Abnormal Returns

APRIL 8, 2024

marketwatch.com) How India could help drive global economic growth. bonddad.blogspot.com) Where the manufacturing economy stands. (on.ft.com) European companies are coming around to stock buybacks. bloomberg.com) Economy The employment economy is humming along. econbrowser.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Adviser links: elder finances.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Economy Manufacturing Media 278

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. While we may not be in a recession yet, economic momentum has clearly slowed. The technical academic answer is we are not in a recession, but we are clearly slowing down economically.

Economics 322

Economics Banking Retail Economy 322

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 12, 2023

(econbrowser.com) Any economic slowdown is coming with consumers in pretty good shape. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Economic activity continues to shift toward these four Sunbelt cities. nytimes.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. ft.com) How this manufacturer is making a four-day workweek work. npr.org)

Financial Advising 284

Financial Advising Economics Economy Manufacturing 284

Calculated Risk

MARCH 6, 2024

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly, on balance, since early January, with eight Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, three others reporting no change, and one District noting a slight softening. Manufacturing activity was largely unchanged, and supply bottlenecks normalized further.

Economics 115

Economics Manufacturing Insurance Engineering 115

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

You can see why the NBER does not rely on GDP (pink line) alone; GDP was slightly negative, while Manufacturing and Trade Sales were more negative. It is difficult to look at these 6 (or 7) data points honestly and draw the conclusion that the nation’s economic activity in the first half shrunk.

Manufacturing 325

Manufacturing Economy Economics Sales 325

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 9, 2024

(cnbc.com) Global Japan is trying to rebuild its chip manufacturing sector. wsj.com) Economy State coincident indicators show continued economic strength. nytimes.com) Russia is illegally holding Ukrainians in Crimea. vanityfair.com) How Starlink boxes are ending up all over the world including in the hands of Russian forces.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Manufacturing Economy Media 264

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 7, 2022

(nytimes.com) High tech immigration is necessary for rebuilding US manufacturing. politico.com) How friendships across economic classes affect income mobility. theconversation.com) Economics Putting the July NFP into some historical perspective. (wsj.com) The 3 month-10 year term spread is nearing inversion.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Economics Food Manufacturing 246

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Manufacturing jobs are still strong, at least as reported. Average weekly hours of manufacturers fell 0.2 I expected that decline in manufacturing hours and expect still more coming up. The model is wrong at economic turning points and is also heavily revised and thus essentially useless. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls.

Manufacturing 327

Manufacturing Retirement Numbers Economics 327

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturing economy is bumping along. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (bbc.com) Belarus is complicit in the abduction of Ukrainian children. npr.org) Human population may soon peak.

Financial Advising 284

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 284

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 21, 2024

humbledollar.com) Companies Why Boeing ($BA) took its eye off manufacturing quality. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (microcapclub.com) No portfolio strategy is perfect. rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Financial trends reverse just when they seem inevitable. nytimes.com) Chipotle ($CMG) is on a roll.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Taxes Communication Manufacturing 278

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Rather than accept the volatility of month-to-month economic datapoints — NFP, Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Inflation, etc. The temptation to respond to every economic shift every new data point each new change in probabilities is how people end up chopping themselves up with small costs that are accruing into larger ones.

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2024

Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity expanded slightly , on balance, since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth—up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity.

Economics 109

Economics Manufacturing Sales Banking 109

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The November Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent , 1.2 The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 (Posted with permission).

Manufacturing 105

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 105

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.1% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.1% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The April Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.1 The PMI® was at 47.1% in March, up from 46.3%

Manufacturing 100

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 100

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 7, 2023

coindesk.com) Companies How Apple ($AAPL) saves money on new chips manufactured by Taiwan Semi ($TSM). wsj.com) Economy Tyler Cowen, "It’s important to resist the temptation to think of economic expansions in moral terms." Crypto PayPal ($PYPL) has launched its own stablecoin. theverge.com) Five questions about the PayPal stablecoin.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Manufacturing Media Banking 246

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 3, 2024

I ask students in my economics classes to inspect the cars’ undersides, and together we trace the gradual movement of toy car manufacturing: from England and the United States in the 1960s to Japan in the mid-1970s, from South Korea in the mid-1980s to China in the late 1990s and Vietnam after.

Portfolio Management 291

Portfolio Management Economics Retail Manufacturing 291

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 20, 2024

bloomberg.com) Ukraine is trying to boost its own weapons manufacturing. reuters.com) Economy By any reasonable measure, the average American is better off economically than they were four years ago. (entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy.

Financial Advising 253

Financial Advising Startup Valuation Economy 253

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 19, 2023

rollingstone.com) Ammunition manufactured in a federal facility has found its way into the hands of mass shooters. apricitas.io) The economic schedule for the coming holiday-shortened week. nytimes.com) AR-15s are designed to kill human beings. The Washington Post shows the results. tker.co) Q4 GDP looking to be in the 2% range.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Commission Manufacturing Media 278

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies. Fall & Winter Double Issue With that background please consider the Philadelphia Fed Fall & Economic Insights Winter Double Issue for 2022 Q3 and Q4, emphasis mine. Percent Manufacturing: -0.61

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 17, 2023

morningstar.com) Economy Any single economic data point is filled with noise. ritholtz.com) Vehicle manufacturing is holding up industrial production. (etf.com) How options income ETFs are marketed. economist.com) On the prospects of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Valuation Manufacturing Government 246

Abnormal Returns

JULY 24, 2022

tker.co) On the secular decline of manufactured housing. axios.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (frontofficesports.com) Big Tech keeps snapping up live sports rights. nytimes.com) Why MLB needs to shorten games. americanpurpose.com) Housing All the housing data are moving in one direction.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Food Manufacturing Government 264

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

March 1: ISM Manufacturing ISM manufacturing stays in contraction The ISM manufacturing index is expected to see a slight uptick in February but should remain in contractionary territory. Under normal circumstances, January’s spending would be celebrated as a sign of robust consumer activity and continued economic expansion.

Economics 98

Economics Sales Manufacturing Economy 98

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

For example, weapons manufacturers would have to quantify and disclose the amount of CO2 generated from their own facilities; manufacturers that produce steel, computer chips and motors used in their weapons; propellants and fuel; and even munition storage areas. The rule would cover 5,766 contractors that have received at least $7.5

Nonprofit 287

Nonprofit Pharmaceutical Budgeting Manufacturing 287

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

The expectations were this would be temporary, as supply chains would untangle and manufacturers would come back online. The latest plot line was simply the animal spirits have been awoken and they have run amok and that’s how we have avoided an economic contraction. The following year similarly saw a substantial 28% rally.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 21, 2024

apparel manufacturers are facing new competitive pressure. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (wsj.com) Citi's ($C) pullback from the muni market is having effects alreayd. wsj.com) Policy Noah Smith, "U.S. industrial policy is running into at least three big sets of problems." noahpinion.blog) U.S.

Financial Advising 213

Financial Advising Economy Manufacturing Media 213

Abnormal Returns

MAY 19, 2024

sherwood.news) First Solar ($FSLR) is now the world's most valuable solar panel manufacturer. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (humbledollar.com) Companies It was a busy week in AI. bigtechnology.com) Reddit ($RDDT) is going to license data to OpenAI. finance.yahoo.com) The dream of streaming is dead.

License 210

License Financial Advising Economy Manufacturing 210

The Big Picture

APRIL 21, 2023

Manufacturing firms? Price does. ~~~ Samuel Rines is the managing director at Corbu, Samuel Rines is an analyst of all things economic with a focus on how “the micro meets the the macro”. makes for a difficult argument that there is a disincentive to continue finding that elasticity breaking point. Pushing price. Services firms?

Economy 329

Economy Banking Manufacturing Management 329

The Big Picture

MARCH 22, 2023

manufacturing can’t compete on cost, but it has a leg up in some areas. ( manufacturing can’t compete on cost, but it has a leg up in some areas. ( Even though it feels like I’ve lived through every economic or market environment imaginable, I know there will be plenty of stuff that happens in the future that will surprise me. (

Risk Management 294

Risk Management Manufacturing Management Government 294

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2024

Fed's Beige Book A majority of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period. Contacts from nearly all Districts reported decreases in manufacturing activity. Of the four Districts that differed, three reported modest growth and one reported a moderate decline.

Economics 80

Economics eCommerce Manufacturing Sales 80

The Big Picture

AUGUST 22, 2022

Remote Work Is Sticking : About a third of all service work and just under 10% of manufacturing work in the region was being done remotely—a huge jump from 8% and 3%, respectively, before the pandemic. Liberty Street Economics ) see also Pizza? Wall Street Journal ). You Need Banh Mi to Get Employees Back to the Office.

Food 307

Food Manufacturing Government Retirement 307

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

A Big Trucking Red Flag Composite PMI Manufacturing Has Peaked This Cycle. ISM data provides strong evidence that Manufacturing Has Peaked This Cycle The only major component of the Manufacturing PMI ® not in contraction is production. One way or another and perhaps both, there is huge problem somewhere.

Manufacturing 208

Manufacturing Retail Economy Economics 208

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2024

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.8% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.8% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.8 A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent , down 5.9

Manufacturing 63

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 63

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 23, 2024

Deloitte has released a promising forecast for India’s economic growth. The government actively supports manufacturing sector growth. Therefore, these factors work together to drive economic progress. First, the manufacturing sector shows remarkable expansion. The manufacturing sector also shows promise with 76.4

Economy 116

Economy Manufacturing Economics Investments 116

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

finance.yahoo.com) Economy The ISM Manufacturing index fell for the 12th straight month. advisorperspectives.com) Americans aren't used to economic volatility. (nytimes.com) A new hedge fund is set to launch with a unique structure: an attached news organization attached. on.ft.com) Two Sigma is spinning off its impact arm.

Financial Advising 162

Financial Advising Retail Manufacturing Media 162

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Please consider the November 2022 Services ISM ® Report On Business ® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI ® registering 56.5 However, the recent ISM manufacturing report went into contraction, catching up a bit with S&P. percent, 2.4

Economy 190

Economy Manufacturing Economics Healthcare 190

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 26, 2022

Other key indicators include the 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP, the September Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, October Personal Income & Outlays (and PCE), the November ISM manufacturing index, and November vehicle sales. 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for a 5.0% decrease in the index.

Manufacturing 125

Manufacturing Sales Economics Banking 125

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 28, 2023

Stay at Home Macro ) • The Great Disconnect: Why Voters Feel One Way About the Economy but Act Differently : Americans are angry and anxious, and not just about prices, which may be driving economic sentiment more than their financial situations, economists said. ( The good news stretches far beyond the rich. Jobs are plentiful.

Economy 234

Economy Manufacturing Taxes Economics 234