Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% Q4-over-Q4 in 2024.

Economics 226

Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Along those lines, here are in chronological order, the thinkers who have helped shape how I view the world view, including how I philosophically think about the economy, markets, and investing. 10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy 1. Being right may be a necessary condition for investment success, but it won’t be sufficient.

Investing 345

Investing Investments Economy Portfolio 345

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). 7) Question #7 for 2022: How much will Residential investment change in 2022? I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough). Banks generally tightened standards on mortgage loans.

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. Recent Economic Data Economic growth The economy has been growing at a solid pace. Further, recent surveys of households and businesses point to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook. GDP expanded at a 2.3

Economics 147

Economics Economy Communication Food 147

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 20, 2024

Todays economic environment is creating dispersion across bond sectors, introducing various levels of opportunity.

Portfolio 262

Portfolio Investing Investments Economics 262

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 4, 2023

whitecoatinvestor.com) A Q&A with William Bernstein author of "The Four Pillars of Investing." wsj.com) Don't confuse collectibles with investments. Strategy Why you can't hedge inflation in the short run. investmentnews.com) Apple Services and wearables are the standouts for Apple ($AAPL).

Economics 246

Economics Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 246

Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Multifamily has maintained its status as the best performing and most resilient asset class through economic cycles.

Investing 312

Investing Investments Economics Assets 312

The Big Picture

AUGUST 23, 2023

Most people believe that investing is the science of generating a return on capital. At its heart, investing is a problem-solving exercise , filled with opportunities that reveal the errors we all make. This should be reflected in how we invest. That is an accurate but incomplete assessment. – “ Future ” demands optimism.

Investing 246

Investing Investments Asset Allocation Healthcare 246

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 1, 2022

As interest rates continue to rise and economic forecasts remain murky, what are commercial real estate investors doing to raise capital and reach their desired returns?

Investing 278

Investing Investments Economics 278

Wealth Management

MAY 4, 2023

The head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth talks "dumb indexes," "smart beta" and intelligent design.

Investing 287

Investing Investments Economics 287

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. The key point is that, given the current economic uncertainty, there are several ways that advisors can help clients prepare for potential downturns.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Wealth Management

MARCH 30, 2023

In uncertain economic environments, institutional and foreign commercial real estate investors often revert to the safety of the biggest American cities.

Investing 279

Investing Investments Economics Marketing 279

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 18, 2023

wsj.com) Why Germany's economic growth is slowing, relative to the rest of Europe. (nytimes.com) Five ways to save on streaming, including cell phone offers. washingtonpost.com) Global Novo Nordisk ($NVO) dominates the Danish stock market. economist.com) China is becoming Japan, demographically.

Investing 245

Investing Investments Financial Advising Startup 245

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

And even though numerous signs are pointing to the looming possibility of a more widespread economic downturn – including the reduction of household savings, reduced lending, and the resumption of student loan payments for many borrowers – the job market remains strong. And even though U.S.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

 This week, we speak with Andrew Slimmon , managing director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management , where he leads the Applied Equity Advisors team. He began his career at Morgan Stanley in 1991 as an adviser in private wealth management, and later served as chief investment officer of the Morgan Stanley Trust Co.

Management 200

Management Investing Investments Wealth Management 200

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2025

market is overvalued, and if the alternative investment industry is one of the biggest grifts in economic history. market is overvalued, and if the alternative investment industry is one of the biggest grifts in economic history. They unpack why diversification is both boring and sexy, whether the U.S.

Investing 147

Investing Investments Wealth Management Economics 147

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

abnormalreturns.com) There is no holy grail in investing. (ft.com) Why productivity is surging. nytimes.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Personal finance links: an IOU to the IRS. abnormalreturns.com) It may take some time, but markets eventually work. abnormalreturns.com) What you missed in our Tuesday linkest.

Economics 202

Economics Financial Advising Insurance Media 202

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 25, 2022

percent in the second quarter of 2022 , according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The update primarily reflects upward revisions to consumer spending and private inventory investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to residential fixed investment. percent in the first quarter.

Economics 324

Economics Investing Investments 324

Calculated Risk

JULY 29, 2022

The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 11.7% Investment in petroleum and natural gas structures increased in Q2 compared to Q1 and was up 31% year-over-year. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. annual pace in Q2. year-over-year. of GDP).

Commission 363

Commission Manufacturing Investing Investments 363

Calculated Risk

JULY 28, 2022

percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. rate, and residential investment decreased at a 14.0% From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9

Government 333

Government Economics Investing Investments 333

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

I spend a lot of time debunking investment-related b t. Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. Axios reported yesterday that “2024 will be the U.S.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

percent in the second quarter of 2023 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment. percent (revised).

Economics 312

Economics Government Accounting Investing 312

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

The transcript from this weeks, MiB: Charley Ellis on Rethinking Investing , is below. Charlie Ellis is just a legend in the world of investing. He was chairman of the Yale’s Endowment Investment Committee and his, not only did he write 21 books, his new book, rethinking Investing, is just a delightful snack.

Investing 162

Investing Investments Management Engineering 162

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 12, 2022

Most participants remarked that, although some interest-sensitive categories of spending—such as housing and business fixed investment—had already started to respond to the tightening of financial conditions, a sizable portion of economic activity had yet to display much response. emphasis added

Communication 363

Communication Economics Risk Management Management 363

Wealth Management

FEBRUARY 12, 2024

Higher borrowing costs, volatile markets and economic uncertainty have made it more difficult for private equity firms to exit their existing investments through sales or initial public offerings.

Economics 305

Economics Sales Investing Investments 305

Wealth Management

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

Uncertain economic indicators bode well for investment in infrastructure.

Economics 288

Economics Investing Investments 288

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 17, 2025

podcasts.apple.com) Katie Gatti Tassin talks about the economics of weight loss drugs. joincolossus.com) Patrick O'Shaughnessy talks biotech investing with Tal Zaks who is a Partner at OrbiMed. buzzsprout.com) Meb Faber talks endowment style investing with Wendy Li, founder and CIO of Ivy Invest.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Investing Investments 162

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

Probability Distribution of the next decade in S&P 500 returns (according to GS) Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research My colleague Ben Carlson buried the lede when he did an examination of all rolling 10-year periods going back to 1925. He found less than 9% of those 10 year periods had returns of 3% or less.

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Banking 326

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 21, 2023

Education about gold investments is key to ensuring clients have a well-balanced portfolio that can withstand economic fluctuations.

Portfolio 289

Portfolio Clients Education Economics 289

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 29, 2025

Podcasts Christine Benz and Dan Lefkovitz talk with John Rekenthaler about his long career writing about investing. morningstar.com) Peter Lazaroff on how much money you need to retire. peterlazaroff.com) Family Every decision we make has trade-offs: the case for staying home to care for small children.

Economics 173

Economics Retirement Financial Advisor Investing 173

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. Economic headwinds have been steadily mounting, and finally led to weakening demand for new projects,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for October was 47.7,

Investing 363

Investing Investments Economics 363

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 12, 2023

In this episode, we talk in-depth about why Jason built Altruist as a solution to help RIAs based on his own experience as an engineer, RIA owner, and TAMP owner, to leverage the economics being an RIA custodian in order to offer advisors their core investment systems at a lower cost, how Jason leveraged many of the programs' infrastructures and processes (..)

Financial Advisor 246

Financial Advisor Investing Investments Financial Advice 246

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 25, 2024

awealthofcommonsense.com) Just because something is an index fund doesn't mean its a good investment. Vance's hometown of Middletown, OH is experiencing an economic turnaround. papers.ssrn.com) Is economic globalization really going in reverse? apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 277

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 277

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

Sept 27th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: The details of yesterday’s durable goods report and this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators report were stronger than our previous GDP tracking assumptions, while the details of the PCE report were slightly softer. q/q saar while 2Q GDP came in at 3.0%

Economics 296

Economics Sales Investing Investments 296

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 15, 2024

 This week, we speak with Colin Camerer , Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at California Institute of Technology. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and holds fellowship at the Econometric Society and the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory.

Portfolio Management 316

Portfolio Management Economics Portfolio Assets 316

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 9, 2024

wsj.com) Investing in ports has positive spillover economic effects. wsj.com) A plan to invest and accelerate agricultural productivity. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (nytimes.com) Russia's population has been shrinking for decades. wsj.com) Policy What happens if the 2017 tax cuts lapse.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Budgeting Economics Media 278

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363