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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months. What's driving many of the economic conditions today are higher interest rates resulting from the Fed's efforts to fight inflation. And even though U.S.

Valuation 215
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Sunday links: cultivating your unique gifts

Abnormal Returns

awealthofcommonsense.com) Chances are, you don't need a bespoke portfolio. econbrowser.com) Any economic slowdown is coming with consumers in pretty good shape. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Economic activity continues to shift toward these four Sunbelt cities. nytimes.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

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Sunday links: a nation of bad drivers

Abnormal Returns

microcapclub.com) No portfolio strategy is perfect. humbledollar.com) Companies Why Boeing ($BA) took its eye off manufacturing quality. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (wsj.com) Strategy The market's most important lessons have to be experienced. nytimes.com) Chipotle ($CMG) is on a roll.

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Wednesday links: an awesome product

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Ten things to know about building a diversified portfolio. morningstar.com) Real assets can be a portfolio drag during periods of quiescent inflation. bloomberg.com) Ukraine is trying to boost its own weapons manufacturing. etf.com) Don't let spot Bitcoin ETFs fool you about the nature of crypto.

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Nobody Knows Anything, FedWatch Edition

The Big Picture

Rather than accept the volatility of month-to-month economic datapoints — NFP, Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Inflation, etc. Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests.

Economics 363
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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

I ask students in my economics classes to inspect the cars’ undersides, and together we trace the gradual movement of toy car manufacturing: from England and the United States in the 1960s to Japan in the mid-1970s, from South Korea in the mid-1980s to China in the late 1990s and Vietnam after.

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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

The expectations were this would be temporary, as supply chains would untangle and manufacturers would come back online. The latest plot line was simply the animal spirits have been awoken and they have run amok and that’s how we have avoided an economic contraction. The following year similarly saw a substantial 28% rally.