Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2024

economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. There is also the potential for significant policy mistakes, but for now I'm assuming any policy changes will not significantly impact the economy in 2025. How much will the economy grow in 2025? Q4-over-Q4).

Economics 290

Economics Economy Sales Commission 290

Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 26, 2024

In the weeks leading up to November’s election, financial advisors were largely positive on the state of the economy and the stock market, according to the monthly Advisor Sentiment Index.

Economy 260

Economy Financial Advisor Marketing Marketing 260

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2024

economy is performing. economy, its performance has been very good." Fed Chair Powell, Nov 7, 2024: "It's actually remarkable how strong the U.S. We're performing better than all of our global peers. Ultimately, if you look at the U.S. percent on November 7, up from 2.4 percent on November 5.

Retail 260

Retail Economy Sales 260

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 4, 2025

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 8.12

Numbers 269

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 269

Wealth Management

JULY 26, 2024

Financial advisors are still bullish on the prospects for the U.S. stock market, according to WealthManagement.com's Advisor Sentiment Index

Economy 298

Economy Financial Advisor Marketing Marketing 298

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

economy may be dampening demand and price appreciation. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added just 12,000 jobs in October 2024, the fewest in almost four years. Besides the uncertainty regarding the U.S. election and mortgage rate volatility, the mixed signals around the current state of the U.S.

Economy 254

Economy Numbers Economics Marketing 254

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

This is how models depict the economy. This is how the economy actually behaves. I think about that calm pond this time of year when the annual Wall Street forecasts for markets and the economy get released. The result will be very predictable: concentric rings will expand out from where the mass disrupts the calm surface.

Economy 200

Economy Retail Portfolio Assets 200

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 28, 2024

allfields.substack.com) Economy On the flip side of the national debt debate. economy at this point? (marginalrevolution.com) Why NFL players have not embraced the Guardian Cap. wired.com) There is no solving the physicality inherent in football. optimisticallie.com) What more would you want from the U.S.

Financial Advising 276

Financial Advising Economy Media Management 276

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

. • In particular, it examines the potential channels through which stress in crypto­-asset markets could be transmitted to the traditional financial system and ultimately disrupt the real economy. • wizards figures out a new way to turn lead into gold, and to become wealthy while damaging the financial system.

Assets 189

Assets Economy Marketing Marketing 189

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

Excerpt: The recent performance of our economy has been remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world. The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.

Economy 147

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2025

propublica.org) Economy Retail sales are decelerating. calculatedriskblog.com) More signs the economy is weakening. (paulkrugman.substack.com) The U.S. has halted efforts to clean up Agent Orange in Vietnam. bonddad.blogspot.com) National home builder confidence fell in March. econbrowser.com) People really want to work from home.

Media 195

Media Retail Economy Management 195

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11 to 1 to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, after holding it for more than a year at its highest level in two decades.

Economy 262

Economy Marketing Marketing 262

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 4, 2024

Sales of farm equipment were a notable headwind to overall investment activity, and several contacts expressed concerns about the future prices of equipment given ongoing weakness in the farm economy. Energy activity in the oil and gas sector was flat but demand for electricity generation continued to grow at a robust rate.

Economics 278

Economics Economy Sales Investments 278

Calculated Risk

MARCH 11, 2025

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 7.51

Numbers 165

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 165

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

economy continues to be in a good place. Recent Economic Data Economic growth The economy has been growing at a solid pace. It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy. From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Food Communication 162

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

arstechnica.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks Gen Z with Kyla Scanlon, author of "In This Economy?: (hollywoodreporter.com) Spotify ($SPOT) will start publishing independent audiobooks. techcrunch.com) Pocket Casts is making its podcast player free. How Money & Markets Really Work."

Budgeting 147

Budgeting Taxes Economy Economics 147

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 6, 2025

bloomberg.com) Economy Recessions are temporary, but have permanent impacts. macleans.ca) Is China's economy underperforming? (behavioralscientist.org) Public health Five years on, what Covid wrought in the U.S. including 'It broke our faith in public health.' nytimes.com) Some of the top vape brands in the U.S. flout regulators.

Engineering 147

Engineering Economy Economics 147

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2024

percent year-over-year, according to the October ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “As

Economy 173

Economy 173

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 13, 2025

eater.com) Economy Still no meaningful pickup in weekly initial unemployment claims. (marginalrevolution.com) Things from the pandemic that stuck around including restaurant pop-ups. calculatedriskblog.com) Producer price inflation has stopped going down. bonddad.blogspot.com) Is $50 oil actually good for the U.S.

Economy 162

Economy Media Investments Investing 162

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 21, 2025

economy has been in a recession for just two months out of the past 15-and-a-half years. economy has been remarkably resilient throughout the 2010s and 2020s. One of my favorite ongoing economic stats is the fact that the U.S. Sure, there have been some bumps along the way but the U.S.

Economy 130

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 130

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 27, 2024

statnews.com) Economy Where does economic growth come from? (msn.com) More Americans live in health care deserts as small hospitals close. advisorperspectives.com) In many states a rape exception is no help at all. npr.org) How the alcohol lobby has kept higher taxes at bay. awealthofcommonsense.com) R&D spending in the U.S. is booming.

Financial Advising 293

Financial Advising Economics Media Taxes 293

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 6, 2025

statsignificant.com) Economy Recessions have some permanent effects. calculatedriskblog.com) Policy volatility can't be great for the economy. (hollywoodreporter.com) How long should you watch a show before giving up? awealthofcommonsense.com) Still no meaningful pickup in weekly initial unemployment claims.

Economy 147

Economy Media Management Investments 147

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 30, 2024

frontofficesports.com) Economy 2024 Q3 GDP ran at a 2.8% (johnwallstreet.com) A closer look at rising NBA valuations. huddleup.substack.com) An existential threat to pro sports: kids don't watch live sports. growth rate. bonddad.blogspot.com) Why mortgage rates are going up, not down.

Financial Advising 269

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 269

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession. Usually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow.

Sales 309

Sales Investments Investing Economy 309

The Big Picture

AUGUST 12, 2024

Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? That none of these things occurred makes me wonder why we still pay attention to these deficit hawks. And second, should we ignore changes that have taken place over that 15-year period?

Economy 347

Economy Taxes Investments Investing 347

Calculated Risk

MARCH 24, 2025

Sales could pick up if mortgage rates decline, however, if the decline is related to a weaker economy, the increase in unemployment might outweigh any boost from lower mortgage rates. If inventory is close to 2019 levels by the end of 2025, and sales remain sluggish, months-of-supply will move up sharply.

Sales 162

Sales Economy 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2025

For now, both rail traffic and the broader economy reflect a mix of strengths and weaknesses, with some sectors proving resilient while others struggle in the face of shifting conditions. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 162

The Big Picture

MAY 4, 2023

I have been nurturing a pet thesis as to why higher minimum wages are a net positive for an economy: It acts as a transfer of revenue allocation from low-wage employers and franchisees from Capital to Labor. It stays local and is likely to benefit the regional economy. It has aa much smaller impact on the local economy.

Food 364

Food Economy Retail Retirement 364

Calculated Risk

MARCH 5, 2025

Mortgage rates declined last week on souring consumer sentiment regarding the economy and increasing uncertainty over the impact of new tariffs levied on imported goods into the U.S. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Government 221

Government Economy Marketing Marketing 221

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2025

It wouldn't take a RE bust to impact the general economy. Just a slowdown in both volume (to impact employment) and in prices (to slow down borrowing) might push the general economy into recession. Many homeowners have refinanced their homes, in essence using their homes as an ATM.

Economy 147

Economy Sales 147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

Participants indicated that, provided the economy remained near maximum employment, they would want to see further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate. emphasis added

Economy 147

Economy Economics Numbers Marketing 147

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 3, 2024

reuters.com) Economy Quits and job openings are down year-over-year. economy is still pretty dynamic, for now. (theatlantic.com) Ukraine is struggling to keep the power on as Russia continues to target civilian infrastructure. calculatedriskblog.com) The U.S.

Math 147

Math Valuation Startup Economy 147

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 4, 2024

marginalrevolution.com) Economy Q2 GDP Nowcasts are coming down. apolloacademy.com) Anger about the economy isn't really about the economy. (blogs.microsoft.com) The scale of destruction in Ukraine is unfathomable. nytimes.com) A lot of Canadians are headed for America.

Financial Advising 293

Financial Advising Economy Valuation Media 293

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 7, 2025

In this episode, we talk in-depth about how Pete frames the differences between socially responsible investing (which is focused on excluding certain industries or companies from portfolios), ESG investing (which measures the risk to companies from environmental, social, and governance factors), and Pete's sustainable investing approach (which he views (..)

Investing 240

Investing Investments Clients Risk Tolerance 240

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 6, 2024

eig.org) Immigration affects the economy in a lot of different ways. thecausalfallacy.com) Economy The labor economy is still on track. economy at present. (wsj.com) The pros and cons of buffered ETFs. whitecoatinvestor.com) Policy Financial transfers play an increasingly important role in American income.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Economy Food Insurance 278

Calculated Risk

JUNE 4, 2024

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 8.36

Numbers 331

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 331

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 29, 2024

crr.bc.edu) Economy The U.S. economy is not too hold or too cold. apolloacademy.com) You have to squint hard to find weakness in the economy. (msn.com) Don't ever hand your phone over to the police. theverge.com) Who pays for teacher pensions? carsongroup.com) A look at the Misery Index over the past decade.

Financial Advising 297

Financial Advising Economy Media Economics 297