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Government Spending Is Out of Control! LOL

The Big Picture

Let’s delve into a case in point of Coase’s theorem: If you wanted to peddle the narrative that government spending is out of control, you might present a chart like the one above, which is an exact replica of a chart that appeared recently in a piece of research from a major Wall St. investment firm. Both the Wall St.

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4th Quarter 2023 Economic And Market Outlook: Labor Market, Inflation, And Geopolitics

Nerd's Eye View

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Businesses are also feeling the pinch from higher interest rates, as November saw a rapid increase in the number of Chapter 11 commercial bankruptcies.

Economics 246
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Thanks, Joe! Updating Brandon’s Restaurants

The Big Picture

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.

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Stop Worrying About All Those Tech Layoffs…

The Big Picture

The present era of interest rate normalization is not remotely comparable to those eras. I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them. Even that implosion sent unemployment 6.3%, nearly double current levels. Put away your GFC-based PTSD. At least, not yet.

Numbers 325
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Inflation Expectations: A Dubious Survey

The Big Picture

Consider : Questioning investors as to their risk tolerance does not typically result in an accurate description of their true tolerance for drawdowns and lower returns; instead, we get a number highly dependent upon the performance of equity markets over the prior three to six months. November 22, 2009). Black Friday #Fails.

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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (September 9-10)

Nerd's Eye View

Also in industry news this week: Changes to CFP Board’s procedural rules went into effect September 1 and are intended to make the disciplinary process more efficient for respondents as well as CFP Board staff, and to expand the CFP Board’s ability to pursue more complaints against CFP professionals A NASAA model rule follows in the footsteps (..)