Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

Markets A lot of stock market indices are sitting at all-time highs. vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. nytimes.com) The number of Americans earning the minimum wage keeps shrinking. ft.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

License 290

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 290

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. If you are not in the labor force, you are not unemployed.

Manufacturing 327

Manufacturing Retirement Numbers Economics 327

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 10, 2022

Target 2 balances from the ECB, numbers and caption by Mish. The market disagrees and so do I. TARGET2 is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system owned and operated by the Eurosystem. The Target2 Lead Chart is courtesy of the ECB. It shows Target 2 creditor and debtor nations. trillion continue to mount in Germany.

Economics 218

Economics Banking Government Numbers 218

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

Markets Asset class returns were pretty green in 2023 except for commodities. theatlantic.com) The DOE has successfully timed the oil market. marginalrevolution.com) Global Home ownership is out of reach for an increasing number of Australians. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023.

Financial Advising 285

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 285

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

Will second-quarter earnings (released this month) disappoint or has the market already moderated expectations? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much of this is priced into the stock market already? Will second quarter earnings (released this month) disappoint or has the market already moderated expectations?

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 26, 2023

Markets Stock picking is difficult because it requires a number of different skills. papers.ssrn.com) An aging workforce need not reduce economic growth. And we have a frozen housing market. theatlantic.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. politico.com) These ten states have uninsured rates under 5%.

Financial Advising 282

Financial Advising Economics Insurance Media 282

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Consider : Questioning investors as to their risk tolerance does not typically result in an accurate description of their true tolerance for drawdowns and lower returns; instead, we get a number highly dependent upon the performance of equity markets over the prior three to six months. November 22, 2009). Black Friday #Fails.

Risk Tolerance 334

Risk Tolerance Budgeting Numbers Banking 334

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

(wapo.st) Why is Apple ($AAPL) publicly touting its Apple Card spending numbers? blog.johnwallstreet.com) Economy The labor market continues to soften. econbrowser.com) Economic vibes are improving. spyglass.org) Sports The PGA Tour just scored a big, non-Saudi, investment. abnormalreturns.com) Research links: an obsolete model.

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Media Economy Accounting 263

The Big Picture

JUNE 2, 2023

million people in the US labor market. Essentially, monthly Non-Farm Payrolls is the net difference between these two groups: The actual number is far smaller and less significant than gets played most publicly. The monthly number ( May 2023 = 339,000) is a tenth or so of the ~1.5% Each month, about 1.5% of the 159m total.

Numbers 312

Numbers Valuation Retirement Economics 312

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

Markets A five-step framework for reading market news. econbrowser.com) Global economic growth numbers don't tell us much. tker.co) By these measures, small cap stocks are cheap. morningstar.com) What happens historically after a Zweig Breadth Thrust? wsj.com) It's been a long time coming.

Financial Advising 274

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 274

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

Markets Small and mid-cap stocks have badly lagged large caps. theringer.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." wsj.com) Five insights from "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality" by Angust Deaton.

Assets 272

Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 272

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). See also : The Housing Market Correction (Wells Fargo, October 5, 2022). _. Previously : How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021).

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. November even saw increasing numbers of suppliers, factories and service providers offering discounts to help boost flagging sales.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

The Big Picture

MARCH 18, 2023

Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The A to Z of economics : Economic terms, from “absolute advantage” to “zero-sum game”, explained to you in plain English. ( The weekend is here! was responsible for two phenomenally destructive innovations.

Banking 304

Banking Economics Education Management 304

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 3, 2024

Markets A look back at Q1 2024 asset class returns. bonddad.blogspot.com) Part-time is not a negative for the economy if it isn't for economic reasons. bloomberg.com) How immigration is affecting the jobs numbers. novelinvestor.com) Growth and value performance flip-flopped in March 2024.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Economy Media Economics 264

Nerd's Eye View

AUGUST 12, 2022

As RIA firms’ challenges in attracting and retaining talent have continued, firms have needed to reduce their business development activities to stay within their existing staff's capacity (compounding the challenges of growing firm revenue during a bear market that has reduced most firms’ assets under management).

Financial Planner 245

Financial Planner Retirement Healthcare Numbers 245

Abnormal Returns

MAY 21, 2023

Markets Ten bad market takes including 'Recession is inevitable?' calculatedriskblog.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media A growing number of New York City office buildings are emptying out. ritholtz.com) 10 charts this week including the surge in Nvidia ($NVDA).

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Startup Taxes Financial Services 242

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 22, 2023

This continues to be one of the more confusing economic environments in history. Some economic indicators are screaming slowdown while others are giving an all-clear. Every other day the narrative switches between an imminent recession and a soft landing. Neither outcome would surprise me at this point.

Numbers 145

Numbers Economy Economics Marketing 145

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

(evidenceinvestor.com) Corporate finance The Big Three money managers have seemingly helped increase the number of female board directors. It does not matter if that market is going up or down." caia.org) We don't really know how much of the market is held by passive investors. ft.com) Beware the young CFO.

Economics 130

Economics Management Numbers Portfolio 130

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study by Cerulli has shown a sharp increase in the number of affluent investors willing to pay for advice, which on the one hand reflects the increasing financial complexity in peoples' lives (while they've also gotten (..)

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Fiduciary Duty CFP Accounting 246

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Strategy What happens after a 20% up year for the stock market? economist.com) Some 2023 books that stuck with Ezra Klein including Zeke Faux’s “Number Go Up.” ritholtz.com) Markets are pricing in rate cuts, but no recession. axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business. unemployment rate.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 265

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

Last, the Labor market remains very robust. I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them. Microsoft laid off 10% of its 221,000 workforce bringing headcount back to mid-2021 levels. At least, not yet.

Economics 325

Economics Numbers Planning Investing 325

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

In particular, they are driving prices higher in the rental market. OER is assembled in a way that seems to exacerbate the lag between what is happening in the real estate market and what the BLS models show. Otherwise, they are going to unnecessarily cause economic damage in their belated attempts to lower inflation.

Economics 312

Economics Retail Economy Banking 312

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

At the Money: How To Know When The Fed Will Cut with Jim Bianco (March 13, 2024) Markets have been waiting for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates for over a year. Over the past few years, it seems as if markets have been obsessed with Federal Reserve action. How significant are rate cuts or hikes to the typical market cycle?

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 4, 2023

Markets The stock market hates rising inflation. marketwatch.com) Strategy Owning an index means you will own the market's biggest winners. statnews.com) Economy Economic data doesn't move in straight lines. calculatedriskblog.com) An increasing number of home sellers are offering concessions.

Financial Advising 241

Financial Advising Startup Banking Economy 241

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 16, 2022

rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Strategy How market bottoms are made. ritholtz.com) Why you shouldn't make big changes to your portfolio based on economics. nytimes.com) Anti-ETFs are growing in number. stayathomemacro.substack.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. kyla.substack.com) Why the Fed should take abeat.

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Portfolio Valuation Economy 242

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Forecasts Another year where ignoring market forecasts paid off. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) The case for 'realistic optimism' when it comes to the markets. nytimes.com) Strategy The stock market was up big in 2023, but it wasn't easy. nytimes.com) Strategy The stock market was up big in 2023, but it wasn't easy.

Financial Advising 260

Financial Advising Media Taxes Economy 260

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 18, 2022

Markets You can safely ignore all the year-end stock market forecasts. wsj.com) Sam Ro, "The thing about certain risks is that the become less of a problem for markets the more market participants talk about them." pionline.com) The number of different ETF issuers in the U.S. by Brad DeLong.

Financial Advising 219

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 219

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 5, 2024

Economic data last week showed the economy slowing more than expected, adding to worries about a potential recession. Higher rates are clearly impacting the housing market and we aren’t seeing as much small business investment as we’d like. Houston, We Have Turbulence The S&P 500 fell 2.0% What do lower yields mean to investors?

Marketing 141

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 141

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 20, 2023

While it remains to be seen whether the measures will actually be enacted, proposed measures include raising income and capital gains tax rates, instituting wealth taxes, and reducing the state estate tax exemption, potentially creating future planning opportunities for advisors with clients in those states.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Financial Advice Fee Only Financial Planning 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

MSM uncritically repeated the false number. I spend far too much time debunking economic b t. To ensure we’re looking at the proper vintage data, we’ll use FRED’s sibling, ALFRED, which allows us to pick a point in time and view the then-real-time numbers. maybe just one more graf.

Government 356

Government Media Economics Food 356

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Economic indicators across consumption, income, industry and the labor market don’t point to a recession. October is known for extreme volatility, but it is also known for ending bear markets and corrections. Interestingly, many bear markets end later in the month, which could happen again. 19 on average.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

That you can tank up in 2024 for $50-75 is an economic miracle, but people still love to complain about gas prices. As of January 1 2024, about 70% of all mortgage holders had rates three full percentage points below market prices. For most of us who are not regularly crunching the numbers in spreadsheets, it may not feel that way.

Economics 321

Economics Budgeting Sales Media 321

Abnormal Returns

JULY 12, 2023

James Choi about how economic theory explains consumer behavior. nytimes.com) Investing Are older investors now too exposed to the stock market? genyplanning.com) An inheritance raises a number of questions, and opportunities. morningstar.com) Camerson Passmore and Benjamin Felix talk with Prof.

Risk Tolerance 246

Risk Tolerance Estate Planning Retirement Planning 246

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 1, 2024

SmartAsset launches an Advisor Marketing Platform to help advisors buying SmartAsset leads to automate the follow-up and nurture of those leads, from automated calls and text messaging to nurture emails, in an effort to lift lead quality and conversion rate.

Estate Planning 242

Estate Planning Financial Advisor Clients Startup 242

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. theatlantic.com) Economy Menzie Chinn, "Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet." econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 20, 2024

(amycastor.com) Companies It's hard to wrap your head around the numbers with Nvidia's ($NVDA) new chips. marginalrevolution.com) Finance Private equity is stuck between elevated valuations high interest rates and a moribund IPO market. spyglass.org) This is Apple's ($AAPL) brand promise.

Financial Advising 254

Financial Advising Startup Valuation Economy 254