Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2022 Below are my ten questions for 2023 (I've been doing this every year for over a decade!). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably under 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. New home sales were down 15.2%

Economics 138

Economics Economy Sales Commission 138

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. Real wholesale + retail sales. While we may not be in a recession yet, economic momentum has clearly slowed. The diffusion index = 100. That is no longer the case today. increase in 1Q.

Economics 321

Economics Banking Retail Economy 321

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 4, 2024

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity rose slightly in most Districts. Though growth in economic activity was generally small, expectations for growth rose moderately across most geographies and sectors. Three regions exhibited modest or moderate growth that offset flat or slightly declining activity in two others.

Economics 111

Economics Economy Sales Investing 111

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2022

Sales volumes and average prices for virtual land have plunged this year, part of a broader slide in crypto and non-fungible token prices. Corporate Stagflation Means Rising Sales With Flat Volumes It’s growth, but not healthy growth, and it doesn’t really help the economy. The Information ). • The Information ). • New York Times ).

Economics 304

Economics Economy Sales Banking 304

Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2024

Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity expanded slightly , on balance, since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth—up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity.

Economics 109

Economics Manufacturing Sales Banking 109

Abnormal Returns

MAY 14, 2024

ofdollarsanddata.com) Economy Heavy truck sales rose in April. calculatedriskblog.com) Most economic data is an estimate, not the real thing. (morningstar.com) Don't confuse selling calls with income. rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Gold won't save you if stuff really hits the fan.

Financial Advising 259

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 259

Advisor Perspectives

JUNE 24, 2024

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

Economics 81

Economics Retail Sales Economy 81

Calculated Risk

MARCH 6, 2024

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly, on balance, since early January, with eight Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, three others reporting no change, and one District noting a slight softening. Consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks.

Economics 115

Economics Manufacturing Insurance Engineering 115

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

You can see why the NBER does not rely on GDP (pink line) alone; GDP was slightly negative, while Manufacturing and Trade Sales were more negative. It is difficult to look at these 6 (or 7) data points honestly and draw the conclusion that the nation’s economic activity in the first half shrunk.

Manufacturing 324

Manufacturing Economy Economics Sales 324

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies. Fall & Winter Double Issue With that background please consider the Philadelphia Fed Fall & Economic Insights Winter Double Issue for 2022 Q3 and Q4, emphasis mine. Retail Sales Evidence Food Service: +0.9

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 7, 2022

politico.com) How friendships across economic classes affect income mobility. theconversation.com) Economics Putting the July NFP into some historical perspective. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. e-bike sales are booming. nytimes.com) 1 in 5 Americans don't want children. wsj.com).

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Economics Food Manufacturing 246

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

The latest data is from September and that represents sales primarily made in July and August so the declines shown are undoubtedly understated. Existing Home Sales. Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. Existing Home Sales Month-Over-Month. Existing home sales are down 31.7%

Sales 321

Sales Marketing Marketing Economics 321

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

theverge.com) Ozempic accounted for 41% of Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) total sales in 2023. econbrowser.com) Economic vibes are improving. (vox.com) Elon Musk and Tesla ($TSLA) have a pay problem as a Delaware judge strikes down an earlier agreement. wapo.st) Why is Apple ($AAPL) publicly touting its Apple Card spending numbers?

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Media Economy Accounting 263

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

That you can tank up in 2024 for $50-75 is an economic miracle, but people still love to complain about gas prices. I don’t know if this explains all of the mismatch between actual economic conditions and sentiment, but perhaps it explains some… Previously : What Is the Consumer Doing…? Others are positive but invisible.

Economics 321

Economics Budgeting Sales Media 321

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? We have already seen a massive slowdown in home sales. But there is a tomorrow and my expectations are that if the Fed overtightens (as they appear on track to do) then the next 12 months will be less economically robust than the prior 12. Let’s dive into each of these: 1.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% New home sales were up 3.9%

Economics 90

Economics Economy Sales Commission 90

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes. Existing Home Sales Decline 9th Month, Down Another 5.9 Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St.

Sales 226

Sales Economics Marketing Marketing 226

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. With the exception of the early stages of the pandemic, the decrease in total new sales was the sharpest since 2009.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 31, 2023

humbledollar.com) Why it's easy to say you will buy when stocks 'go on sale.' newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Just how much is China's economic growth slowing? Strategy Money market returns look good.almost too good. wsj.com) Six lessons from William Bernstein's "The Four Pillars of Investing."

Assets 261

Assets Financial Advising Media Economy 261

The Big Picture

AUGUST 5, 2022

. • The people making millions off Listerine royalties A little-known provision in a 100-year-old contract opened up the door for private investors to mint money from mouthwash sales. ( The Hustle ). Sneakerhead Accused of Running Huge Air Jordan Ponzi Scheme : Zadeh Kicks promised the hottest sneakers at discount prices.

License 289

License Economics Banking Economy 289

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). This appears to include some pending sales and doesn’t match some other measures of inventory (Altos and Realtor.com). How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022? "My New home sales were down 15.2% If so, how many times?

Economics 114

Economics Sales Economy Banking 114

Abnormal Returns

JULY 24, 2024

wsj.com) Existing home sales are moribund. sherwood.news) Relying on any single economic indicator is a mistake. (sherwood.news) Economy Why the Fed should cut rates now, not September. bloomberg.com) Layoffs are low but that doesn't mean its a good time to find a job. axios.com) 3 in 5 Americans think we are already in recession.

Math 264

Math Financial Advising Media Economy 264

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 27, 2024

msn.com) How big a disappointment are Apple ($AAPL) VIsion Pro sales? statnews.com) Economy Where does economic growth come from? conversableeconomist.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (humbledollar.com) Companies How did Boeing ($BA) go so wrong? npr.org) How the alcohol lobby has kept higher taxes at bay.

Financial Advising 294

Financial Advising Economics Media Taxes 294

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 5, 2024

bonddad.blogspot.com) Heavy truck sales ticked down in March. calculatedrisk.substack.com) Americans are confusing the current economic situation with their hopes for the future. (calculatedriskblog.com) Weekly initial unemployment claims ticked higher. calculatedriskblog.com) Immigration is positive for growth and housing.

Financial Advising 277

Financial Advising Advertising Media Economy 277

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 7, 2023

axios.com) Economy Kyla Scanlon, "People are complex and economics doesn’t (can’t!) bonddad.blogspot.com) Heavy truck sales grew in November. (bloomberg.com) Bonds Vanguard is launching new actively managed bond ETFs. barrons.com) Electronic trading of corporate bonds is growing, albeit slowly. take that into consideration."

Digital Media 274

Digital Media Electronics Financial Advising Startup 274

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

Electric Vehicles Start to Enter the Car-Buying Mainstream : While sales are still skewed toward affluent buyers, more people are choosing electric vehicles to save money. ( Bloomberg ). • The ‘Next Warren Buffett’ Curse Isn’t Always Fatal : Eddie Lampert Jr., The first is a faith in market capitalism. Behavioral Scientist ). •

Recruitment 245

Recruitment Advertising Economics Sales 245

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model.

Economics 312

Economics Retail Economy Banking 312

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Advance Retail Sales from Census Department, chart by Mish. Advance Retail Sales Today, the Commerce Department released Advance Retail Sales Data for October. retail and food services sales for October 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes , were $694.5

Retail 130

Retail Sales Food Economics 130

Abnormal Returns

JULY 9, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) Heavy truck sales are up some 15% year-over-year. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (vox.com) Economy Will interest rates eventually slow the U.S. calculatedriskblog.com) Why Wall Street economists are walking back their recession calls.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Taxes Economy Media 246

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

calculatedriskblog.com) The bifurcation between new and existing home sales continues. bonddad.blogspot.com) Economy Economic anxiety isn't going anywhere. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Case-Shiller shows a 1% increase in home prices year-over-year through July. morningstar.com) How politics broke consumer sentiment measures.

Asset Allocation 279

Asset Allocation Financial Advising Assets Media 279

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 4, 2023

statnews.com) Economy Economic data doesn't move in straight lines. tker.co) Heavy truck sales were up sharply in May. washingtonpost.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (businessinsider.com) The Sacklers are going to get away with it. thebasispoint.com) Immigrants and women are leading the labor economy recovery.

Financial Advising 241

Financial Advising Startup Banking Economy 241

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 17, 2022

Not to worry, I am sure the owners got out at the top with stock options and sales. Some excellent comments from @guydealership and others. The lead chart suggests Carvana is headed for bankruptcy. This post originated at MishTalk.Com. Thanks for Tuning In! Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Retail 66

Retail Sales Economics 66

Abnormal Returns

MAY 21, 2023

tker.co) The mix of light vehicle sales keeps shifting toward pickups and SUVs. calculatedriskblog.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (noahpinion.blog) The NBA is a model for immigration policy. washingtonpost.com) Economy American consumer behavior is normalizing.

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Startup Taxes Financial Services 242

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

Also in industry news this week: As brokerage firms have faced a wave of lawsuits regarding the low interest rates paid on cash sweep accounts, some legal experts believe that RIAs could also be targeted for legal action if they allow clients' uninvested cash to sit in a cash sweep account rather than investing it or moving it to a higher-yielding (..)

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Fiduciary Duty CFP Accounting 246

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 18, 2023

foreignaffairs.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media The music industry is being upended by huge catalogue sales. (msn.com) How the GOP and big business broke up. wsj.com) How the Confederate diaspora changed America. abnormalreturns.com) What you missed in our Saturday linkfest.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Government Media Taxes 246

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 3, 2023

theatlantic.com) Why economic perceptions have been so negative. epsilontheory.com) Economy Heavy truck sales are at a record high in the U.S. (econbrowser.com) A soft landing is becoming the base case. nytimes.com) Why the U.S. economy didn't go into recession this year. calculatedriskblog.com) Gasoline prices are back on the rise.

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Portfolio Management Economy Media 244