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Monday links: an economy on hold

Abnormal Returns

(taylorlorenz.substack.com) Housing An alternative to the Case-Shiller house price numbers. bloomberg.com) Economy The economy is on hold as everyone tries to figure it out. optimisticallie.com) Manufacturing is a laggard in this economy. bonddad.blogspot.com) Consumer inflation is pretty well anchored.

Economy 278
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US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession

Mish Talk

Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 Flash US Manufacturing PMI at 47.6 The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 October: 48.2). 3-month low.

Economy 290
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Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately"

Calculated Risk

Manufacturing decreased slightly on net, and a number of Districts said manufacturers were stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. Construction employment increased slightly, while manufacturing employment was flat. Contacts in several service industries, notably healthcare, continued to see job growth.

Economics 162
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Monday links: changed communication

Abnormal Returns

The TSA screened a record number of passengers on Sunday. sherwood.news) Economy Bubbles often leaving interesting stuff behind. awealthofcommonsense.com) The November ISM manufacturing index remains weak-ish. reuters.com) America loves the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade.

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Wednesday links: the shelf life of a stock

Abnormal Returns

Banking The number of bank branches in the U.S. apolloacademy.com) China has a glut of traditional auto manufacturing plants. bloomberg.com) Economy The housing and manufacturing sectors are both range-bound. bloomberg.com) Economy The housing and manufacturing sectors are both range-bound. peaked in 2012.

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Another Strong Jobs Report? Phooey, and I Can Prove It

Mish Talk

Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in November" Both reports and mainstream in general miss the big picture captured in my lead chart. The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. Manufacturing jobs are still strong, at least as reported. hour to 34.4

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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246