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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 225
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4th Quarter 2023 Economic And Market Outlook: Labor Market, Inflation, And Geopolitics

Nerd's Eye View

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. While the manufacturing sector (which makes up 'only' 8% of the U.S.

Economics 229
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Cooler inflation numbers are encouraging: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook

Nationwide Financial

In other economic news, the NFIB small business survey showed decreasing optimism among small business owners, many of whom have a negative outlook on the economy and expected sales for 2023. Small business optimism fell in December as firms reported lower earnings and reduced expectations for economic growth in the first half of 2023.

Numbers 52
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US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession

Mish Talk

Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 Flash US Manufacturing PMI at 47.6 The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 October: 48.2). 3-month low.

Economy 290
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Sunday links: a liberating mindset

Abnormal Returns

(marginalrevolution.com) Global Home ownership is out of reach for an increasing number of Australians. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturing economy is bumping along. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. npr.org) Human population may soon peak.

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Another Strong Jobs Report? Phooey, and I Can Prove It

Mish Talk

The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. Manufacturing jobs are still strong, at least as reported. Average weekly hours of manufacturers fell 0.2 I expected that decline in manufacturing hours and expect still more coming up. hour to 34.4

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Further slowing of economic activity as Fed rate hikes bite: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook

Nationwide Financial

March’s employment report showed a continued moderation in job growth, but the number of hires was still solid. The ISM manufacturing and services surveys both fell, with manufacturing falling further into contraction and services nearing contraction. Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg.