Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. nytimes.com) The number of Americans earning the minimum wage keeps shrinking. ft.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (wsj.com) As small towns empty out, it gets more difficult to maintain services.

License 290

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 290

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 14, 2024

washingtonpost.com) Measuring economic inequality is harder than it looks. washingtonpost.com) The number of American centenarians is set to quadruple. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. vox.com) Threats of violence against elected officials and government officials are on the rise.

Financial Advising 290

Financial Advising Engineering Food Economics 290

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. If you are not in the labor force, you are not unemployed.

Manufacturing 327

Manufacturing Retirement Numbers Economics 327

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

To prove their point, a number of friendly commentators, academics, and hired guns all wrote endless white papers, Op-Eds and commentaries. But they made one super-sized mistake: they cheated with the numbers. Its numbers are fake (June 12, 2024) Can Stanford tell the difference between scientific fact and fiction?

Food 260

Food Math Numbers Economics 260

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

(marginalrevolution.com) Global Home ownership is out of reach for an increasing number of Australians. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. bbc.com) Belarus is complicit in the abduction of Ukrainian children. npr.org) Human population may soon peak.

Financial Advising 285

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 285

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 22, 2023

This continues to be one of the more confusing economic environments in history. Some economic indicators are screaming slowdown while others are giving an all-clear. Every other day the narrative switches between an imminent recession and a soft landing. Neither outcome would surprise me at this point.

Numbers 145

Numbers Economy Economics Marketing 145

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 26, 2023

Markets Stock picking is difficult because it requires a number of different skills. papers.ssrn.com) An aging workforce need not reduce economic growth. theatlantic.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. humbledollar.com) Why it's hard for outsiders to know what's going on inside a company.

Financial Advising 282

Financial Advising Economics Insurance Media 282

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

theringer.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." wsj.com) Five insights from "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality" by Angust Deaton. calculatedriskblog.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Assets 272

Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 272

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

wapo.st) Why is Apple ($AAPL) publicly touting its Apple Card spending numbers? econbrowser.com) Economic vibes are improving. (vox.com) Elon Musk and Tesla ($TSLA) have a pay problem as a Delaware judge strikes down an earlier agreement. theverge.com) Ozempic accounted for 41% of Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) total sales in 2023.

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Media Economy Accounting 263

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). Traditional economic consensus used to be inflation occurred when too many dollars chased too few goods. Economic Policy Institute, April 21, 2022). That was June; we now have a lot more data.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

The Big Picture

MARCH 18, 2023

Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The A to Z of economics : Economic terms, from “absolute advantage” to “zero-sum game”, explained to you in plain English. ( The weekend is here! was responsible for two phenomenally destructive innovations.

Banking 304

Banking Economics Education Management 304

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? But there is a tomorrow and my expectations are that if the Fed overtightens (as they appear on track to do) then the next 12 months will be less economically robust than the prior 12. Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4?

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

The Big Picture

JANUARY 4, 2023

The Philly Fed map is based on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data for the states; the St Louis Fed builds on that, creating an ongoing chart that shows the relationship between the state data and recessions: Number of States with Negative Growth (State Coincident Indexes). By Kevin L. Kliesen , Cassandra Marks.

Numbers 290

Numbers Banking Economics 290

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Consider : Questioning investors as to their risk tolerance does not typically result in an accurate description of their true tolerance for drawdowns and lower returns; instead, we get a number highly dependent upon the performance of equity markets over the prior three to six months. November 22, 2009). Black Friday #Fails.

Risk Tolerance 334

Risk Tolerance Budgeting Numbers Banking 334

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

We currently see none of the pre-recession warnings that are typical before economic contractions. Instead of most states showing expansion, before recessions, that will drop to 45, 40, then 35 before a recession begins; eventually, the number of expanding states then fall to 10, 5, or 0.

Economy 304

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 304

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 3, 2024

bonddad.blogspot.com) Part-time is not a negative for the economy if it isn't for economic reasons. bloomberg.com) How immigration is affecting the jobs numbers. (theringer.com) Economy How well does consumer sentiment correlate with the real economy? wsj.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Personal finance links: making bad decisions.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Economy Media Economics 264

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Rather than accept the volatility of month-to-month economic datapoints — NFP, Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Inflation, etc. Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests.

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. November even saw increasing numbers of suppliers, factories and service providers offering discounts to help boost flagging sales.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

MSM uncritically repeated the false number. I spend far too much time debunking economic b t. To ensure we’re looking at the proper vintage data, we’ll use FRED’s sibling, ALFRED, which allows us to pick a point in time and view the then-real-time numbers. maybe just one more graf. Shame on all.]

Government 356

Government Media Economics Numbers 356

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

econbrowser.com) Global economic growth numbers don't tell us much. (wsj.com) It's been a long time coming. abnormalreturns.com) Economy The quits rate is falling from historic highs. wsj.com) How Q4 GDP is shaping up. bloomberg.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Adviser links: a positive experience.

Financial Advising 274

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 274

Nerd's Eye View

AUGUST 12, 2022

From there, we have several articles on Mergers & Acquisition (M&A) trends: M&A activity so far in 2022 is set to exceed 2021’s record pace despite economic headwinds, meaning there could simply be a ‘new normal’ of higher activity regardless of the economic environment.

Financial Planner 244

Financial Planner Retirement Healthcare Numbers 244

The Big Picture

JUNE 2, 2023

Essentially, monthly Non-Farm Payrolls is the net difference between these two groups: The actual number is far smaller and less significant than gets played most publicly. The monthly number ( May 2023 = 339,000) is a tenth or so of the ~1.5% of the 159m total. Is that multi-month trend rising or falling?

Numbers 312

Numbers Valuation Retirement Economics 312

Abnormal Returns

MAY 21, 2023

calculatedriskblog.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media A growing number of New York City office buildings are emptying out. finance.yahoo.com) Why a sizable number of native Hawaiians have moved to Las Vegas. abnormalreturns.com) What you missed in our Saturday linkfest.

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Startup Taxes Financial Services 242

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them. The present era of interest rate normalization is not remotely comparable to those eras. At least, not yet.

Economics 325

Economics Numbers Planning Investing 325

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 20, 2023

While it remains to be seen whether the measures will actually be enacted, proposed measures include raising income and capital gains tax rates, instituting wealth taxes, and reducing the state estate tax exemption, potentially creating future planning opportunities for advisors with clients in those states.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Financial Advice Fee Only Financial Planning 246

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 16, 2022

ritholtz.com) Why you shouldn't make big changes to your portfolio based on economics. nytimes.com) Anti-ETFs are growing in number. stayathomemacro.substack.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (marketwatch.com) Why investors should pay more attention the 40 in a 60/40 portfolio.

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Portfolio Valuation Economy 242

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study by Cerulli has shown a sharp increase in the number of affluent investors willing to pay for advice, which on the one hand reflects the increasing financial complexity in peoples' lives (while they've also gotten (..)

Financial Planner 245

Financial Planner Fiduciary Duty CFP Accounting 245

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

economist.com) Some 2023 books that stuck with Ezra Klein including Zeke Faux’s “Number Go Up.” axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business. (theatlantic.com) The best books of 2023 including "The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism" by Tim Alberta. unemployment rate.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 265

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. It’s just off the peak, but still extremely high by any measure.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model. Otherwise, they are going to unnecessarily cause economic damage in their belated attempts to lower inflation. Powell & Co.’s

Economics 312

Economics Retail Economy Banking 312

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. theatlantic.com) Economy Menzie Chinn, "Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet." econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 4, 2023

statnews.com) Economy Economic data doesn't move in straight lines. calculatedriskblog.com) An increasing number of home sellers are offering concessions. washingtonpost.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (businessinsider.com) The Sacklers are going to get away with it.

Financial Advising 241

Financial Advising Startup Banking Economy 241

Abnormal Returns

JULY 12, 2023

James Choi about how economic theory explains consumer behavior. genyplanning.com) An inheritance raises a number of questions, and opportunities. Podcasts Jeff Ptak and Christine Benz talk with William Bernstein about the update version of his book "The Four Pillars of Investing." etftrends.com) Peter Lazaroff on whether U.S.

Risk Tolerance 246

Risk Tolerance Estate Planning Retirement Planning 246

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 18, 2022

pionline.com) The number of different ETF issuers in the U.S. etf.com) Books The five best economic history books of 2022 including "Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century". kyla.substack.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. has more than doubled in the past five years.

Financial Advising 219

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 219

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

Source: FRED Wealth disparities get ever more lopsided the higher up the economic strata you climb; there is more disparity with the top 1% than the top 10%, but the biggest spreads are at the top 0.1% (and above). Consider the chart at top, created by Invictus via FRED.

Distribution 306

Distribution Assets Economics Numbers 306