The Big Picture

MARCH 18, 2025

The challenge in writing How NOT to Invest was organizing a large number of ideas, many of which were only loosely connected, into something coherent, understandable, and, most importantly, readable. Bad Numbers : 4. It is March 18th! Publication day is finally here! Why are we constantly prodded to take action now!

Investments 318

Investments Investing Math Media 318

Calculated Risk

APRIL 16, 2025

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40, up from 39 last month.

Sales 277

Sales Numbers Economics Marketing 277

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.

Clients 270

Clients Investments Investing Numbers 270

Calculated Risk

APRIL 15, 2025

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. At 1:30 PM, Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Ill. At 10:00 AM, The April NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 37, down from 29.

Retail 162

Retail Sales Economics Numbers 162

Abnormal Returns

JULY 6, 2023

ritholtz.com) 30-year mortgage rates are now well over 7.0% (cnbc.com) Global There is a boom in the number of space-related startups in India. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Seven economics books worth checking out including "For a Dollar and a Dream: State Lotteries in Modern America" by Jonathan D.

Economics 239

Economics Startup Financial Advising Media 239

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

According to the latest numbers from the U.S. And while the mortgage rate and economic outlook is full of questions, home prices are likely to maintain their leveled path until early next year when buyers return to the housing market.” Besides the uncertainty regarding the U.S. economy may be dampening demand and price appreciation.

Economy 254

Economy Numbers Economics Marketing 254

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million from 4.48

Numbers 147

Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.044 million above pre-pandemic levels. I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

The Big Picture

MARCH 24, 2025

The more appropriate number — Gov’t Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment — is $4.9893T ($4.9893/$29.1838 = 17.1%). ” “ Transfer Payments ,” for the uninitiated, include such things as Social Security benefits. Both the Wall St. Both the Wall St. Pay attention.

Government 310

Government Investments Investing Economy 310

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2022

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 28,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons increased by 303,000 to 3.9

Numbers 364

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 364

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Businesses are also feeling the pinch from higher interest rates, as November saw a rapid increase in the number of Chapter 11 commercial bankruptcies.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2025

from a year ago The number of homes actively for sale remains significantly higher than last year, continuing a 75-week streak of annual gains. In particular, recent economic uncertainty and concerns around job security could keep buyers on the sidelines, potentially applying downward pressure on prices. New listings were up 12.8%

Numbers 147

Numbers Economics Sales Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 8, 2025

This was before the recent surge in economic uncertainty and stock market volatility that might impact existing home sales. Important: There were the same number of working days in March 2025 (21) as in March 2024 (21). This was an increase from the average rate for homes that closed in February.

Marketing 162

Marketing Marketing Sales Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 29,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 3.7 million in October.

Retail 354

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 354

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 28,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9 in the previous month.

Retail 363

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 71,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 With revisions: The 4.81

Numbers 363

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in April. million from 4.31

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in May.

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2023

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 149,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9 in the previous month.

Numbers 360

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 360

Calculated Risk

MARCH 15, 2025

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with updated economic projections. 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for March.

Retail 191

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 191

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 million in July. million from 4.22

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons increased by 452,000 to 4.2

Numbers 315

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 315

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

(podcasts.apple.com) Jim Pethokoukis talks the business of space with Matt Weinzierl, co-author of "Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontier." fasterplease.substack.com) Policy Stephen Dubner talks tax myths with Jessica Riedl, a senior fellow in budget, tax, and economic policy at the Manhattan Institute.

Budgeting 144

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 144

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was about unchanged at 3.7

Retail 328

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 328

The Big Picture

JUNE 13, 2024

I wrote: It appears to me that the Journal got that number from BLS. Its numbers are fake. And second, always recall what Joan Robinson taught us so long ago: “The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.”

Food 306

Food Numbers Economics Portfolio 306

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 YoY in September.

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little in March. million from 4.36

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

Business contacts in a number of Districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs. Participants noted that policy decisions were not on a preset course and were conditional on the evolution of the economy, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks.

Economy 147

Economy Economics Numbers Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2023

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 34,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 in the previous month.

Numbers 316

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 316

Calculated Risk

APRIL 9, 2025

An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. The Philadelphia Feds U.S. index increased 0.8 percent in February.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Banking Numbers Economics 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2025

An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. The Philadelphia Feds U.S. index increased 0.6 percent in January.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Banking Numbers Economics 162

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million from 4.22

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million from 4.00 million from 4.00

Numbers 311

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 311

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million from 4.07 million from 4.07

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8%

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277