Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2025

jeffreyptak.substack.com) Global China is more diverse (economic) than you think. propublica.org) Economy Retail sales are decelerating. (morningstar.com) People are not dumping target date funds willy-nilly. scottsumner.substack.com) What do we lose if the world turns against the U.S.? paulkrugman.substack.com) The U.S.

Media 195

Media Retail Economy Management 195

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2024

Markets will be more focused on the rate trajectory outlined in the Fed's economic projections as well as the guidance offered in the text of the announcement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. 30 year fixed 6.12% ] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for August will be released. increase in retail sales. •

Retail 182

Retail Sales Numbers Economics 182

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

Seasonal Retail Hiring Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. million jobs.

Retail 354

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 354

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JANUARY 6, 2023

Seasonal Retail Hiring Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. million jobs.

Retail 363

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Seasonal Retail Hiring Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. million jobs.

Retail 328

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 328

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JANUARY 17, 2023

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released. decrease in retail sales. At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. We re-entered that same sideways range after last week's CPI (3.42-3.62

Retail 195

Retail Sales Banking Numbers 195

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SEPTEMBER 14, 2024

The key reports this week are August Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. up from -4.7. -- Tuesday, September 17th -- 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for August will be released. increase in retail sales. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. The consensus is for a reading of -4.0, The consensus is for a 0.2%

Retail 312

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 312

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DECEMBER 16, 2024

Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. 30 year fixed 6.72% ] emphasis added Tuesday: At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for November will be released. increase in retail sales. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. The new week is off to a different start. The consensus is for a 0.5%

Retail 147

Retail Sales Numbers Economics 147

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 6, 2024

Retail Using LLMs to identify retail trader strategies. returnstacked.com) A look at how to identify economic regimes. papers.ssrn.com) A look at the value, or lack thereof, of WallStreetBets stock picks. alphaarchitect.com) Analysts Why are all-start investment analysts influential? mailchi.mp)

Retail 278

Retail Accounting Taxes Numbers 278

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NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Seasonal Retail Hiring Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. million jobs.

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 13, 2025

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining delinquency rates in the auto loan market. said Wilbert van der Klaauw, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, grew by $8 billion.

Economics 205

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 205

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Seasonal Retail Hiring Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. million jobs.

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. Real wholesale + retail sales. While we may not be in a recession yet, economic momentum has clearly slowed. The diffusion index = 100. That is no longer the case today. increase in 1Q.

Economics 321

Economics Banking Retail Economy 321

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NOVEMBER 29, 2023

On balance, economic activity slowed since the previous report , with four Districts reporting modest growth, two indicating conditions were flat to slightly down, and six noting slight declines in activity. The economic outlook for the next six to twelve months diminished over the reporting period.

Economics 173

Economics Transportation Manufacturing Sales 173

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JANUARY 5, 2024

Unemployment Rate Seasonal Retail Hiring Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008.

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 14, 2024

The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. down from 31.2. -- Tuesday, December 17th -- 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for November will be released. increase in retail sales. The consensus is for a reading of 5.8,

Retail 262

Retail Manufacturing Sales Economics 262

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

ft.com) Retail How Target ($TGT) lost its shine. sherwood.news) Five economic reasons to be thankful including 'Low unemployment claims. (newsletter.rationalwalk.com) What happens to Microstrategy ($MSTR) if Bitcoin were classified as a security? wsj.com) Black Friday sales are now more annoying than ever.

Media 162

Media Retail Economy Economics 162

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OCTOBER 18, 2023

Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Consumer spending was mixed, especially among general retailers and auto dealers, due to differences in prices and product offerings. Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of St.

Economics 162

Economics Retail Manufacturing Banking 162

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OCTOBER 6, 2023

“September auction sales bolstered prices through the channel,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive. We are at a crossroads for wholesale, mainly from concerns about the UAW strike’s potentially slowing new retail sales and moving buyers into the used market.

Retail 302

Retail Consulting Sales Economics 302

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JANUARY 16, 2024

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. • At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. The consensus is for a 0.3% The consensus is for a 0.1%

Retail 147

Retail Sales Banking Numbers 147

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 21, 2023

(institutionalinvestor.com) Are Google data useful for economic forecasting? papers.ssrn.com) Retail options trading is a net loser. econbrowser.com) Research Does international diversification still work? tandfonline.com) Value stocks still have room to outperform. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Bitcoin has not become 'digital gold.'

Retail 130

Retail Media Economics Management 130

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2024

Data centers continued to play an important role in growth, and retail planning has been steadily accelerating over the past eight months. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. Within the commercial portion of the Index, growth was widespread across all segments.

Healthcare 331

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 331

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MARCH 7, 2024

Though February activity was muted as we started the month, we saw more activity in the lanes at Manheim in the second half of the month and finished the last week of February with some of the strongest weekly gains in wholesale prices for many years,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive.

Consulting 344

Consulting Retail Taxes Economics 344

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SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

Next week, August CPI, retail sales, PPI, import and export prices, industrial production and monthly budget statement will affect our GDP tracking [Sept 8th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: July goods exports were stronger than our previous assumption, and we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +3.1% (qoq ar).

Budgeting 311

Budgeting Retail Sales Economics 311

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NOVEMBER 12, 2022

The key economic reports this week are October Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for October will be released. increase in retail sales. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail 242

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 242

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 12, 2024

(nytimes.com) How Shein conquered American retail. wsj.com) Longreads Noah Smith, "Poland’s economic rise has been among the world’s most remarkable." msn.com) How Bob Iger maneuvered his way to return to the CEO job at Disney ($DIS). nytimes.com) Crime Telegram is fraught with criminals, racists, extremists and disinformation.

Retail 278

Retail Economics 278

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JANUARY 14, 2023

The key reports this week are December retail sales, housing starts and existing home sales. 8:30 AM: Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released. decrease in retail sales. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail 264

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 264

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 5, 2022

From Moody’s Analytics Senior Economist Lu Chen: Office continues its bumpy ride, and Retail remains flat Office vacancy has been persistently stuck at over 18% since early 2021 , a consequence of excess inventories and strains on companies’ expansion plans. Reis also reported that office effective rents increased 0.4% this quarter.

Retail 314

Retail Economics Assets Planning 314

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MAY 9, 2023

“On par with our expectations, the Dodge Momentum Index continued to recede in April, due to declining economic conditions and ongoing banking uncertainty.” Commercial planning in April was pushed down by sluggish office, hotel and retail activity. Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator.

Healthcare 259

Healthcare Economics Planning Education 259

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 10, 2024

Hotels and retail planning have been steadily expanding as well. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. Commercial planning saw another month of broad-based improvements. After slowing down in recent years, warehouse projects have gained momentum over the last three months.

Healthcare 300

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 300

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Advance Retail Sales from Census Department, chart by Mish. Advance Retail Sales Today, the Commerce Department released Advance Retail Sales Data for October. retail and food services sales for October 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes , were $694.5

Retail 130

Retail Sales Food Economics 130

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 15, 2023

priceactionlab.com) Retail traders are taking a break from trading. economicforces.xyz) The economic schedule for the coming week. Markets We are living through the worst bond bear market in history. cnbc.com) Why the stock market can rise in the face of war. wsj.com) How to think about core bond funds. Was it worth it?

Financial Advising 288

Financial Advising Media Retail Economy 288

Calculated Risk

JULY 13, 2024

The key reports this week are June Retail Sales and Housing Starts. Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. -- Tuesday, July 16th -- 8:30 AM: Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for no change in retail sales. This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 182

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 182

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 8, 2022

The key economic reports this week are September CPI and Retail Sales. -- Monday, Oct 10th -- Columbus Day Holiday : Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. No economic releases are scheduled. No economic releases are scheduled. increase in retail sales. This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 182

Retail Sales Economics Food 182

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2024

Data center planning continued to be the primary driver of commercial growth in June, alongside moderate growth in retail, hotels and warehouse projects. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. The DMI is up 43% from June 2019 levels, signaling strong construction spending in 2025.”

Healthcare 278

Healthcare Planning Education Retail 278

Advisor Perspectives

JUNE 24, 2024

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

Economics 81

Economics Retail Sales Economy 81

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

markets.businessinsider.com) Companies How retailers have responded to the post-pandemic era. ritholtz.com) Seven economic myths including that the consumer is 'tapped out.' bloomberg.com) Dave Nadig, Barry Ritholtz and Cameron Dawson talk 2023's economic cross-currents. awealthofcommonsense.com) U.S wsj.com) The U.S.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Advertising Retail Economy 264