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Let’s delve into a case in point of Coase’s theorem: If you wanted to peddle the narrative that government spending is out of control, you might present a chart like the one above, which is an exact replica of a chart that appeared recently in a piece of research from a major Wall St. investment firm. How can this be?
Mortgage rates declined last week on souring consumer sentiment regarding the economy and increasing uncertainty over the impact of new tariffs levied on imported goods into the U.S. The move in government refinances was driven by a 75 percent increase in VA loans, which have been prone to large changes in recent months.
But the more likely outcome, if present trends continue, is a party system so fractured that forming a coherent and stable government becomes nearly impossible. From out of the resulting chaos, it could become impossible to prevent one of the radical anti-system parties, including the AfD, from joining a governing coalition.
(sixcolors.com) Contracts When the government pulls money from an account without authority. government is breaking legal contracts. wired.com) Economy Industrial production rose in January. axios.com) It's hard to plan when the U.S. nytimes.com) DOGE DOGE's website is less than secure.
1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? In addition, the Congress is threatening to shut down the government in October and - more worrisome - default on the US debt. Or will the economy lose jobs?
In this episode, we talk in-depth about how Pete frames the differences between socially responsible investing (which is focused on excluding certain industries or companies from portfolios), ESG investing (which measures the risk to companies from environmental, social, and governance factors), and Pete's sustainable investing approach (which he views (..)
Prior to this role at BCG, Philipp advised financial institutions and governments at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as well as McKinsey & Company. This week, I speak with Philipp Carlsson , Global Chief Economist for Boston Consulting Group. He was also Chief Economist at Stanford C.
nytimes.com) DOGE Elon Musk has been plotting the destruction of the federal government for awhile now. propublica.org) DOGE laid off the GSA's 18F team which works to make government systems work better. axios.com) Economy Where manufacturing jobs are increasing. Oz is hopelessly conflicted, from a financial perspective.
standard.co.uk) Economy The good producing sector is flatlining. wsj.com) You can't just exclude government spending from GDP. (ft.com) The UK has expensive housing AND expensive energy. theatlantic.com) It's hard to live in London without family money. bonddad.blogspot.com) Unsold housing inventory is on the rise.
wsj.com) Economy Four factors that help identify a coming recession. bonddad.blogspot.com) Just how much does government spend? (axios.com) Cuts will likely make customer service at Social Security even worse. optimisticallie.com) The employment situation is weak.
The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE).
government bonds. wealthmanagement.com) Economy All the data is pointing toward the need for a Fed rate cut. economy outperformed Europe, post-Covid? Bonds Bonds are doing okay in 2024, except for duration. capitalspectator.com) Bonds drive markets. allstarcharts.com) The case for central clearing of U.S.
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What this could do to the economy and the stock market is anybody’s guess, but there is probably less cause for alarm than you might think. The post A Government Shutdown appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor. This sounds inconceivable, but it’s not without precedent.
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BRICS is a coalition of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The collective efforts of BRICS highlight the importance of collaboration among emerging economies. This alliance has the potential to challenge established power structures, particularly in global economic governance.
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Economy Katie Gatti Tassin about the disconnect in the economy with Mark Zandi and Judd Cramer. open.spotify.com) Stephen Clapham talks sustainability with Carine Smith Ihenacho is Chief Governance and Compliance Officer at Norges Bank, the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund.
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Both conventional and government home purchase applications increased last week. economy, markets continue to expect that the Fed will raise short-term rates at its next meeting, which have pushed Treasury yields somewhat higher. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. percent.”.
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Flying blind, with things about to get much worse, the government responses were: 1) Operation Warp Speed, a commitment to getting a COVID vaccine ready; 2) CARES Act 1, a $2.2 And without those government-ordered mitigation measures, cases and deaths would have surged uncontrollably. Total US death count: 10 or 20 million.
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percent, reaching its lowest level since May 2023, following doveish communication from the Federal Reserve and a weak jobs report, which added to increased concerns of an economy slowing more rapidly than expected,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “As The 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.55
Dr. Rumki Majumdar sees India’s economy showing strong resilience after the election period. The country maintains its position among the world’s fastest-growing large economies. The government actively supports manufacturing sector growth. Moreover, this matches the RBI’s own growth projection of 7.2
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The worries are growing, from a potentially slowing economy, to a growing and more aggressive trade war, to worries over Washington policy. Then five years ago we shut down our economy during a once-a-century pandemic. The economy created 151,000 jobs in February, more or less consistent with expectations.
An overlooked indicator shows the US economy actually grew in the first half of 2022 : Gross domestic income (GDI) showed the economy expanded during the first half of the year. Bloomberg ) see also The NY Fed vs Larry Summers : Some pundits were right on high inflation but for the wrong reasons. Financial Times ). • higher, after a 1.8%
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This has been a unique and (dare I say it) unprecedented set of factors that have sent prices higher despite the intentions of the Federal government and the FOMC. To get back to 2% inflation target, the economy would need some combination of ZIRP, or higher unemployment, or more than a mild recession.
The increase in real GDP reflected increases in private inventory investment , consumer spending, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and exports. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2
(on.ft.com) Longreads Linette Lopez, "China's leader, Xi Jinping, has shifted the CCP's raison d'être to national security over the economy. businessinsider.com) Why governments should focus on subjective well-being. Getting rich isn't China's big project anymore; the project is power."
The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.
People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.
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