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(taylorlorenz.substack.com) Housing An alternative to the Case-Shiller house price numbers. bloomberg.com) Economy The economy is on hold as everyone tries to figure it out. optimisticallie.com) Manufacturing is a laggard in this economy. bonddad.blogspot.com) Consumer inflation is pretty well anchored.
Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 Flash US Manufacturing PMI at 47.6 The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 October: 48.2). 3-month low.
Manufacturing decreased slightly on net, and a number of Districts said manufacturers were stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. Construction employment increased slightly, while manufacturing employment was flat. Contacts in several service industries, notably healthcare, continued to see job growth.
The TSA screened a record number of passengers on Sunday. sherwood.news) Economy Bubbles often leaving interesting stuff behind. awealthofcommonsense.com) The November ISM manufacturing index remains weak-ish. reuters.com) America loves the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade.
Banking The number of bank branches in the U.S. apolloacademy.com) China has a glut of traditional auto manufacturing plants. bloomberg.com) Economy The housing and manufacturing sectors are both range-bound. bloomberg.com) Economy The housing and manufacturing sectors are both range-bound. peaked in 2012.
Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in November" Both reports and mainstream in general miss the big picture captured in my lead chart. The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. Manufacturing jobs are still strong, at least as reported. hour to 34.4
People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.
And the current S&P Global PMI numbers serve to reinforce the PoV narrative. Manufacturing firms? This is not the same economy as the pre-Covid era. This is the economy of “pushing price” and finding that marginal dollar. That was supposed to be a headwind to the US economy and inflationary pressures.
(marginalrevolution.com) Global Home ownership is out of reach for an increasing number of Australians. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturingeconomy is bumping along. bbc.com) Belarus is complicit in the abduction of Ukrainian children.
The supply side was healing on the supply chain, and there was a big surge of labor force participation from a number of groups. So you got a number of positive supply shocks that are exactly what allowed for the immaculate disinflation, which the people who thought that was impossible use that phrase mockingly. I think number one.
Despite solid employment, we do not expect to see signs of an economy that is overheating. ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® manufacturing employment index increased in 47.4%, up from 45.9% somewhat below consensus.
. • ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® manufacturing employment index decreased in March to 46.9%, down from 49.1% This would suggest about 35,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. last month. last month. .
on.ft.com) Free streaming numbers are moving up and to the right. washingtonpost.com) Economy The economy is on the verge of a manufacturing recession. (wsj.com) The bond market reversal caught a lot of managed futures funds offsides. rcmalternatives.com) Why Treasury bonds are not risk-free.
If anything, it feels like the Fed wants to fight us, all of us, including the stock market and the economy. The Fed is actively trying to crash the stock market, break the housing market and push the economy into a recession. That’s not the case anymore. How do I know this? Wealth of Common Sense ). • New York Times ). •
emphasis added From BofA: Like the broader economy, the labor market is cooling but not cool. ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® manufacturing employment index was at 43.4%, down from 49.3% and 62.6%, respectively. •
amycastor.com) Companies It's hard to wrap your head around the numbers with Nvidia's ($NVDA) new chips. entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy. bloomberg.com) Ukraine is trying to boost its own weapons manufacturing. spyglass.org) This is Apple's ($AAPL) brand promise.
The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.
Fundamental changes are taking place in the labor economy, especially within the service sector. This is most notable in various career choices, ranging from food service to retail to construction and manufacturing. Perhaps a few anecdotes 1 might illuminate this: We tend to cook during the week and go out to eat on weekends.
. • ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® manufacturing employment index increased in April to 50.2%, up from 46.9% This would suggest about 20,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. last month. last month. .
Early Benchmark Methodology Preliminary (not-yet-benchmarked) state employment estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue to be subject to significant revisions around turning points in the economy. Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in November" Both reports and mainstream in general miss the big picture captured in my lead chart.
The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine mhannan Fri, 08/11/2023 - 17:10 Unlike my good friends who frequent Baltimore’s finest dining establishments about as often as the division-leading Orioles win (you know who you are), I would never be confused for a wine connoisseur. was only marginally better.
entrylevel.topdowncharts.com) Strategy Analysts focus on these market numbers, you don't have to. apolloacademy.com) Economy Where manufacturing and construction stand. Markets How major asset classes performed in August 2024. entrylevel.topdowncharts.com) REITs have stopped going down. than Europe.
Previously she was co-head of the bank’s Innovation Economy Group. Alright, so, so you go from public finance, how did you evolve towards co-head of innovation economy? So Barry Ritholtz : Let’s talk about your dual role, your, your co-head of innovation economy and your head of specialized industries.
The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4%
Economic data last week showed the economy slowing more than expected, adding to worries about a potential recession. Monthly nonfarm payrolls came in weak, adding to the worries about the overall strength of the economy. Lower rates could provide a jump to the economy on both fronts.
The number of U.S. job openings in February fell to a 21-month low, while orders for manufactured goods fell for the third time in the past four months. The number of U.S. job openings in February fell to a 21-month low, while orders for manufactured goods fell for the third time in the past four months.
Good Riddance, February The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, and large cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. We continue to think the bull market is alive and well and the economy is on solid footing, but that doesnt mean we wont have scary headlines or worries. Heres the thing.
Carson ) • Don’t believe what anyone says about the economy. Everyone is looking at the same set of numbers and somehow coming to opposite conclusions. Bloomberg ) • Bosses want to pay you more but give you less : A growing number of workers are going freelance, taking higher wages over benefits and job security. ( Including me.
Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. Monthly numbers can be noisy and so a 3-month average is helpful.
Optimism over lower taxes, a stronger economy, animal spirits, and strong earnings all were likely reasons for the surge. The economy created 227,000 jobs in November, close to expectations, which somewhat made up for the low 36,000 number in October (revised up from 12,000). For reference, the 2019 average was 166,000.
May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. We see many clues inflation should continue to slow, including prices paid on manufacturing and services both coming in lower than expected last week, as did unit labor costs after a strong downward revision. What else could spark a stock rally?
is having a hard time keeping up with ammunition manufacturing. theconversation.com) Economy A half point Fed rate hike is again on the table. axios.com) The number of open construction jobs has fallen dramatically. (etf.com) Ukraine Ukraine is turning down the offer of support from Afghan fighters. semafor.com) The U.S.
Craftsman Automation : India is increasingly becoming a focal point for global manufacturing, drawing attention from boardrooms worldwide. Automotive Powertrain In Automotive Powertrain, Craftsman Automation is a top manufacturer of automotive powertrain parts. With a PE ratio of 29.1, compared to the industry’s 33.5,
In other economic news, the NFIB small business survey showed decreasing optimism among small business owners, many of whom have a negative outlook on the economy and expected sales for 2023. Manufacturing production should fall 0.3 Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg. CPI growth falls again.
Semiconductors are components needed for manufacturing cars, televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, personal computers, laptops, mobiles, etc. India was facing an inadequate supply of semiconductor chips in the global market which has severely affected the supply of a number of goods such as cars, laptops, and phones.
Most traded Commodities in The World : Commodities are the basic essential materials of a good economy from which other by-products are manufactured. are required for the production of energy, food, clothing and other required products, that forms the basis of a globally growing economy.
Although many were worried, the economy remained quite strong and odds were high the Fed was done hiking rates. The economy is normalizing, which could loosen tight financial conditions and boost cyclical activity. Monthly job growth numbers can be noisy, and so the three-month average is helpful to review.
While some cracks may be forming, the economy remains on firm footing. Our Leading Economic Indicators Still Point to a Strong Economy A couple of softer-than-expected economic report cards recently came in — first quarter GDP growth and the April payroll report — and suddenly, calls for an impending recession have resumed.
That is more than the economy needs to keep up with population growth. That’s encouraging for consumption and the economy. The Labor Market Is Also Normalizing At the beginning of the year, we labeled our 2023 outlook “The Edge of Normal” as we expected markets and the economy to normalize in 2023.
If tech is removed from the equation, those numbers are estimated to drop approximately three points, putting stocks right in line with historical averages. One reason many claim the stock market is in a bubble is 2023 earnings were barely positive while stocks soared, implying it was all multiple expansion. to 2.1% (real GDP growth).
market for several years, but there are a large number of significant geopolitical and regional matters that are impacting investments all over the globe. Many investors and pundits continue to focus their attention on the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks that have dominated the U.S.
market for several years, but there are a large number of significant geopolitical and regional matters that are impacting investments all over the globe. Many investors and pundits continue to focus their attention on the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks that have dominated the U.S.
Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. The economy ran above trend last year, despite high interest rates. Economy: This Time Was Different, and That’s a Big Deal The U.S. economy grew 5.8% And that is what is happening now.
Looking at the numbers, more good news could be in store for the bulls. As long-time followers of this commentary know, we’ve been quite bullish on both the stock market and the economy for well over a year now. But the odds favor more green numbers. The logical question is: How much is too much? 2024 is off to a strong start.
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