Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 14, 2024

The key reports this week are August Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. up from -4.7. -- Tuesday, September 17th -- 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for August will be released. increase in retail sales. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. The consensus is for a reading of -4.0, up from -7.0.

Retail 312

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 312

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. I also look at the yield curve, but I've found new home sales is generally more useful.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2023

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released. decrease in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. • We re-entered that same sideways range after last week's CPI (3.42-3.62 The consensus is for a 0.8% The consensus is for a 0.1%

Retail 195

Retail Sales Banking Numbers 195

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Slid 4.0% in November P ending home sales slid for the sixth consecutive month in November , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Falling home sales and construction have hurt broader economic activity." All four U.S. in November. The West index dropped by 0.9%

Sales 189

Sales Numbers Economics 189

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. Two key leading economic indicators are suggesting a recession this year. One of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting uses new home sales (also housing starts and residential investment). New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). So, it is extremely unlikely that we see a surge in distressed sales like happened after the housing bubble. How about housing starts and new home sales in 2023? "[M]y Sales in October 2023 were up 17.7% Year-to-date sales are up 4.6%

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

New Home Sales data from the Census Department, chart by Mish. Last month I noted huge new sales negative revisions for the August. New Home Sales Sales of new single? New Home Sales Sales of new single?family In September I reported New Home Sales Jump an Astonishing 28 Percent in August to 685,000.

Sales 165

Sales Economics Numbers 165

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 16, 2024

Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. 30 year fixed 6.72% ] emphasis added Tuesday: At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for November will be released. increase in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Retail 147

Retail Sales Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. This was about the same as last year and suggests similar real retail sales this holiday season as last year. Leisure and hospitality gained 19 thousand jobs in October.

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

One of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting uses new home sales (also housing starts and residential investment). I also look at the yield curve, but I've found new home sales is generally more useful. Note: The pandemic has distorted the economic data, and as I've noted many times, we can't be a slave to any model.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 14, 2024

The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. down from 31.2. -- Tuesday, December 17th -- 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for November will be released. increase in retail sales. The consensus is for a 0.5%

Retail 262

Retail Manufacturing Sales Economics 262

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. This was about the same as last year and suggests similar real retail sales this holiday season as last year. Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in November.

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. Frozen Market The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports Existing-Home Sales Slumped 7.7% Frozen Market The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports Existing-Home Sales Slumped 7.7% Sales slipped 7.7% Existing Home Sales Supply.

Sales 167

Sales Economics Retail Economy 167

Calculated Risk

APRIL 15, 2023

The key reports this week are March Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. -- Monday, April 17th -- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. -- Tuesday, April 18th -- 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for March.

Manufacturing 257

Manufacturing Sales Banking Numbers 257

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 14, 2023

The key reports this week are December retail sales, housing starts and existing home sales. 8:30 AM: Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released. decrease in retail sales. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Retail 264

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 264

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 12, 2022

The key economic reports this week are October Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for October will be released. increase in retail sales. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Retail 242

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 242

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. With the exception of the early stages of the pandemic, the decrease in total new sales was the sharpest since 2009. October: 47.8).

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 16, 2024

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. • Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. • They're currently still well under 7%, meaning that a vast majority of the improvement has been retained despite the modest erosion. [

Retail 147

Retail Sales Banking Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

Contacts from most Districts indicated economic growth was modest during July and August. New auto sales did expand in many Districts, but contacts noted this had more to do with better availability of inventory rather than increased consumer demand. Nearly all Districts reported the inventory of homes for sale remained constrained.

Manufacturing 298

Manufacturing Transportation Retail Sales 298

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).

Economics 289

Economics Sales Retirement Numbers 289

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 17, 2022

The key economic reports this week are Housing Starts, New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. -- Monday, December 19th -- 10:00 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey. 10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Sales 243

Sales Manufacturing Numbers Economics 243

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

theverge.com) Ozempic accounted for 41% of Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) total sales in 2023. wapo.st) Why is Apple ($AAPL) publicly touting its Apple Card spending numbers? econbrowser.com) Economic vibes are improving. (vox.com) Elon Musk and Tesla ($TSLA) have a pay problem as a Delaware judge strikes down an earlier agreement.

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Media Economy Accounting 262

Abnormal Returns

MAY 21, 2023

tker.co) The mix of light vehicle sales keeps shifting toward pickups and SUVs. calculatedriskblog.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media A growing number of New York City office buildings are emptying out. (noahpinion.blog) The NBA is a model for immigration policy.

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Startup Taxes Financial Services 242

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

That you can tank up in 2024 for $50-75 is an economic miracle, but people still love to complain about gas prices. For most of us who are not regularly crunching the numbers in spreadsheets, it may not feel that way. These houses aren’t really for sale. Houses are another legitimate and big complaint.

Budgeting 321

Budgeting Economics Sales Media 321

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? We have already seen a massive slowdown in home sales. But there is a tomorrow and my expectations are that if the Fed overtightens (as they appear on track to do) then the next 12 months will be less economically robust than the prior 12. Let’s dive into each of these: 1.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Calculated Risk

JULY 13, 2024

The key reports this week are June Retail Sales and Housing Starts. Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. -- Tuesday, July 16th -- 8:30 AM: Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for no change in retail sales. This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 182

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 182

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. It’s just off the peak, but still extremely high by any measure.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model.

Economics 312

Economics Retail Banking Economy 312

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies. Fall & Winter Double Issue With that background please consider the Philadelphia Fed Fall & Economic Insights Winter Double Issue for 2022 Q3 and Q4, emphasis mine. Retail Sales Evidence Food Service: +0.9

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Our latest survey shows 62% of builders are using incentives to bolster sales, including providing mortgage rate buy-downs, paying points for buyers and offering price reductions. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 246

Sales Numbers Economics Planning 246

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. wsj.com) Sketchy products keep showing up for sale on Amazon ($AMZN). theatlantic.com) Economy Menzie Chinn, "Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet."

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study by Cerulli has shown a sharp increase in the number of affluent investors willing to pay for advice, which on the one hand reflects the increasing financial complexity in peoples' lives (while they've also gotten (..)

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Fiduciary Duty CFP Accounting 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 16, 2023

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell six points to 40, the component charting sales expectations in the next six months dropped five points to 39 and t he gauge measuring traffic of prospective buyers dipped five points to 21.

Sales 217

Sales Numbers Economics Marketing 217

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2024

Other key indicators include the August ISM manufacturing index, August auto sales, and Trade Deficit for July. -- Monday, September 2nd -- All US markets will be closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday. -- Tuesday, September 3rd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for August. All Day: Light vehicle sales for August.

Manufacturing 189

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 189

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

Watch Rapport (link omitted on purpose) has every Rollie for sale up for pre-order at MSRP. I find it hard to believe something that obvious is the play, so I call the number listed at their Facebook account: (800) 571-7765. Sounds pretty good right? Maybe, a little too good? . Of note: Delivery within 180 Days.

Retail 332

Retail Economy Accounting Numbers 332