Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 71,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 With revisions: The 4.81

Numbers 363

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in April. million from 4.31

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in May.

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little in March. million from 4.36

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2023

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 149,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9 in the previous month.

Numbers 360

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 360

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 million in July. million from 4.22

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons increased by 452,000 to 4.2

Numbers 315

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 315

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was about unchanged at 3.7

Retail 328

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 328

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 YoY in September.

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

The Big Picture

JUNE 13, 2024

I wrote: It appears to me that the Journal got that number from BLS. Its numbers are fake. And second, always recall what Joan Robinson taught us so long ago: “The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.”

Food 305

Food Numbers Economics Portfolio 305

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2025

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.9%

Numbers 278

Numbers Economics 278

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2023

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 34,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 in the previous month.

Numbers 316

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 316

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million from 4.22

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million from 4.00 million from 4.00

Numbers 311

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 311

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Manufacturing decreased slightly on net, and a number of Districts said manufacturers were stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. Vehicle sales grew modestly.

Economics 162

Economics Manufacturing Nonprofit Transportation 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2025

A couple of participants judged that positive sentiment in financial markets and momentum in economic activity could continue to put upward pressure on inflation. All participants judged that uncertainty about the scope, timing, and economic effects of potential changes in policies affecting foreign trade and immigration was elevated.

Economics 273

Economics Accounting Financial Market Numbers 273

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million from 4.07 million from 4.07

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8%

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 YoY in December.

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 10, 2022

Target 2 balances from the ECB, numbers and caption by Mish. TARGET2 is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system owned and operated by the Eurosystem. The Target2 Lead Chart is courtesy of the ECB. It shows Target 2 creditor and debtor nations. Tatget2 is one of the fundamental flaws of the Eurozone.

Economics 218

Economics Banking Government Numbers 218

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 6, 2024

blogs.cfainstitute.org) How the number of firms in an industry affects idiosyncratic volatility. returnstacked.com) A look at how to identify economic regimes. (alphaarchitect.com) Historically small and large caps have reacted to interest rates the same way. papers.ssrn.com) A review of the empirical research on gold. mailchi.mp)

Retail 278

Retail Taxes Accounting Numbers 278

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). My guess is multi-family starts will decline in 2023 as rents soften and as the record number of housing units under construction are completed. I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. nytimes.com) The number of Americans earning the minimum wage keeps shrinking. ft.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (wsj.com) As small towns empty out, it gets more difficult to maintain services.

License 289

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 289

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. If you are not in the labor force, you are not unemployed.

Manufacturing 327

Manufacturing Retirement Numbers Economics 327

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 7, 2022

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was slightly above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 11,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 306,000 to 3.8

Education 246

Education Numbers Economics Manufacturing 246

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

To prove their point, a number of friendly commentators, academics, and hired guns all wrote endless white papers, Op-Eds and commentaries. But they made one super-sized mistake: they cheated with the numbers. Its numbers are fake (June 12, 2024) Can Stanford tell the difference between scientific fact and fiction?

Food 306

Food Math Numbers Economics 306

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was close to expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 17,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was essentially unchanged at 4.1

Numbers 246

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 4, 2023

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was slightly below expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 49,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.0 million from 4.19

Numbers 246

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 246

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 14, 2024

washingtonpost.com) Measuring economic inequality is harder than it looks. washingtonpost.com) The number of American centenarians is set to quadruple. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. vox.com) Threats of violence against elected officials and government officials are on the rise.

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Engineering Food Economics 289

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 26, 2023

Markets Stock picking is difficult because it requires a number of different skills. papers.ssrn.com) An aging workforce need not reduce economic growth. theatlantic.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. humbledollar.com) Why it's hard for outsiders to know what's going on inside a company.

Financial Advising 281

Financial Advising Economics Insurance Media 281

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.

Clients 323

Clients Economics Numbers Investing 323

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

The institutional component was varied, experiencing growth in recreational and education projects, countered by a decline in the number of healthcare and public planning projects. Commercial planning was bolstered by a solid increase in office and hotel projects.

Healthcare 313

Healthcare Education Planning Economics 313

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, however April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million, changed little in June. million from 4.42

Numbers 211

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 211

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

theringer.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." wsj.com) Five insights from "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality" by Angust Deaton. calculatedriskblog.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Assets 271

Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 271