Wealth Management

JULY 18, 2023

Do credit spreads provide information on the economy and equity markets?

Economy 246

Economy Marketing Marketing 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

This is how models depict the economy. This is how the economy actually behaves. I think about that calm pond this time of year when the annual Wall Street forecasts for markets and the economy get released. Never confuse opinion marketing with actual, useful information. ~~~ Give thanks this weekend!

Economy 201

Economy Retail Portfolio Assets 201

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 297

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 297

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 264

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 263

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 263

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

and other big firms sent out their calls for 2024, a consensus took shape: After surging more than 20% as artificial intelligence breakthroughs unleashed a tech-stock boom and the economy kept defying the doomsayers, the S&P 500 Index would likely scratch out only a modest gain. So as strategists at Bank of America Corp.,

Banking 346

Banking Planning Economics Investing 346

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 244

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 244

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 245

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 245

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 237

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 237

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 231

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 231

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 225

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 225

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 217

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 217

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 22, 2023

ft.com) Economy The economy is too hot for its own good. (nytimes.com) Why some AI companies rely on Oracle ($ORCL) for compute. theinformation.com) Finance Office loan delinquencies are on the rise. wsj.com) Smaller banks are more exposed to CRE loans than big banks.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Retail Banking Economy 130

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

economy continues to be in a good place. Recent Economic Data Economic growth The economy has been growing at a solid pace. It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy. From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Food Communication 162

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. -- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 189

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 189

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 23, 2025

techcrunch.com) Even institutional investors can't get information on their private equity investments. nytimes.com) Economy The 2-year Treasury and Fed fund rates are trading in line with each other. (howardlindzon.com) Finance MicroStrategy ($MSTR) is the convertible bond king. wsj.com) Ramp is expanding its offerings.

Media 167

Media Economy Portfolio Investing 167

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The team & I put together the most revealing and informative slides. Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. This is atypical.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022

Job Openings: Total Nonfarm : Consider how many jobs remain unfilled today and you have a sense of so many other issues in this economy: Supply chain snarlls, leading to goods shortages, leading to inflation, etc. bottoming in June 1953 at 2.5%. To see wages alone w/o CPI, see this FRED chart). Any suggestions? Share them here.

Economy 332

Economy Insurance Marketing Marketing 332

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 28, 2024

wsj.com) Economy What is the freight industry tell us about the economy? bonddad.blogspot.com) 2024 Q1 GDP nowcasts are trending around 2% (capitalspectator.com) How increased immigration is boosting the economy. abnormalreturns.com) Research links: information and noise. Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter.

Valuation 273

Valuation Financial Advising Startup Media 273

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 27, 2024

axios.com) Economy Home prices are still ticking higher. econbrowser.com) How immigration is helping the economy. wapo.st) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Research links: information and noise. (msn.com) Political ads are coming to your favorite streamer. bonddad.blogspot.com) Apartment rents are a mixed bag.

Advertising 283

Advertising Financial Advising Communication Economy 283

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? However, when we see the economists’ consensus expectations for Federal Reserve cuts in 2023, that informs us this group is expecting not merely a recession but one deep and long-lasting enough to mandate the FOMC has to respond aggressively.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2023

Participants agreed that it would be important to closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy.

Economics 347

Economics Banking Economy Marketing 347

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 27, 2023

investmenttalk.substack.com) The economy is always uncertain. biopharmadive.com) Data How data brokers get your personal information. frontofficesports.com) Economy The U.S. economy is facing any number of headwinds. (bloomberg.com) Cash is not a passive investment.

Financial Advising 240

Financial Advising Economy Education Insurance 240

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 2, 2024

newscientist.com) Economy The July NFP showed a 4.3% fastcompany.com) How investors want to consume information. (engadget.com) GLP-1s Eli Lilly's ($LLY) weight loss drug shortage could end soon. ibj.com) Evidence that GLP-1 drugs can help with a form of heart failure. unemployment rate. Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter.

License 274

License Financial Advising Media Economy 274

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

That are included in that are not new information. Look, this, this is a t tangled, uh, this is a tangled web, uh, that is critically important to, to the economy. Um, and so I, I think in a higher rate environment, if you’re trying to cool the economy, this is always true. We already knew that. The stock market.

Economy 163

Economy Economics Food Banking 163

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 29, 2023

(businessinsider.com) Economy Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.0% carsongroup.com) Anemic wage growth has held back views about the economy. axios.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Longform links: the most informed experts. calculatedriskblog.com) Housing has shifted from a headwind to a tailwind.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Retail Economy Media 245

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2022

The Information ). • Corporate Stagflation Means Rising Sales With Flat Volumes It’s growth, but not healthy growth, and it doesn’t really help the economy. But people with patience and long horizons came out fine. ( New York Times ). Businessweek ).

Economics 305

Economics Economy Sales Banking 305

The Big Picture

MAY 8, 2023

The Doc runs a full battery of tests, and delivers the bad news to the patient: “ Unfortunately, everything is okay… ” And that seems to be the same way many of today’s glass half-empty investors are digesting information about the markets. Is it fair to call today’s investors hypochondriacs? Consider : – Unemployment at 3.4%

Banking 322

Banking Media Marketing Marketing 322

The Big Picture

JULY 5, 2023

In fact, it may be even worse than that, because it appears that some at the Federal Reserve actually believe the Fed’s own survey of consumers contains information. At least, it does not contain valuable information providing insight into future inflation levels. As we have previously shown (repeatedly), it does not.

Economy 307

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 307

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 7, 2023

axios.com) Economy Kyla Scanlon, "People are complex and economics doesn’t (can’t!) stratechery.com) The Information stands out as a digital media success, ten years in. (yahoo.com) Why SpaceX continues to win new launch business. bloomberg.com) Bonds Vanguard is launching new actively managed bond ETFs. take that into consideration."

Digital Media 268

Digital Media Electronics Financial Advising Startup 268

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 20, 2025

morningstar.com) Books Barry Ritholtzs "How Not to Invest" is a 'very informative book about investing that is most importantly a lot of fun.' bloomberg.com) Economy Weekly initial claims remain quiescent. (axios.com) The U.S. stock market is a standout in 2025, and not in a good way. niemanlab.org) NYT Cooking is a standout success.

Startup 130

Startup Media Retail Economy 130