Abnormal Returns

JULY 6, 2023

ritholtz.com) 30-year mortgage rates are now well over 7.0% (cnbc.com) Global There is a boom in the number of space-related startups in India. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Seven economics books worth checking out including "For a Dollar and a Dream: State Lotteries in Modern America" by Jonathan D.

Economics 239

Economics Startup Financial Advising Media 239

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

According to the latest numbers from the U.S. And while the mortgage rate and economic outlook is full of questions, home prices are likely to maintain their leveled path until early next year when buyers return to the housing market.” Besides the uncertainty regarding the U.S. economy may be dampening demand and price appreciation.

Economy 254

Economy Numbers Economics Marketing 254

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

(podcasts.apple.com) Jim Pethokoukis talks the business of space with Matt Weinzierl, co-author of "Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontier." fasterplease.substack.com) Policy Stephen Dubner talks tax myths with Jessica Riedl, a senior fellow in budget, tax, and economic policy at the Manhattan Institute.

Budgeting 147

Budgeting Taxes Economy Economics 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.044 million above pre-pandemic levels. I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2022

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 28,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons increased by 303,000 to 3.9

Numbers 364

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 364

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Businesses are also feeling the pinch from higher interest rates, as November saw a rapid increase in the number of Chapter 11 commercial bankruptcies.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

Business contacts in a number of Districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs. Participants noted that policy decisions were not on a preset course and were conditional on the evolution of the economy, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks.

Economy 147

Economy Economics Numbers Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 29,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 3.7 million in October.

Retail 354

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 354

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 28,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9 in the previous month.

Retail 363

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 71,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 With revisions: The 4.81

Numbers 363

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in April. million from 4.31

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in May.

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little in March. million from 4.36

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2023

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 149,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9 in the previous month.

Numbers 360

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 360

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 million in July. million from 4.22

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons increased by 452,000 to 4.2

Numbers 315

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 315

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2025

market is overvalued, and if the alternative investment industry is one of the biggest grifts in economic history. They unpack why diversification is both boring and sexy, whether the U.S. This is the first podcast where i am discussing the book.

Investing 147

Investing Investments Wealth Management Economics 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was about unchanged at 3.7

Retail 328

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 328

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 YoY in September.

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

The Big Picture

JUNE 13, 2024

I wrote: It appears to me that the Journal got that number from BLS. Its numbers are fake. And second, always recall what Joan Robinson taught us so long ago: “The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.”

Food 305

Food Numbers Economics Portfolio 305

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2023

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 34,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 in the previous month.

Numbers 316

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 316

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million from 4.22

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million from 4.00 million from 4.00

Numbers 311

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 311

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million from 4.07 million from 4.07

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8%

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.47% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.47% as of October 31, 2024. Notwithstanding the storms, some borrowers may be experiencing other economic distress.

Portfolio 147

Portfolio Planning Economics Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 YoY in December.

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 10, 2022

Target 2 balances from the ECB, numbers and caption by Mish. TARGET2 is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system owned and operated by the Eurosystem. The Target2 Lead Chart is courtesy of the ECB. It shows Target 2 creditor and debtor nations. Tatget2 is one of the fundamental flaws of the Eurozone.

Economics 218

Economics Banking Government Numbers 218

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 6, 2024

blogs.cfainstitute.org) How the number of firms in an industry affects idiosyncratic volatility. returnstacked.com) A look at how to identify economic regimes. (alphaarchitect.com) Historically small and large caps have reacted to interest rates the same way. papers.ssrn.com) A review of the empirical research on gold. mailchi.mp)

Retail 278

Retail Taxes Accounting Economics 278

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). My guess is multi-family starts will decline in 2023 as rents soften and as the record number of housing units under construction are completed. I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2024

heathercoxrichardson.substack.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers showed a 3.6% calculatedriskblog.com) Claudia Sahm, "We look to Fed officials as skilled in economic forecasting and monetary policy, but theres no reason to think they are individually good at forecasting fiscal policy." rise in national home prices.

Media 173

Media Economy Economics Numbers 173

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. nytimes.com) The number of Americans earning the minimum wage keeps shrinking. ft.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (wsj.com) As small towns empty out, it gets more difficult to maintain services.

License 289

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 289

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. If you are not in the labor force, you are not unemployed.

Manufacturing 327

Manufacturing Retirement Numbers Economics 327

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 7, 2022

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was slightly above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 11,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 306,000 to 3.8

Education 246

Education Numbers Economics Manufacturing 246