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Friday links: witnessing reality

Abnormal Returns

sherwood.news) AI Why Reddit ($RDDT) is cracking down on search engines. theverge.com) The number of AI models just keeps growing. wsj.com) Economy The June PCE price index increased 2.5% economy is impressive. ourworldindata.org) A growing number of Americans say they do not plan to have children. apnews.com)

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People : The highest-earning 10% of Americans have increased their spending far beyond inflation. The ultrarich are growing in numbers, and changing wealth as we know it. ( Imagine if every sentence in a story were expected to contain the same number of alphanumeric characters.

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Sunday links: forecasting accuracy

Abnormal Returns

washingtonpost.com) The number of American centenarians is set to quadruple. papers.ssrn.com) Economy People have nostalgia for a time that never existed. theatlantic.com) Why your search engine results are getting worse. (vox.com) Threats of violence against elected officials and government officials are on the rise.

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Predicting the Next Recession

Calculated Risk

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. I disagreed and noted I wasn't even on recession watch! And guess what?

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

If anything, it feels like the Fed wants to fight us, all of us, including the stock market and the economy. The Fed is actively trying to crash the stock market, break the housing market and push the economy into a recession. That’s not the case anymore. How do I know this? Wealth of Common Sense ). • Institutional Investor ).

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Recession Watch

Calculated Risk

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

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Soft Landing RIP

The Big Picture

How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? There are so many variables in answering this question reverse engineering possible Q3 and Q4 earnings and coming up with some multiple seems to be a fool’s errand. Here are five of those questions: 1. The trillion-dollar question.

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