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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 244
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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246
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Sunday links: asymmetric returns

Abnormal Returns

scheplick.com) Business The degenerate economy is booming. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org) Wealth taxes are attractive in theory, impractical in reality. msn.com) Heat is going to increasingly play a role in how the economy works. wapo.st) Economy More companies are now touting price cuts.

Medicine 312
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Sunday links: selling a product

Abnormal Returns

(theatlantic.com) Do data centers really deserve tax breaks? vox.com) Economy Some signs of economic caution. klementoninvesting.substack.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. newconsumer.com) Opportunity zones have been a disappointment. It’s my story. It’s your story. bloomberg.com) Crime The U.S.

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Sunday links: zombie brands

Abnormal Returns

papers.ssrn.com) Taxes No matter who is President in 2025, taxes will be at the top of the agenda. sherwood.news) Economy The U.S. economy is on shakier ground. ft.com) The labor economy has slowed down to pre-pandemic levels. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

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Sunday links: pausing and reflecting

Abnormal Returns

downtownjoshbrown.com) Strategy The economy is not the stock market, and vice versa. washingtonmonthly.com) Tax enforcement pays for itself. slowboring.com) Economy Air travel is now well above pre-pandemic levels. calculatedriskblog.com) The economy isn't in recession, but it isn't perfect.

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Sunday links: a nation of bad drivers

Abnormal Returns

philbak.substack.com) Taxes How much do higher taxes prompt millionaires to relocate? theatlantic.com) Is there a better way to maximize charitable giving instead of a tax deduction? vox.com) Trying to tax all families equitably is a dilemma. npr.org) Economy Why wealth inequality is growing.