Calculated Risk

MARCH 24, 2025

A bigger departure from this range will require a bigger shift in several key economic reports (specifically, inflation reports and the big jobs report that typically comes out on the first Friday of the month). [ This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 4.6%

Sales 147

Sales Manufacturing Economics Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2024

Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity expanded slightly , on balance, since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth—up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity.

Economics 273

Economics Manufacturing Sales Banking 273

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. New home sales were up 2.1% How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

Sales 147

Sales Investments Investing Commission 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2024

Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Monday: At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for November from the Census Bureau. Sales in October were impacted by the hurricanes, with the South region down 27.7% The consensus is for a 0.4%

Sales 147

Sales Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 15, 2025

The key reports this week are February Retail sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. increase in retail sales. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.

Retail 191

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 191

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2025

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Friday. -- Monday, March 3rd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. All day: Light vehicle sales for February. Sales were at 15.6 Sales were at 15.6 The consensus is for an increase in sales to 15.9 The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8,

Sales 162

Sales Economics Manufacturing Government 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 6, 2024

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly, on balance, since early January, with eight Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, three others reporting no change, and one District noting a slight softening. Consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks.

Economics 289

Economics Manufacturing Insurance Engineering 289

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). This appears to include some pending sales and doesn’t match some other measures of inventory (Altos and Realtor.com). How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022? "My New home sales were down 15.2% If so, how many times?

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% New home sales were up 3.9%

Economics 226

Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 27, 2024

msn.com) How big a disappointment are Apple ($AAPL) VIsion Pro sales? statnews.com) Economy Where does economic growth come from? conversableeconomist.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (humbledollar.com) Companies How did Boeing ($BA) go so wrong? npr.org) How the alcohol lobby has kept higher taxes at bay.

Financial Advising 293

Financial Advising Economics Media Taxes 293

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

The key reports this week are January CPI and Retail sales. Fed Chair Powell presents the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. -- Monday, February 10th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, February 11th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January.

Retail 162

Retail Sales Financial Services Food 162

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

Light-Vehicle Sales Show Signs of Life (pay content). million, but also meaning November-December results will weaken from October, with the primary reason being stiffer economic headwinds expected. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for October (Red). From WardsAuto: October U.S.

Sales 208

Sales Economics Marketing Marketing 208

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

From Goldman: Following [Wednesday]’s data, we have left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.0%. percent on November 27, up from 2.6 percent on November 19. [Nov percent on November 27, up from 2.6 percent on November 19. percent to 3.0

Economics 147

Economics Sales 147

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 6, 2022

Here are two holiday retail sales forecasts. Last year’s holiday sales grew 13.5% Holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 4.9% Here is a graph from the NRF showing the year-over-year change in retail sales in November and December (ex-automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants). billion and $960.4

Retail 208

Retail Sales Accounting Economics 208

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2023

The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light trucks and SUVs) through April 2023. Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time. The second graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs.

Sales 204

Sales Economics 204

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

An update: The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light trucks and SUVs) through April 2023. Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time. Currently about 80% of light vehicle sales are light trucks or SUVs.

Sales 200

Sales Economics 200

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2025

jeffreyptak.substack.com) Global China is more diverse (economic) than you think. propublica.org) Economy Retail sales are decelerating. (morningstar.com) People are not dumping target date funds willy-nilly. scottsumner.substack.com) What do we lose if the world turns against the U.S.? paulkrugman.substack.com) The U.S.

Media 195

Media Retail Economy Management 195

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and Ill post thoughts on those in this newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

Economics 147

Economics Sales 147

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 19, 2022

National economic activity expanded modestly on net since the previous report; however, conditions varied across industries and Districts. Rising mortgage rates and elevated house prices further weakened single-family starts and sales , but helped buoy apartment leasing and rents, which generally remained high. emphasis added

Sales 242

Sales Transportation Retail Manufacturing 242

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

Economic activity was unchanged , on balance, since early July, with five Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity and five others reporting slight to modest softening. Auto sales remained muted across most Districts, reflecting limited inventories and elevated prices. emphasis added

Sales 246

Sales Transportation Food Manufacturing 246

Calculated Risk

JULY 1, 2024

This time around, however, the economic data has been suggesting DOWNWARD pressure on rates over the past two days. Late in the day, Light vehicle sales for June. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 15.9 million SAAR in June, unchanged from 15.9 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

Sales 189

Sales Banking Economics Marketing 189

Calculated Risk

MAY 25, 2023

Light-Vehicle Sales Set for Biggest Volume Gain in 2023 (pay content). emphasis added Note: When writing "biggest volume gain", Wards is referring to the year-over-year gain since sales were especially weak in May 2022. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for May (Red). From WardsAuto: May U.S.

Sales 208

Sales Economics Marketing Marketing 208

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 4, 2023

theatlantic.com) Cold drinks make up some 75% of Starbucks ($SBUX) sales. (asia.nikkei.com) Apple's new Vision Pro is going to need content. theverge.com) Companies Netflix ($NFLX) changed how content is made. Hence the Hollywood strikes. qsrmagazine.com) Do you really want to get your healthcare from Dollar General ($DG)?

Economics 246

Economics Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 246

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2024

Markets will be more focused on the rate trajectory outlined in the Fed's economic projections as well as the guidance offered in the text of the announcement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. 30 year fixed 6.12% ] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for August will be released. increase in retail sales. •

Retail 182

Retail Sales Numbers Economics 182

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The city of Chicago owns some 10,000 vacant lots, with a large concentration in economically-challenged neighborhoods that have experienced decades of underinvestment. Selling them could help reduce overall crime. It could also boost affordable housing development.

Sales 299

Sales Planning Economics 299

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 17, 2024

The key reports this week are July New and Existing Home sales. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the "Economic Outlook" at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. 10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Sales 275

Sales Economics Manufacturing 275

Nerd's Eye View

NOVEMBER 22, 2023

The initial step towards the eventual sale of an advisory firm requires the seller to identify a well-suited counterparty, which can be challenging given the population of well-funded serial acquirers who have a material advantage over firm owners, many of whom have likely never bought or sold a business. Read More.

Compliance 246

Compliance Sales Financial Advisor Financial Planning 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2024

Fed's Beige Book A majority of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period. In contrast, concerns about the office market, weakening overall demand, and the 2024 political cycle were often cited as sources of economic uncertainty.

Economics 201

Economics eCommerce Manufacturing Sales 201

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. I also look at the yield curve, but I've found new home sales is generally more useful.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 28, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: A Proposal to Address the Housing Crisis Brief excerpt: Economist Adam Ozimek and John Lettieri (CEO, Economic Innovation Group) have a new proposal to address the housing crisis in the United States: How the next president can solve America’s housing crisis U.S.

Economics 147

Economics Sales 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). So, it is extremely unlikely that we see a surge in distressed sales like happened after the housing bubble. How about housing starts and new home sales in 2023? "[M]y Sales in October 2023 were up 17.7% Year-to-date sales are up 4.6%

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 29, 2023

On balance, economic activity slowed since the previous report , with four Districts reporting modest growth, two indicating conditions were flat to slightly down, and six noting slight declines in activity. Several Districts noted a slight decrease in residential sales and higher inventories of available homes.

Economics 173

Economics Transportation Manufacturing Sales 173

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 18, 2025

The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. -- Monday, January 20th -- All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. 11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for January. -- Friday, January 24th -- 10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Economics Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 27, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). year-over-year as of November.

Economics 147

Economics Sales Retirement Investments 147

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports Existing-Home Sales Slumped 5.9% in October Existing Home Sales Key Points Existing-home sales faded for the ninth month in a row to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 Sales fell 5.9%

Sales 224

Sales Marketing Marketing Economics 224

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. Two key leading economic indicators are suggesting a recession this year. One of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting uses new home sales (also housing starts and residential investment). New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363