Abnormal Returns

JULY 6, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) The housing market is in a very real way locked up. calculatedriskblog.com) The labor market is threading the needle. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Seven economics books worth checking out including "For a Dollar and a Dream: State Lotteries in Modern America" by Jonathan D.

Economics 239

Economics Startup Financial Advising Media 239

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

At a high level, we're currently seeing a 'tale of 2 economies': While the market for services has expanded steadily since the beginning of the year (with both employment and the price of services growing in kind), the U.S. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 8, 2024

thebasispoint.com) Why you can't just talk about 'bonds' as a single market. econbrowser.com) The Fed is always dealing with economic crosscurrents. tker.co) Why economic data is iffier: lower response rates. apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. Rates The yield curve inversion is over.

Marketing 279

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economics 279

The Big Picture

AUGUST 19, 2022

The link was to James Mackintosh’s column “ Five Not-Quite-Impossible Things the Market Believes.” But rational people can reasonably disagree on anything market-related — after all, someone has to be on the other side of your trade. As to what the market “knows:” Stop Anthropomorphizing Mr. Market.

Marketing 321

Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Economy 321

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

Markets Nick Maggiulli, "What will cause the next market decline? ofdollarsanddata.com) It's not news that the stock market goes up most years. news.crunchbase.com) Global Is China's stock market finally cheap enough for another look? I have no clue." wsj.com) Japan has a trucking problem.

Marketing 265

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 265

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 28, 2024

humbledollar.com) What happens when you stop focusing on the stock market. wapo.st) The economic schedule for the coming week. Strategy Stop obsessing about the Fed's next move. tker.co) Why the vast majority of investors should avoid alternatives. wsj.com) Bitcoin Will Charles Schwab ($SCHW) eventually launch its own spot Bitcoin ETF?

Marketing 278

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 278

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 4, 2023

calculatedriskblog.com) There is continued deceleration in the jobs market. (map.simonsarris.com) Economy The July NFP report showed a 187k jump in jobs and a 3.5% unemployment rate. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American economy is normalizing. carsongroup.com) The U.S. economy has reached a new, post-pandemic phase.

Economics 246

Economics Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 246

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

 At the Money: Is War Good for Markets? February 14, 2024) What does history tell us about how war impacts the stock market? Can these patterns inform us of future bull market behavior? A 500% move in the stock market. Explain your dad’s thinking about how war plus inflation equals a stock bull market.

Marketing 317

Marketing Marketing Government Numbers 317

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

abnormalreturns.com) It may take some time, but markets eventually work. (nytimes.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Personal finance links: an IOU to the IRS. abnormalreturns.com) There is no holy grail in investing. abnormalreturns.com) What you missed in our Tuesday linkest. abnormalreturns.com) Research links: simplistic thinking.

Economics 203

Economics Financial Advising Insurance Media 203

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 8, 2023

(papers.ssrn.com) Global Why global equity market correlations are on the rise. klementoninvesting.substack.com) There's no evidence that economic forecasters can actually forecast. papers.ssrn.com) Target date funds hold more in international stocks than the average investor.

Marketing 246

Marketing Marketing Medical Economics 246

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. Again, any market historian would tell you the data supports this position. I spend a lot of time debunking investment-related b t.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

At least if you do forecasts for market returns over the next decade (lol), you may see incredible similarities. In other words, if you were forecasting 10-year returns of 3% annually, you are also forecasting an economic shitstorm of rare and historic proportions. If you are a strategist at Goldman Sachs , then a lot.

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Economy 326

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

A quick note to answer this question: What happens after markets make a new all-time high (after a year w/o one)? Going back to 1954, markets are always higher one year later – the only exception was 2007. This is the 15th time markets have made ATH highs after 12 months. Check out the table above, via Warren Pies.

Economics 349

Economics Marketing Marketing Investments 349

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 3, 2024

The United States is the envy of the world in terms of financial markets and economic performance. Ruchir Sharma at The Financial Times outlines how this is impacting capital flows: Global investors are committing more capital to a single country than ever before in modern history.

Marketing 145

Marketing Marketing Economics Financial Market 145

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 13, 2024

Markets Stock market returns are rarely average. tker.co) Why you can't extrapolate market returns. awealthofcommonsense.com) Markets aren't perfectly efficient, but that doesn't mean you can effectively take advantage. rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Cities Detroit is experiencing an economic rebound.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Government Economics Media 279

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 20, 2023

With a clean and simple interface, it puts all of the key economic indicators the FOMC tracks — Real GDP Growth, Unemployment Rate, PCE Inflation, Core PCE Inflation, and the Federal Funds Rate — in one convenient location. Labor Markets : Indicators related to employment; 2. Gross Domestic Product : GDP and its components.

Economics 306

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 306

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 4, 2024

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity rose slightly in most Districts. Though growth in economic activity was generally small, expectations for growth rose moderately across most geographies and sectors. Labor Markets Employment levels were flat or up only slightly across Districts.

Economics 111

Economics Economy Sales Investments 111

The Big Picture

JUNE 20, 2024

In response to repeated inquiries from BofA clients, Savita looked at numerous indicators that collectively suggest markets are topping. The table above shows the major market peaks going back to 1990. But as prior history has taught us, all bull markets eventually come to an end. appeared first on The Big Picture.

Marketing 195

Marketing Marketing Valuation Media 195

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 15, 2023

Markets screamed higher yesterday after a benign CPI report showed a 0.0% It was a classic fear-driven error, a combination of bad market timing and poor impulse control. It was a classic fear-driven error, a combination of bad market timing and poor impulse control. Last, recognize that markets go up and down.

Investing 344

Investing Investments Portfolio Economics 344

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

Markets are nervous expecting another hike before years over before two cuts in 2024. When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else. .” They may be terrible economic forecasters but give them credit for not burying bad predictions like so many on Wall Street tend to do.

Economics 325

Economics Financial Market Marketing Marketing 325

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

Markets The S&P 500 returned 2.43% in August 2023. on.spdji.com) There are too many markets at all-time highs to count. wsj.com) Good luck trying to time the stock market using valuation metrics. awealthofcommonsense.com) Market statistics can gloss over the big picture. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Financial Advising 295

Financial Advising Valuation Economy Economics 295

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 25, 2024

wsj.com) Most market arguments are because of differing time frames. Vance's hometown of Middletown, OH is experiencing an economic turnaround. papers.ssrn.com) Is economic globalization really going in reverse? apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. politico.com) The U.S.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 278

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

Will second-quarter earnings (released this month) disappoint or has the market already moderated expectations? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much of this is priced into the stock market already? Will second quarter earnings (released this month) disappoint or has the market already moderated expectations?

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Abnormal Returns

MAY 12, 2024

Markets No news is good news for the stock market. tker.co) The stock market has gone nowhere the past 10 weeks. vox.com) Economy Some signs of economic caution. klementoninvesting.substack.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. allstarcharts.com) What Wall Street jargon really means.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Economy Economics Media 279

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 12, 2023

Markets U.S. allstarcharts.com) Strategy What it going to happen to all those assets in money market fund when yields eventually fall? fortunesandfrictions.com) ETFs Why it isn't surprising that ETFs are gaining market share. doesn't have legalized prediction markets. wealthmanagement.com) Why seasonality matters.

Financial Advising 285

Financial Advising Economics Economy Manufacturing 285

Abnormal Returns

JULY 14, 2024

Strategy The stock market has changed so much over the past 50 years. awealthofcommonsense.com) Seven reasons you may want to venture away from the market portfolio. investmentecosystem.com) Finance Bank OZK ($OZK) is uniquely exposed to the South Florida real estate market. Human behavior hasn't.

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Economics Media Government 262

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

Markets A lot of stock market indices are sitting at all-time highs. vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. ft.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. allstarcharts.com) It's not just the U.S. that is seeing fewer publicly traded companies.

License 290

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 290

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 9, 2024

theirrelevantinvestor.com) Markets Can we finally move past the Gamestock ($GME) era of markets? herbgreenberg.substack.com) Does anything matter any more in markets? wsj.com) Investing in ports has positive spillover economic effects. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Budgeting Economics Media 279

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 8, 2024

(caia.org) Looking for factor returns in old historical stock market data. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Using AI to better explain past financial market returns. nber.org) How to extract economic data from the Wall Street Journal. nber.org) How to extract economic data from the Wall Street Journal.

Economics 267

Economics Financial Market Marketing Marketing 267

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

(capitalspectator.com) Regime changes happen in markets. alphaarchitect.com) Hong Kong went from a standout on economic freedom to laggard. priceactionlab.com) Research Can machine learning help select outperforming mutual funds? alphaarchitect.com) The Achilles heel of momentum strategies is tail risk.

Economics 291

Economics Portfolio Marketing Marketing 291

Abnormal Returns

JULY 19, 2024

Markets How climate change could strand trillions in investments. wsj.com) Economics Q2 GDP is tracking around 2%. carsongroup.com) Political partisanship is working its way into real economic data. ft.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: harsh economic truths. om.co) Have we already passed peak AI hype?

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Media Economics Manufacturing 263

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

The TL:dr is the short term is too random, and so only serves as marketing for institutional trading firms. Where the exception comes from are people like ISI’s Ed Hyman, who always laid out multiple possibilities — consensus and the outliers in each direction — and what the market reactions might be to that.

Economy 288

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 288

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

Markets Asset class returns were pretty green in 2023 except for commodities. theatlantic.com) The DOE has successfully timed the oil market. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. on.spdji.com) Some of the best charts of 2023.

Financial Advising 285

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 285

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

Falling Real Estate Markets Several major markets have now reached the falling phase of the cycle, characterized by flat or declining prices, limited capital investment, and shrinking housing demand. Housing is Local (Until it Isn't) Slowing markets include Dallas, Jacksonville, and Raleigh-Durham. The rest are plateauing.

Sales 285

Sales Economics Consulting Economy 285

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

As we have been discussing since May of this year, there are increasing signs we have been groping for a bottom in the equity markets. Some are known and already priced in, more are ambiguous, not fully reflected in market prices, and some are random surprises that by definition markets have not accounted for. 50% chance ).

Economy 295

Economy Economics Valuation Marketing 295

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 6, 2024

investmentecosystem.com) Research Want to forecast stock market bubbles? returnstacked.com) A look at how to identify economic regimes. (wsj.com) Institutional investors How institutional investors want to consume content. institutionalinvestor.com) Can active managers rebuild their processes for a difficult future? mailchi.mp)

Retail 279

Retail Taxes Accounting Economics 279

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

Markets The China stock market rally is very broad. sherwood.news) China's stock market is on board with economic stimulus. axios.com) The China stock market rally has gotten U.S. sherwood.news) Strategy The time to prepare for a bear market is before it is on the horizon. ETF investor attention.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Financial Advice Economy Media 265