Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 17, 2025

podcasts.apple.com) Katie Gatti Tassin talks about the economics of weight loss drugs. joincolossus.com) Patrick O'Shaughnessy talks biotech investing with Tal Zaks who is a Partner at OrbiMed. buzzsprout.com) Meb Faber talks endowment style investing with Wendy Li, founder and CIO of Ivy Invest.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Investing Investments 162

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 29, 2025

Podcasts Christine Benz and Dan Lefkovitz talk with John Rekenthaler about his long career writing about investing. morningstar.com) Peter Lazaroff on how much money you need to retire. peterlazaroff.com) Family Every decision we make has trade-offs: the case for staying home to care for small children.

Economics 173

Economics Retirement Financial Advisor Investing 173

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 15, 2024

 This week, we speak with Colin Camerer , Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at California Institute of Technology. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and holds fellowship at the Econometric Society and the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory.

Portfolio Management 316

Portfolio Management Economics Portfolio Assets 316

Calculated Risk

JULY 28, 2022

Note: The second graph - residential investment as a percent of GDP - is useful in predicting a Fed induced recession. percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Of course - with the sudden economic stop due to COVID-19 - the usual pattern didn't apply.

Investing 352

Investing Investments Government Commission 352

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investing 345

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 1, 2025

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). in November, up from 3.7%

Economics 272

Economics Sales Investing Investments 272

Wealth Management

AUGUST 20, 2024

Vanguard published its most recent investment and economic outlook, which lays out its bull case for bonds. These are among the investment must reads we found this week for wealth advisors. With the election season heating up, Morningstar looked at how the potential outcomes could affect investors.

Investing 273

Investing Investments Wealth Advisor Economics 273

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. Click on graph for larger image.

Clients 270

Clients Investing Investments Economics 270

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Taxes 309

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Through November, starts were down 4.3%

Sales 147

Sales Investing Investments Commission 147

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 3, 2024

Yet, by taking a measured look at factors driving economic activity and influencing behavior, advisors can help clients face risks they can't control and (hopefully) position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they develop. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 244

Economics Marketing Marketing Valuation 244

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% Q4-over-Q4 in 2024.

Economics 226

Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Goods exports were softer than suggested by the Advance Economic Indicators report, while wholesale inventories were slightly firmer. [Mar 7th] emphasis added From Goldman: The details of the trade balance report indeed indicated that elevated gold imports contributed the bulk of increase in imports in January. percent on March 6, up from -2.8

Economics 179

Economics Management Investing Investments 179

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Along those lines, here are in chronological order, the thinkers who have helped shape how I view the world view, including how I philosophically think about the economy, markets, and investing. 10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy 1. Being right may be a necessary condition for investment success, but it won’t be sufficient.

Investing 345

Investing Investments Economy Portfolio 345

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). 7) Question #7 for 2022: How much will Residential investment change in 2022? I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough). Banks generally tightened standards on mortgage loans.

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2025

It made me realize that, despite my extensive research into the psychology underlying behavioral economics, I suffered from the exact same cognitive errors as everyone else. It was never me that made all of those mistakes. But it was. That game was eye-opening. As Daniel Kahneman explained , “We are blind to our blindness.

Economics 308

Economics Assets Clients Investing 308

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 20, 2024

Todays economic environment is creating dispersion across bond sectors, introducing various levels of opportunity.

Portfolio 262

Portfolio Investing Investments Economics 262

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 4, 2023

whitecoatinvestor.com) A Q&A with William Bernstein author of "The Four Pillars of Investing." wsj.com) Don't confuse collectibles with investments. Strategy Why you can't hedge inflation in the short run. investmentnews.com) Apple Services and wearables are the standouts for Apple ($AAPL).

Economics 246

Economics Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 246

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 27, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Residential investment was revised up from 5.3% In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 PCE growth was unrevised at 4.2%.

Government 173

Government Economics Investing Investments 173

Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Multifamily has maintained its status as the best performing and most resilient asset class through economic cycles.

Investing 312

Investing Investments Economics Assets 312

The Big Picture

AUGUST 23, 2023

Most people believe that investing is the science of generating a return on capital. At its heart, investing is a problem-solving exercise , filled with opportunities that reveal the errors we all make. This should be reflected in how we invest. That is an accurate but incomplete assessment. – “ Future ” demands optimism.

Investing 246

Investing Investments Asset Allocation Healthcare 246

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 1, 2022

As interest rates continue to rise and economic forecasts remain murky, what are commercial real estate investors doing to raise capital and reach their desired returns?

Investing 278

Investing Investments Economics 278

Wealth Management

MAY 4, 2023

The head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth talks "dumb indexes," "smart beta" and intelligent design.

Investing 287

Investing Investments Economics 287

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. The key point is that, given the current economic uncertainty, there are several ways that advisors can help clients prepare for potential downturns.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Wealth Management

MARCH 30, 2023

In uncertain economic environments, institutional and foreign commercial real estate investors often revert to the safety of the biggest American cities.

Investing 279

Investing Investments Economics Marketing 279

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 18, 2023

wsj.com) Why Germany's economic growth is slowing, relative to the rest of Europe. (nytimes.com) Five ways to save on streaming, including cell phone offers. washingtonpost.com) Global Novo Nordisk ($NVO) dominates the Danish stock market. economist.com) China is becoming Japan, demographically.

Investing 245

Investing Investments Financial Advising Startup 245

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

And even though numerous signs are pointing to the looming possibility of a more widespread economic downturn – including the reduction of household savings, reduced lending, and the resumption of student loan payments for many borrowers – the job market remains strong. And even though U.S.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

 This week, we speak with Andrew Slimmon , managing director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management , where he leads the Applied Equity Advisors team. He began his career at Morgan Stanley in 1991 as an adviser in private wealth management, and later served as chief investment officer of the Morgan Stanley Trust Co.

Management 200

Management Investing Investments Wealth Management 200

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 4, 2025

Skew Why investors avoid positive-skew investment strategies. bpsandpieces.com) A round of recent research including 'Do Generalist CEOs Reduce Corporate Default Risk?' (alphainacademia.substack.com) Some popular economics books to avoid including "Power and Progress," by Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson.

Math 147

Math Assets Economics Portfolio 147

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

abnormalreturns.com) There is no holy grail in investing. (ft.com) Why productivity is surging. nytimes.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Personal finance links: an IOU to the IRS. abnormalreturns.com) It may take some time, but markets eventually work. abnormalreturns.com) What you missed in our Tuesday linkest.

Economics 202

Economics Financial Advising Insurance Media 202

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 25, 2022

percent in the second quarter of 2022 , according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The update primarily reflects upward revisions to consumer spending and private inventory investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to residential fixed investment. percent in the first quarter.

Economics 324

Economics Investing Investments 324

Calculated Risk

JULY 29, 2022

The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 11.7% Investment in petroleum and natural gas structures increased in Q2 compared to Q1 and was up 31% year-over-year. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. annual pace in Q2. year-over-year. of GDP).

Commission 363

Commission Manufacturing Investing Investments 363

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2025

Echo Beach ) Why Japan Succeeds Despite Stagnation : For more than three decades, Japan has endured near-complete economic stagnation. His most recent book is is Rethinking Investing: A Very Short Guide to Very Long-Term Investing. There are few left to trust. Despite this, Japan is still a desirable place to live and work.

Transportation 162

Transportation Economics Media Investing 162

Calculated Risk

JULY 28, 2022

percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. rate, and residential investment decreased at a 14.0% From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9

Government 333

Government Economics Investing Investments 333

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

I spend a lot of time debunking investment-related b t. Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. Axios reported yesterday that “2024 will be the U.S.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

percent in the second quarter of 2023 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment. percent (revised).

Economics 312

Economics Government Accounting Investing 312

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 12, 2022

Most participants remarked that, although some interest-sensitive categories of spending—such as housing and business fixed investment—had already started to respond to the tightening of financial conditions, a sizable portion of economic activity had yet to display much response. emphasis added

Communication 363

Communication Economics Risk Management Management 363