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Let’s delve into a case in point of Coase’s theorem: If you wanted to peddle the narrative that government spending is out of control, you might present a chart like the one above, which is an exact replica of a chart that appeared recently in a piece of research from a major Wall St. investment firm. Both the Wall St.
The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Businesses are also feeling the pinch from higher interest rates, as November saw a rapid increase in the number of Chapter 11 commercial bankruptcies.
Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.
The present era of interest rate normalization is not remotely comparable to those eras. I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them. Even that implosion sent unemployment 6.3%, nearly double current levels. Put away your GFC-based PTSD. At least, not yet.
Consider : Questioning investors as to their risk tolerance does not typically result in an accurate description of their true tolerance for drawdowns and lower returns; instead, we get a number highly dependent upon the performance of equity markets over the prior three to six months. November 22, 2009). Black Friday #Fails.
Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. In fact, it felt horrible.
Also in industry news this week: Changes to CFP Board’s procedural rules went into effect September 1 and are intended to make the disciplinary process more efficient for respondents as well as CFP Board staff, and to expand the CFP Board’s ability to pursue more complaints against CFP professionals A NASAA model rule follows in the footsteps (..)
Also in industry news this week: A proposed Department of Labor rule would limit the type of workers who could be considered independent contractors, which could present a challenge for the independent broker-dealer model. Fidelity has introduced a direct indexing platform for advisors, joining an increasingly competitive space.
Most notable is the fact that industry associations are not the drivers of advisor conferences that they once were; while a decade ago, 75%+ of this "Best Conferences" list consisted of various events run by industry associations, now it numbers less than 25%.
Economic Update: Federal Reserve: Held rates steady at 4.25%4.50% Cited rising uncertainty around the economic outlook due to tariffs and slowing growth. Retail Sales (February): Headline number: rose 0.2% (below expectations of up 0.7%). Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated.
in November "In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen in November, resembling the sales activity seen during the COVID-19 economic lockdowns in 2020, " said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun." Existing-home sales chart courtesy of Trading Economics. We have never seen such numbers outside a recession.
Pound’s Swoon Echoes Declines in British Power, Past and Present : The Bank of England had to step in Wednesday after markets deemed a new government economic plan unwise, but the pound has been on a longer slide. ( The number is so big it’s ‘unimaginable.’ New York Times ). Scientific American ). Wall Street Journal ). •
It’s rooted in the idea that investors and businesses and economic cycles have regular patterns. And then I used to do those numbers by hand using the Barron’s MarketLab pages and, you know, underlining stuff and using an anti machine and all that by hand work, which was Educational. Pretty good numbers. Guess what?
As well as IBM and Maersk, the project had support from a number of carriers, customs organisations, banks and transport providers to create an information ecosystem. Problems of Blockchain Technology Figure 5 presents some drawbacks of the new digital technology. Furthermore, blockchain is presently energy intensive (Jovi?
economy appears to be in the late stage of expansion, with strong economic activity but labor and supply chains remain constrained. in November and a wide gap between the number of job openings and unemployed persons seeking work, roughly two-to-one, according to the most recent data release. Responding to recession risks.
Estates Estate Planning in this Economic Climate Schedule a Complimentary Financial Review CLICK HERE TO SCHEDULE. Between inflation, increasing interest rates, federal changes to monetary policies, and global conflict, many factors are putting a strain on the current economic situation. Create a Trust . Work with the Professionals .
Now, this wonderful section in this little bitty book that I’ve just finished, wonderful section on behavioral economics, terrific book by Daniel Kahneman, thinking Fast, thinking Slow. 00:27:54 [Speaker Changed] Let’s put some, some numbers, some mean on that bone. 00:46:08 So it does have an economic value.
Weekly Market Insights: Bond Yields Rise; Government Shutdown Looms Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Rising bond yields and government shutdown fears left stocks in mostly negative territory for the week. However, beneath the headline number, consumer spending was cut to a 0.8 Answer: She bought house numbers.
In 2022, that number dropped 15 percentage points to 48%. That number is actually lower than last year, which may indicate that investors are getting used to living with volatile markets. Economic woes weigh on Americans. That number is 17 percentage points higher than it was last year. View the infographic.
Weekly Market Insights: Stocks Retreat On Cautious Earnings Reports Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Amid a busy week of corporate earnings reports, stocks slumped on cautious earnings guidance, fears of higher interest rates, and growing anxiety over the increasing amount of Treasury bonds and notes coming to market.
Weekly Market Insights: September Stocks Open In Positive Territory Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Falling bond yields–spurred by weak economic data–helped lift stocks to weekly gains. A downward revision of Q2 economic growth and fresh signs of a cooling labor market reversed the recent rise in bond yield.
And since that happened, I don’t know, about four or five years ago, the fund has been putting up great numbers, outperforming doing really, really well. I just figured if I do well, I would be able to be presented with, with good options. And at that point, I decided what I really wanted to do was be a PhD in economics.
Top economists, Federal Reserve governors and Wall Street strategists – many with PhDs and decades economics experience and education – didn’t see this coming. At the end of 2020, the energy sector had fallen to less than a 2% weight in the S&P 500 , as investors fled the sector for a number of reasons. 10 Year Treasury around 1.5%
Whether this will be the peak rate (or near the peak rate) will depend on the direction of economic data, especially as it relates to inflation and employment. While the Federal Reserve is sucking a lot of wind out of the present news outlet airwaves, there are other factors contributing to the latest stock market upswing.
However, shifting economic conditions, a potential rate-cut cycle, and valuation opportunities have created a renewed focus on small and mid-cap stocks, particularly in financials and energy. This bracket focuses on who benefits most when the Russia-Ukraine war ends and economic rebuilding begins.
While these exciting new developments garner a lot of attention, there are a number of other secular growth stories that, for investors, are equally worthy of attention. per annum with growth every single year regardless of economic circumstances.
The subject matter at the time was focused on investment and economic updates. Developing topics, engaging speakers, and creating presentation content are all time-consuming and require careful advanced planning. When the pandemic hit, we continued to offer these events, but they became quarterly webinars.
Stressors between health and wealth When examining the connections between financial and personal wellness, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 presents a perfect example of the different ways – physically, mentally, and financially – that people were affected by the virus. 4 Further, the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. populations segments.
You might also enjoy “ Investment commentary numbers: How to get them right.” The conference was the first DEI-focused event I’ve attended to feature an Indigenous presenter, Geordie Hungerford, CFA, CEO of the First Nations Financial Management Board, who spoke on “Reshaping the Inclusion of Indigenous Communities in Investment.”
Weekly Market Insights: Market Retreats On Inflation, Economic Reports Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Stocks fell last week as investors reacted to disappointing inflation updates and other economic reports that fell short of estimates. 4 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Leading Indicators.
I always look at housing as a long term asset; there have been various cycles where people were thinking of it as a stock and it’s just not that liquid so you know you buy it you hold it the average person you know the numbers are kind of ranging the average person stays in a home 7 to 10 years on average.
Weekly Market Insights: Stocks Hit New Highs On AI’s Promise Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Stocks vaulted to new heights last week on the back of an artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor company, marking investors’ belief that AI has the potential to transform the U.S. Two-year Treasury Note Auction.
Weekly Market Insights: Stocks End Summer With Gloomy News Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Rising bond yields and fears of a government shutdown hammered stocks last week, with technology shares bearing the brunt of the retreat. In their economic projections, 12 of 19 Fed officials expect to raise rates once more this year.
Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Stocks ended mixed last week amid the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East and higher-than-expected inflation data. PPI, CPI Updates The disinflationary trend appears to be stalling if the inflation numbers are any indication. 5 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Retail Sales.
Since 1995, there are four rather distinct periods during which forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index declined, tied to a specific event and/or economic downturn. Below, we describe each period, and present the magnitude of that drop in earnings expectations. But by what duration? How Did The Index Perform?
Strong earnings and beating expectations: positive surprises in the number of companies and the magnitude of earnings, well above their ten-year average. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate. Ready to Grow Your Wealth?
Strong earnings and beating expectations: positive surprises in the number of companies and the magnitude of earnings, well above their ten-year average. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate. Ready to Grow Your Wealth?
Weekly Market Insights: Short Week Strong For Stocks Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Investor enthusiasm for stocks remained strong last week, buoyed by declining bond yields in a holiday-abbreviated trading week. This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: New Home Sales. Tuesday: Consumer Confidence. Jobless Claims.
Core CPI is an attempt to strip out the most variable drivers of inflation (namely food and energy) from the base (or “headline”) CPI number, but the costs of food and energy can infiltrate into core CPI items such as apparel and household goods. Let’s all hope that the inflation we are experiencing won’t be so sticky after all. .
The economic backdrop to these losses, however, stands out. Comparing present day data with data from 2000 through 2019, we clearly see strength in the present. On a broad level, initial jobless claims are presently the lowest they have been when compared to the twenty years prior to the pandemic. labor market.
Economic Strength The strength of the U.S. 5 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; February 8, 2024 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. ROC 5 = the rate of change in the index for the previous 5 trading days.
Weekly Market Insights: Fed Talk Boosts Stocks Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Stocks posted their best week of the year, sparked by news that the dovish Fed decided to keep rates steady and signaled three rate cuts were still possible this year. 4,5 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: New Home Sales.
Weekly Market Insights: Second Week Of Stock Retreat Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Stocks fell for the second straight week on inflation concerns despite a report on consumer prices that was initially well received by investors. 5 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Housing Market Index. Housing Starts and Permits.
Economic Updates: Stock market concerns around comments from the Federal Reserve members dampening expectations of when they will lower interests if inflation doesn’t continue to come down. Friday payroll number was higher than expected. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated.
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