How The American Housing and Economic Mobility Act May Affect Estate Planning
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 18, 2024
The American Housing and Economic Mobility Act presents challenges and opportunities.
Government Spending Is Out of Control! LOL
The Big Picture
MARCH 24, 2025
Let’s delve into a case in point of Coase’s theorem: If you wanted to peddle the narrative that government spending is out of control, you might present a chart like the one above, which is an exact replica of a chart that appeared recently in a piece of research from a major Wall St. investment firm. Both the Wall St.
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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close
What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!
Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments
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Trending Sources
NAHB Housing Sentiment and Present Conditions Crash to Covid-19 Lows
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 19, 2022
The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market.
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NMHC and Fannie Mae Multi-Family Presentation
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 23, 2024
Yesterday, Chris Bruen, Senior Director of Research at NMHC and Kim Betancourt, CRE, Vice President, Multifamily Economics and Strategic Research at Fannie Mae presented the State of the Multi-Family Market (see video recording of presentation). The second graph shows annual rents and vacancy rates.
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4th Quarter 2023 Economic And Market Outlook: Labor Market, Inflation, And Geopolitics
Nerd's Eye View
JANUARY 3, 2024
The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. The key point is that, given the current economic uncertainty, there are several ways that advisors can help clients prepare for potential downturns.
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Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 8, 2025
Fed Chair Powell presents the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. -- Monday, February 10th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, February 11th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January. The key reports this week are January CPI and Retail sales.
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Thanks, Joe! Updating Brandon’s Restaurants
The Big Picture
JUNE 6, 2024
Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.
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Market Concentration
The Big Picture
JUNE 17, 2024
These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. They are based on historical data that looks at 200 Years of Market Concentration. You might be surprised at the findings. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration.
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Nobody Knows Anything, Dot Plot Edition
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 22, 2023
When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else. They may be terrible economic forecasters but give them credit for not burying bad predictions like so many on Wall Street tend to do. Go to the Fed’s website, and search for “ Summary of Economic Projections.”
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10 Charts To Help Address Client Concerns On Recession Fears, Tariff Risks, And Market Volatility
Nerd's Eye View
MARCH 26, 2025
Recent swings have been driven by economic policy shifts, persistent inflation concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty – all of which may unnerve even the steadiest of clients. Much of what's happening now reflects companies adapting to present-day challenges – from higher input costs to shifting consumer demand.
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Lessons for Investors from Mini-Panics
The Big Picture
AUGUST 25, 2023
The first post-pandemic presentation I pulled together for my pal Joe Fitzgerald (we worked together in the late 2000s) was a new deck titled: Biggest Mistakes Made by UHNW Investors. below is my discussion of what the presentation will be like at the MoneyShow in Orlando on October 30.
Investing Behavioral Hacks
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 15, 2023
Following the presentation I gave on navigating financial disasters , I spoke with Jeff Hirsch of Stock Traders Almanac ( video here ). Note: We deploy many of these solutions at RWM that take advantage of our knowledge of behavioral economics.) During our Q&A, he asked if I hated market timing and speculation.
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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?
The Big Picture
MARCH 3, 2023
The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. From a purely economic perspective, these first few crashes were meaningless. How you respond to challenges and opportunities they present matters a great deal.
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Sunday links: holding on a little longer
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 6, 2024
economy at present. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (tker.co) Q3 GDP is tracking around 3% growth. calculatedriskblog.com) There's really only one problem with the U.S. noahpinion.blog) People are always looking for a reason to criticize growth.
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 30, 2023
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Busy Week With Big Ticket Data And The Fed Unlike last week, the present example offers multiple scheduled economic reports that have consistent track records of causing market movement. Key examples include both ISM reports, ECI, JOLTS, and of course the jobs report on Friday.
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Want More Jobs? Raise the Minimum Wage
The Big Picture
MAY 4, 2023
The least contentious of which is that modest increases in minimum wages increase economic activity and create jobs. We present the first causal analysis of recent large minimum wage increases, focusing on 47 larger U.S. During that time, consuming lots of academic research, I reached a few logically supported conclusions.
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Stop Worrying About All Those Tech Layoffs…
The Big Picture
JANUARY 23, 2023
The present era of interest rate normalization is not remotely comparable to those eras. Even that implosion sent unemployment 6.3%, nearly double current levels. Put away your GFC-based PTSD. At least, not yet.
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The Many Ways the FOMC Can Be Wrong…
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 4, 2022
That presents a far less interesting scenario than its opposite: That the Fed is wrong and is undertaking a deeply misguided policy. We don’t know if the Fed is right about anything – Economics is at best a squishy and imperfect soft science. There is a real possibility that the Fed’s diagnosis is correct.
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The Fed is Hiking at the Most Aggressive Pace Ever (And What it Means for Housing)
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 29, 2022
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 1975-Present. Existing Home Sales long-term chart courtesy of Trading Economics. In declining sales environments and economic downturns (now), the Census Department dramatically overstates sales, even if we ignore revisions. In economic upturns, the Census Department understates sales.
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Market Timing vs. Time in the Market
Zoe Financial
JANUARY 28, 2025
Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated. Facts presented have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Economies and markets fluctuate. Ready to Grow Your Wealth?
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Inflation Expectations: A Dubious Survey
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 21, 2022
This presents a risk of the Federal Reserve raising rates too high and overtightening credit, leading to higher unemployment and potentially a recession, where neither is necessary. I hope to address this in greater detail in the coming weeks… Previously : How Overrated is Sentiment in Economics? November 22, 2009).
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (September 9-10)
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 8, 2023
Also in industry news this week: Changes to CFP Board’s procedural rules went into effect September 1 and are intended to make the disciplinary process more efficient for respondents as well as CFP Board staff, and to expand the CFP Board’s ability to pursue more complaints against CFP professionals A NASAA model rule follows in the footsteps (..)
Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Oct 29-30)
Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 28, 2022
Also in industry news this week: A proposed Department of Labor rule would limit the type of workers who could be considered independent contractors, which could present a challenge for the independent broker-dealer model. Fidelity has introduced a direct indexing platform for advisors, joining an increasingly competitive space.
Market Drama
Zoe Financial
MARCH 10, 2025
Economic Update: Tariffs & Consumption Impact: Proposed tariffs would affect 18% of U.S. Market Uncertainty: Investors are weighing whether this is a market correction or early signs of a recession as economic data shifts. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated. Stay tuned for next week.
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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?
The Big Picture
MARCH 28, 2024
The latest plot line was simply the animal spirits have been awoken and they have run amok and that’s how we have avoided an economic contraction. It is humbling to admit how little we actually know — not just about the future, but also, about what we perceive at present. He helped humanity move forward.
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10 Weekend Reads
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 11, 2023
This is the eighth year that I’ve presented this survey to a hand-selected group. Location of the 20 New Regional Innovation Hubs Source: Economic Innovation Group Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here. ~~~ To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this. New Yorker ) • Do You Know How to Behave?
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10 Wednesday AM Reads
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
Imagine I present to you a magical box that can turn your money into more money. What’s behind the UK’s economic mess? Last day of the 11th month! Enjoy the end of November with our mid-week morning train reads: • How Much Growth Can You Expect? Institutional Investor ).
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Schedule for Week of March 3, 2024
Calculated Risk
MARCH 2, 2024
House Financial Services Committee 2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. -- Thursday, March 7th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. 8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for February. million from 8.93
[cdata[ The Economics of Unused Gift Cards ]]
oXYGen Financial
DECEMBER 29, 2024
Year after year, they've reigned supreme as the go-to present of choiceand for good reason. [CDATA[ Every holiday season, gift cards dominate wish lists across America, eclipsing popular items like AirPods, PlayStations, or vinyl albums from trending artists.
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Weaker consumer demand helping to cool inflation: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook
Nationwide Financial
APRIL 17, 2023
But mortgage applications for purchase did rebound over March as demand remains highly sensitive to rates, which could present some upside in coming months. percent annualized pace, but economic activity is clearly downshifting.
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Market Drama
Zoe Financial
MARCH 24, 2025
Economic Update: Federal Reserve: Held rates steady at 4.25%4.50% Cited rising uncertainty around the economic outlook due to tariffs and slowing growth. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. A reminder of the value of global diversification.
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Market Drama
Zoe Financial
MARCH 3, 2025
Economic Update: Retail Sales: Weaker than expected in January. Economic Surprise Index: Declined over the last 4-5 weeks from high levels. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Facts presented have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable.
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Existing Home Sales Decline 10th Month, Down Another 7.7 Percent
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 21, 2022
in November "In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen in November, resembling the sales activity seen during the COVID-19 economic lockdowns in 2020, " said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun." Existing-home sales chart courtesy of Trading Economics. Buyers have moved to the sidelines. Existing Home Sales Since 1969.
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Market Drama
Zoe Financial
NOVEMBER 11, 2024
Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated. Facts presented have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Economies and markets fluctuate. Ready to Grow Your Wealth?
Marketing 52
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The Importance of Temporal Diversification
Discipline Funds
MARCH 10, 2025
But 20 years is a long time and most of us aren’t disciplined to let our assets sit around for 20 years because we live our lives in the present. And so the better you can match your income or returns to your expenses the more predictable you can make your financial life.
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Market Drama
Zoe Financial
FEBRUARY 3, 2025
Economic Update: Q4 Real GDP: Grew 2.3% Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated. Facts presented have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. expectation.
Marketing 52
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What’s Wrong With Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indexes
The Big Picture
AUGUST 8, 2023
It is a “monthly measure of how unpredictable overall economic conditions are 1 month, 3 months, and 1 year ahead.” But “uncertainty” as that word is commonly used on Wall Street 1 seems to be correlated with concerns about faltering economic conditions and/or rising market volatility. And I am okay with that.
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Market Update – February 2025
Tobias Financial
MARCH 11, 2025
In this update, Chad discusses inflationary and deflationary pressures, as well as the potential economic impact of tariffs. The information presented is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.
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Market Drama
Zoe Financial
FEBRUARY 24, 2025
Economic Update: Walmart Earnings : Reported lower-than-expected sales guidance, indicating potential weakness in U.S. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated. for the year.
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Navigating Tariffs: What They Mean for Your Personal Finances
Tobias Financial
MARCH 11, 2025
In times of economic uncertainty, market fluctuations can create anxiety for investors as they wonder what these changes mean for their savings, retirement accounts, and overall financial strategy. He highlighted the importance of staying invested through economic cycles rather than attempting to predict short-term movements.
#FA Success Ep 293: Jumpstarting Growth By Showing Up Differently Where Prospects Are (Digitally) Concentrated, With Anna N’Jie-Konte
Nerd's Eye View
AUGUST 9, 2022
In this episode, we talk in-depth about how Anna built a network of 19 financial influencers to launch a free 5-day virtual conference in order to get her name in front of more than 1,000 engaged prospects, the way Anna determined the ideal podcasts to target to get the word out about her advisory business by intentionally choosing over 70 podcasts (..)
10 Weekend Reads
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 14, 2024
Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Breaking Down OnlyFans’ Stunning Economics : In 2024, OnlyFans generated $6.3 So I stopped doing that and now all I’m doing when someone asks for a “deck” or a “presentation” or a “standup” is making Zines. (I The weekend is here!
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Schedule for Week of March 5, 2023
Calculated Risk
MARCH 4, 2023
Fed Chair Powell presents the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. -- Monday, March 6th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, March 7th -- 8:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for January. The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report. million from 10.4
Market Drama
Zoe Financial
JANUARY 20, 2025
Economic Update: Core CPI: Dropped to 3.2% Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated. Facts presented have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable.
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