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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 221
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Thursday links: a wait-and-see approach

Abnormal Returns

hbr.org) Startups SpaceX is doing a tender at a $210 billion valuation. sherwood.news) Can India continue to take share in manufacturing from China? nytimes.com) Economy Continuing unemployment claims are heading higher. (kyla.substack.com) How Starbucks ($SBUX) devalued its brand.

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Wednesday links: an awesome product

Abnormal Returns

marginalrevolution.com) Finance Private equity is stuck between elevated valuations high interest rates and a moribund IPO market. entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy. bloomberg.com) Ukraine is trying to boost its own weapons manufacturing.

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Thursday links: analysts and accountants

Abnormal Returns

allstarcharts.com) What are to make of the big, and persistent, valuation disparities between large and small caps. No matter their manufacturer, nearly all future EVs in America will rely on Tesla." klementoninvesting.substack.com) Economy Q1 2024 GDP came in at 1.6% seeitmarket.com) There's no return without risk.

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Tuesday links: detrimental behavior

Abnormal Returns

investment in semiconductor manufacturing can only do so much. wsj.com) Startups are going to experience a "new normal" valuation-wise. avc.com) SpaceX is raising new capital at a $137 billion valuation. avc.com) SpaceX is raising new capital at a $137 billion valuation. (axios.com) U.S. in 2022 vs. 2021.

Startup 242
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Thursday links: the laws of physics

Abnormal Returns

finance.yahoo.com) Markets Valuations don't matter in the short term. morningstar.com) Economy Any single economic data point is filled with noise. ritholtz.com) Vehicle manufacturing is holding up industrial production. Rates Mortgage rates are at levels not seen since 2001. etf.com) How options income ETFs are marketed.

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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. At the same time, value and international stocks continue to lag, trading as if the economy is already in the depths of a serious recession.

Economics 190