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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

Yet, by taking a measured look at factors driving economic activity and influencing behavior, advisors can help clients face risks they can't control and (hopefully) position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they develop. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 244
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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

At a high level, we're currently seeing a 'tale of 2 economies': While the market for services has expanded steadily since the beginning of the year (with both employment and the price of services growing in kind), the U.S. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246
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4th Quarter 2023 Economic And Market Outlook: Labor Market, Inflation, And Geopolitics

Nerd's Eye View

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. The labor market, while still remarkably resilient, has also started to show signs of stress.

Economics 246
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The Problem Of High U.S. Equity Valuations And How Advisors Can Factor In Current Evaluations Risks

Nerd's Eye View

Financial advisors often discuss how futile it is to try and predict what will happen in the stock market, and yet the reality is that a core component of creating a financial plan involves making a prediction for how markets will behave, at least in the long run.

Valuation 246
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Monday links: bond market losses

Abnormal Returns

medium.com) Big tech companies are sitting on their own bond market losses. theinformation.com) Snowflake ($SNOW) is growing into its valuation. wsj.com) China is dramatically reducing the amount of economic statistics it publishes. economist.com) Economy This high yield bond indicator is signalling economic trouble ahead.

Marketing 246
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Sunday links: meaningless statistics

Abnormal Returns

Markets The S&P 500 returned 2.43% in August 2023. on.spdji.com) There are too many markets at all-time highs to count. wsj.com) Good luck trying to time the stock market using valuation metrics. awealthofcommonsense.com) Market statistics can gloss over the big picture. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

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Sunday links: when irrationality takes over

Abnormal Returns

Markets Market valuations aren't that helpful in the short term. bonddad.blogspot.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. tker.co) The U.S. yield curve has been inverted for a record amount of time. ft.com) Strategy Why you can ignore all the magazine cover commentary. ft.com) Industrial production is fading.