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Portfoliomanagement was a lot less evidence-based than it is today. As it turns out, there are ways you can use data to your advantage, even if you’re not a math wizard. We are looking historically at ideas that make economic sense, right? For most of the last century, investing was a lot more art than science.
My wife and I started adding to an HSA pretty much when they first came to exist but it has been a few years since it made economic sense being self-employed. Here I am talking not just portfoliomanagement but overall lifestyle, habits and choices and yes this does filter into my day job managing investment portfolios.
All of their portfoliomanagers not only are substantial investors in each of their funds, but they do a disclosure year that shows each manager by name and how much money they have invested in their own fund. A bachelor’s in economics from Northwestern and then an MBA from University of Chicago. Was that the plan?
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. Now I do fundamental side research portfoliomanagement, which I just, 00:08:20 [Speaker Changed] So, so you joined GMO, there’s 60 people, 30 years.
The topics covered are personal finance math, retirement problems, introduction to mutual funds, the concept of fund & NAV, equity schemes, debt funds, investing in bonds, index funds, rolling returns, Exchange-traded funds(ETF) and basics of macroeconomics.
I was always good at math, but I really, I just didn’t relate to things that were more esoteric bonds options. I worked in sort of a quasi portfoliomanagement role for like a single client account type business. And I, I think that I kind of triangulated on it. I have no family history. I had two stops before then.
But yes, I was given my own column and by that point, having seen all these star managers come and go, you know, I had become an index fund devotee, and in column after column I banged the drum for index funds to the point where my editors were asking me, Hey, could you write about something else? That’s exactly right.
A degree in mathematics from Oxford, a doctorate in mathematical epidemiology and economics from Cambridge. So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. He is portfoliomanager at Orbis Holdings.
But it was a tremendous experience because I had started off in bond trading, worked my way into portfoliomanagement and running the bond indexing team for a number of years, and then I got asked to take this responsibility, which was much broader. So a variety of risk meetings, a variety of economic meetings. RITHOLTZ: Right.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. So I, as a discretionary portfoliomanager, if you hand me cash, I can look at the market and say, you know what?
She was a partner and a portfoliomanager at Canyon Capital, a firm that runs currently about $25 billion. since the ‘80s regarding economic mobility, that there used to be a huge ability to move up, or at least be in a better situation than your parents were.
And I was a math nerd as a kid. I’m going to be skeptical about analyst adjusted earnings and look to free cash flow is a confirming, but, but I also wanna see, is it one of those cases where the analyst adjustments are economically realistic or are they excuses? And the value line has all these statistical patterns.
You began as a central bank portfoliomanager in Finland. And when I was studying in university economics, I did not really get the passion. So, that relationship actually already started when I was a portfoliomanager, right? Let’s start just by talking about your career. ILMANEN: Yes. RITHOLTZ: Right.
I was a fixed income portfoliomanager and trader, which is a ton of fun. PIMCO out on the West Coast, read the first thing I wrote in the Journal of PortfolioManagement. My mom was a math teacher so — RITHOLTZ: Okay. But it wasn’t like whatever skills they taught me in the PhD. RITHOLTZ: Meaning what?
We’ll get to where you work at JP Morgan, but economics bachelor’s from Columbia MBA from Harvard. So I decided to become an economics major and a psychology minor. So the intersection of psychology and economics became really interesting. And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting.
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Ed Hyman on Using Economic Data Opportunistically , is below. So you have all of this very pragmatic experience as opposed to getting a PhD in economics, which tends to be a little more abstract and academic. I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. There’s very few, I would argue probably no consistent predictors of, of any sort of economic or market cyclicality. And I just caught the bug.
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. I know you like to discuss there are different phases of the, of the, both the market and the economic cycle.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
The economic dislocation, the health risks, just the mayhem that took place, but from the perspective of a number of corporate CEOs, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital, the hedge fund that had a couple of amazing trades based on this. HOFFMAN: So obviously, I’ve — you know, economically minded from the jump.
That’s why the markets are much more of a mind game than a math game. And that’s why markets will always be exceedingly hard, even when the math seems easy or the future seems certain. These experts made a living “analyzing” and pontificating on political and economic developments. And lots of surprises.
New York Times Magazine ) • Wall Street Math Wizards Are Decoding Private-Market Returns : A small band of quants is shining a light into the shadowy world of unlisted assets. Washington Post ) but see Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 : The world is complex, and it is rarely (if ever) one causal factor driving economic events.
Matt Eagan has spent his entire career in fixed income from credit analyst to portfoliomanager. Now he’s the head of the discretion team at Loomis Sales, which manages well over $335 billion in client assets. I started out math and, and physics, and in high school I was a rock star in math and physics.
Morgan Stanley’s Chief Economic Strategist blew her call , too. The most bullish call in Sam Ro’s compilation was 5,500, up nearly 20 percent, by Capital Economics. The consensus on Wall Street was that interest rates had peaked for the economic cycle. That’s not bad, still well short of actual returns.
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