The Big Picture

APRIL 21, 2023

And the current S&P Global PMI numbers serve to reinforce the PoV narrative. Manufacturing firms? Price does. ~~~ Samuel Rines is the managing director at Corbu, Samuel Rines is an analyst of all things economic with a focus on how “the micro meets the the macro”. And P&G does not appear to have found it yet.

Economy 329

Economy Banking Manufacturing Management 329

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies. Fall & Winter Double Issue With that background please consider the Philadelphia Fed Fall & Economic Insights Winter Double Issue for 2022 Q3 and Q4, emphasis mine. Percent Manufacturing: -0.61 But hooray!

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2022

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 28,000, combined. Manufacturing added 30 thousand jobs and is now 41 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: July Employment Report: 528 thousand Jobs, 3.5% million jobs.

Numbers 145

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 145

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NOVEMBER 4, 2022

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 29,000, combined. Manufacturing added 32 thousand jobs and is now 137 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The participation rate decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.

Retail 141

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 141

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. Manufacturing employment increased 8 thousand and is now 181 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47

Numbers 127

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 127

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JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. Manufacturing employment increased 8 thousand and is now 185 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42

Numbers 127

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 127

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Manufacturing employment was unchanged and is now 176 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31

Numbers 127

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 127

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 28,000, combined. Manufacturing added 8 thousand jobs and is now 149 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: December Employment Report: 223 thousand Jobs, 3.5% million jobs.

Retail 145

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 145

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 71,000, combined. Manufacturing added 19 thousand jobs and is now 214 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. With revisions: The 4.81 million jobs. million, was little changed in January.

Numbers 145

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 145

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MAY 5, 2023

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 149,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 11 thousand jobs and is now 206 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: April Employment Report: 253 thousand Jobs, 3.4%

Numbers 144

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 144

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AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. Manufacturing employment increased 1 thousand and is now 173 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57

Numbers 127

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 127

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 17, 2023

In other economic news, the NFIB small business survey showed decreasing optimism among small business owners, many of whom have a negative outlook on the economy and expected sales for 2023. Small business optimism fell in December as firms reported lower earnings and reduced expectations for economic growth in the first half of 2023.

Numbers 52

Numbers Economics Retail Sales 52

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 7 thousand jobs and is now 204 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 21 thousand jobs in June.

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

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DECEMBER 2, 2022

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined. Manufacturing added 14 thousand jobs and is now 149 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 88 thousand jobs in November. million jobs.

Retail 131

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 131

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 14, 2024

For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates. -- Monday, September 16th -- 8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of -4.0,

Retail 124

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 124

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. Manufacturing employment decreased 7 thousand and is now 137 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: September Employment Report: 254 thousand Jobs, 4.1% YoY in September.

Numbers 122

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 122

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MARCH 10, 2023

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 34,000, combined. Manufacturing lost 4 thousand jobs and is now 198 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The participation rate increased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.6%.

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Economic indicators across consumption, income, industry and the labor market don’t point to a recession. Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. in the third quarter.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 17 thousand jobs and is now 226 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: September Employment Report: 336 thousand Jobs, 3.8%

Numbers 124

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 124

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SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 16 thousand jobs and is now 212 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: August Employment Report: 187 thousand Jobs, 3.8%

Numbers 124

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 124

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SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Manufacturing employment decreased 24 thousand and is now 147 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83

Numbers 110

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 110

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

Contacts from most Districts indicated economic growth was modest during July and August. Manufacturing contacts in several Districts also noted that supply chain delays improved, and that they were better able to meet existing orders. One sector where supply did not become more available was single-family housing.

Manufacturing 119

Manufacturing Transportation Retail Sales 119

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. Manufacturing employment decreased 35 thousand jobs and is now 175 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 19 thousand jobs in October.

Retail 133

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 133

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 14, 2024

The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. For manufacturing, November Industrial Production, and the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released this week. The consensus is for a reading of 5.8,

Retail 105

Retail Manufacturing Sales Economics 105

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 28 thousand jobs and is now 200 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in November.

Retail 126

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

Fortune Financial

MARCH 7, 2024

The greatest and most immediate impact, however, was economic; researchers at the University of California, San Diego estimate that for every $1 put into building the interstate highway system, $1.80 was returned in greater economic activity. It reduced regional fragmentation as distances became shorter.

Retail 141

Retail Distribution Financial Advisor Manufacturing 141

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

Everyone is looking at the same set of numbers and somehow coming to opposite conclusions. Washington Post ) but see also One plausible explanation for this too-good-to-be-true economy : The most plausible explanation of all is that the pandemic and subsequent recovery were so unusual that the normal rules of economics don’t apply.

License 148

License Economy Numbers Communication 148

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 6 thousand jobs and is now 201 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in December.

Retail 120

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 120

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 14, 2023

For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, January 16th -- All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Retail 105

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 105

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 10, 2023

March’s employment report showed a continued moderation in job growth, but the number of hires was still solid. The ISM manufacturing and services surveys both fell, with manufacturing falling further into contraction and services nearing contraction. Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 5, 2024

Economic data last week showed the economy slowing more than expected, adding to worries about a potential recession. Thursday’s set of economic data saw initial jobless claims rise to their highest level in a year, alongside a weak manufacturing ISM number. Houston, We Have Turbulence The S&P 500 fell 2.0%

Marketing 141

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 141

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 12, 2022

The key economic reports this week are October Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. 8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November.

Retail 97

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 97

Calculated Risk

APRIL 15, 2023

The key reports this week are March Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. -- Monday, April 17th -- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. -- Tuesday, April 18th -- 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for March.

Manufacturing 102

Manufacturing Sales Banking Economics 102

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 7, 2022

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was slightly above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 11,000, combined. Manufacturing added 22 thousand jobs and is now 163 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. And the employment-population ratio was unchanged. million in September.

Education 98

Education Numbers Economics Manufacturing 98

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APRIL 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was close to expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 17,000, combined. Manufacturing lost 1 thousand jobs and is now 198 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 72 thousand jobs in March. million jobs.

Numbers 98

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 98

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 4, 2023

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was slightly below expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 49,000, combined. Manufacturing employment decreased 2 thousand jobs and is now 200 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 17 thousand jobs in July.

Numbers 98

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 98

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Currently, IP hit a peak in September and manufacturing in October. The current numbers by themselves do not indicate much of anything but they are one of the items the NBER will use in arrears to determine if a recession has started. The two main exceptions are 2001 and 2020 where IP was in a long slowdown before recession hit.

Manufacturing 130

Manufacturing Numbers Economics 130