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4th Quarter 2023 Economic And Market Outlook: Labor Market, Inflation, And Geopolitics

Nerd's Eye View

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Businesses are also feeling the pinch from higher interest rates, as November saw a rapid increase in the number of Chapter 11 commercial bankruptcies.

Economics 246
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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246
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Sunday links: forecasting accuracy

Abnormal Returns

washingtonpost.com) Measuring economic inequality is harder than it looks. vox.com) Threats of violence against elected officials and government officials are on the rise. washingtonpost.com) The number of American centenarians is set to quadruple. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

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Never Mix Payroll and Household Survey Data

The Big Picture

MSM uncritically repeated the false number. I spend far too much time debunking economic b t. But the latest statistics show that nearly all jobs that are being created in California are government jobs. Between January 2022 and June 2024, total California jobs grew by about 156,000, with government jobs accounting for 96.5

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Sunday links: a liberating mindset

Abnormal Returns

bloomberg.com) Policy More of government should work like Operation Warp Speed. marginalrevolution.com) Global Home ownership is out of reach for an increasing number of Australians. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

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Eurozone Target2 Economic Imbalances Soar, This Money Can't Be Paid Back

Mish Talk

Target 2 balances from the ECB, numbers and caption by Mish. There is a single 10-year government bond. TARGET2 is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system owned and operated by the Eurosystem. The Target2 Lead Chart is courtesy of the ECB. It shows Target 2 creditor and debtor nations. trillion continue to mount in Germany.

Economics 218
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At the Money: Is War Good for Markets?

The Big Picture

But after this this war period, there was inflation stimulated by government spending. So what were the numbers like after World War 1 and after World War 2? So what were the numbers like after World War 1 and after World War 2? It’s government spending period. Barry Ritholtz : More than a rally. And all the rest.

Marketing 317