Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). Q4-over-Q4 in 2023.

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investments 278

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2024?

Economics 226

Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. With the exception of the early stages of the pandemic, the decrease in total new sales was the sharpest since 2009.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022? "My New home sales were down 15.2%

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 4, 2023

theatlantic.com) Cold drinks make up some 75% of Starbucks ($SBUX) sales. map.simonsarris.com) Economy The July NFP report showed a 187k jump in jobs and a 3.5% bonddad.blogspot.com) The American economy is normalizing. economy has reached a new, post-pandemic phase. Hence the Hollywood strikes. unemployment rate.

Economics 246

Economics Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Some of those questions concerned real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment are on this blog). How much will the economy grow in 2024?

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investments 200

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. I also look at the yield curve, but I've found new home sales is generally more useful.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. So, it is extremely unlikely that we see a surge in distressed sales like happened after the housing bubble.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

wsj.com) Black Friday sales are now more annoying than ever. nytimes.com) Economy The Russian Ruble is tumbling in value. sherwood.news) Five economic reasons to be thankful including 'Low unemployment claims. (ft.com) BlackRock ($BLK) reportedly has a deal to buy HPS Investment Partners, a private credit manager.

Media 162

Media Retail Economy Economics 162

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. Taking rates to the 1.50%-1.75% range had some bite, and we see the impact of this higher cost of credit combined with inflation impacting the economy. Real wholesale + retail sales.

Economics 321

Economics Banking Retail Economy 321

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

Existing Home Sales Decline 9th Month, Down Another 5.9 Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. With the Fed rate hikes, Existing Home Sales Decline 9th Month, Down Another 5.9 Percent Existing Home Sales Crash Existing home sales are down 28.4% Existing home sales are down 31.7%

Sales 285

Sales Economics Consulting Economy 285

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 24, 2025

bigtechnology.com) Economy Sales of existing homes in the US hit their lowest level since 1995. calculatedriskblog.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: basic economics. (sherwood.news) Are AI companies wasting money? cnn.com) It looks like there was a stockpiling effect at the end of 2024.

Food 147

Food Taxes Media Economy 147

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2023

Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Real estate conditions were little changed and the inventory of homes for sale remained low. The near-term outlook for the economy was generally described as stable or having slightly weaker growth.

Economics 162

Economics Retail Manufacturing Banking 162

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2022

Sales volumes and average prices for virtual land have plunged this year, part of a broader slide in crypto and non-fungible token prices. Corporate Stagflation Means Rising Sales With Flat Volumes It’s growth, but not healthy growth, and it doesn’t really help the economy. The Information ). • New York Times ). Businessweek ).

Economics 304

Economics Economy Sales Banking 304

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? We have already seen a massive slowdown in home sales. Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How badly will third quarter earnings be hit? The trillion-dollar question.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Abnormal Returns

MAY 14, 2024

ofdollarsanddata.com) Economy Heavy truck sales rose in April. calculatedriskblog.com) Most economic data is an estimate, not the real thing. (morningstar.com) Don't confuse selling calls with income. rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Gold won't save you if stuff really hits the fan.

Financial Advising 258

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 258

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. Frozen Market The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports Existing-Home Sales Slumped 7.7% Frozen Market The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports Existing-Home Sales Slumped 7.7% Sales slipped 7.7% Existing Home Sales Supply.

Sales 167

Sales Economics Retail Economy 167

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

You can see why the NBER does not rely on GDP (pink line) alone; GDP was slightly negative, while Manufacturing and Trade Sales were more negative. It is difficult to look at these 6 (or 7) data points honestly and draw the conclusion that the nation’s economic activity in the first half shrunk.

Manufacturing 324

Manufacturing Economy Economics Sales 324

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 31, 2023

humbledollar.com) Why it's easy to say you will buy when stocks 'go on sale.' hypercritical.co) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 2.6% newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Just how much is China's economic growth slowing? Strategy Money market returns look good.almost too good. rise in house prices through August 2023.

Assets 260

Assets Financial Advising Media Economy 260

Abnormal Returns

JULY 9, 2023

vox.com) Economy Will interest rates eventually slow the U.S. awealthofcommonsense.com) Heavy truck sales are up some 15% year-over-year. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (themessenger.com) America's gun problem, visualized. tker.co) Nonresidential investment keeps growing.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Taxes Economy Media 246

Abnormal Returns

JULY 24, 2024

sherwood.news) Economy Why the Fed should cut rates now, not September. wsj.com) Existing home sales are moribund. sherwood.news) Relying on any single economic indicator is a mistake. (frontofficesports.com) Kellanova's ($K) Cheez-Its brand is killing it. axios.com) 3 in 5 Americans think we are already in recession.

Math 264

Math Financial Advising Media Economy 264

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

(theverge.com) Ozempic accounted for 41% of Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) total sales in 2023. blog.johnwallstreet.com) Economy The labor market continues to soften. blog.johnwallstreet.com) Economy The labor market continues to soften. econbrowser.com) Economic vibes are improving.

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Media Economy Accounting 262

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Methodology Preliminary (not-yet-benchmarked) state employment estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue to be subject to significant revisions around turning points in the economy. Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 5, 2024

wsj.com) Economy The March NFP report was 'uniformly positive.' bonddad.blogspot.com) Heavy truck sales ticked down in March. calculatedrisk.substack.com) Americans are confusing the current economic situation with their hopes for the future. (advisorperspectives.com) Why UK labor looks like a bargain right now.

Financial Advising 276

Financial Advising Advertising Media Economy 276

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 3, 2023

economy didn't go into recession this year. theatlantic.com) Why economic perceptions have been so negative. epsilontheory.com) Economy Heavy truck sales are at a record high in the U.S. economy afloat. (newyorker.com) Recession It's hard to see a recession in the data outside of industrial production.

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Portfolio Management Economy Media 244

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 7, 2023

axios.com) Economy Kyla Scanlon, "People are complex and economics doesn’t (can’t!) bonddad.blogspot.com) Heavy truck sales grew in November. (bloomberg.com) Bonds Vanguard is launching new actively managed bond ETFs. barrons.com) Electronic trading of corporate bonds is growing, albeit slowly. take that into consideration."

Digital Media 273

Digital Media Electronics Financial Advising Startup 273

The Big Picture

AUGUST 5, 2022

. • The people making millions off Listerine royalties A little-known provision in a 100-year-old contract opened up the door for private investors to mint money from mouthwash sales. ( All of the confusion results from turning the economy off and back on again. The Hustle ). Things are very weird right now. Contradictions abound.

License 289

License Economics Banking Economy 289

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

calculatedriskblog.com) The bifurcation between new and existing home sales continues. bonddad.blogspot.com) Economy Economic anxiety isn't going anywhere. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Case-Shiller shows a 1% increase in home prices year-over-year through July. morningstar.com) How politics broke consumer sentiment measures.

Asset Allocation 278

Asset Allocation Financial Advising Assets Media 278

Advisor Perspectives

JUNE 24, 2024

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

Economics 81

Economics Retail Sales Economy 81

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 10, 2024

investmentnews.com) Economy The U.S. economy is lapping the competition. sherwood.news) Seasonal adjustments matter when it comes to economic data. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Costco ($COST) is a big player in auto sales. theatlantic.com) The construction industry is booming. danieldrezner.substack.com)

Financial Advising 201

Financial Advising Startup Economy Insurance 201

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

We must keep at it until the job is done.’ ( Wall Street Journal ) see also The “Data-Dependent” Fed and the Data Interpreting the mixed signals across the economy, with a focus on inflation, jobs, and market pricing. ( thru the company’s sale to Yahoo; angel investor Etsy + Tumblr. The Overshoot ). Bloomberg ). •

Financial Advice 288

Financial Advice Engineering Economy Management 288

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model.

Economics 312

Economics Retail Banking Economy 312