtesy of Trading Economics. Buyers have moved to the sidelines. Existing Home Sales Since 1969.

Sales 167

Sales Economics Retail Economy 167

The Big Picture

JANUARY 9, 2023

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Economist Says His Indicator That Predicted Eight US Recessions Is Wrong This Year : Cambell Harvey’s work showed link between curve inversion and growth Strong labor demand, risk avoidance support US economy now. Bloomberg ). The index is now up 8.9% from its October 12 closing low of 3,577.03

Economy 173

Economy Valuation Education Retail 173

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 18, 2023

angellist.com) Economic uncertainty is not slow the pace of investment at Brookfield Infrastructure Partners ($BIP). institutionalinvestor.com) Economy Retail sales fell 1.1% (institutionalinvestor.com) Startup valuations trended down in the second half of 2022. in December 2022.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Startup Wealth Management Valuation 130

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 21, 2025

This past week brought promising news for the markets and the broader economy. Inflation data came in at or below expectations, while economic indicators, including housing starts and retail sales, demonstrated surprising resilience.

Economy 52

Economy Retail Economics Sales 52