Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 26, 2023

Markets Why aren't stocks down more? bestinterest.blog) 60/40 portfolios Where the valuation of the 60/40 portfolio stands. morningstar.com) Why the 60/40 portfolio endures. vox.com) Economy The U.S. economy grew at a 4.9% theirrelevantinvestor.com) The stock-bond correlation does one thing: it changes. (fa-mag.com)

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Valuation Portfolio Economy 279

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

Around the world, markets lost 5% or worse just last week. Year to date, the S&P 500 is down more than 23%; the Russell 2000 small caps are off more than 26%; Emerging markets are down almost 28%; and the Nasdaq Tech index is off more than 31%. Asset Economy. Portfolio. None whatsoever. Inflation. Federal Reserve.

Asset Allocation 342

Asset Allocation Financial Planning Assets Media 342

Abnormal Returns

JULY 18, 2022

twitter.com) 60/40 Portfolio A reason why the 60/40 portfolio isn't working this time around. morningstar.com) Expected returns on a 60/40 portfolio have risen dramatically. ft.com) Venture capital Some guidelines for valuing a venture capital portfolio including 'Be conservative.'

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Startup Economy Portfolio 246

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 11, 2024

Diversification We are in a 'bear market for diversification.' thinkadvisor.com) What really is the goal of portfolio diversification? axios.com) Economy The U.S. economy is increasingly driven by healthcare spending and employment. blockworks.co) Apple Everything Apple ($AAPL) announced at WWDC.

Financial Advising 267

Financial Advising Retail Healthcare Economy 267

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

This came up yesterday on Portfolio Rescue with Ben Carlson. We talked about how you should think about Wall Street forecasts about the economy. The TL:dr is the short term is too random, and so only serves as marketing for institutional trading firms. I’ve spent a lot of time discussing why forecasts are a waste of time.

Economy 288

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 288

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 4, 2024

Markets Has passive investing really broken the stock market? ft.com) Every market correction doesn't turn into a bear market. Treasury market is set for some big changes. washingtonpost.com) Economy it's not just the U.S. ft.com) Hipgnosis Songs Fund has cut the value of its portfolio by around 25%.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Media Economy Portfolio 265

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 12, 2023

Markets U.S. allstarcharts.com) Strategy What it going to happen to all those assets in money market fund when yields eventually fall? awealthofcommonsense.com) Chances are, you don't need a bespoke portfolio. awealthofcommonsense.com) Chances are, you don't need a bespoke portfolio. theblock.co) Demographics U.S.

Financial Advising 285

Financial Advising Economics Economy Manufacturing 285

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 11, 2023

Markets Every major asset class, except commodities, is set for an up 2023. capitalspectator.com) The drop in bond yields reversed a lot of market trends. ft.com) Triple-levered anything can wreck your portfolio. ft.com) Economy Consumers are finally pushing back against higher prices.

Media 277

Media Financial Advising Retail Economy 277

Abnormal Returns

JULY 14, 2024

Strategy The stock market has changed so much over the past 50 years. awealthofcommonsense.com) Seven reasons you may want to venture away from the market portfolio. investmentecosystem.com) Finance Bank OZK ($OZK) is uniquely exposed to the South Florida real estate market. Human behavior hasn't.

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Economics Media Government 262

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

At least if you do forecasts for market returns over the next decade (lol), you may see incredible similarities. At least, that has been the circumstance of all other decade-long periods where market returns were 3% annually or 1% in real terms. If you are a strategist at Goldman Sachs , then a lot. stocks returning 7.8%

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Economy 326

The Big Picture

APRIL 4, 2024

Investors should be considering capturing some of that yield in their portfolios. We’re going to discuss how these changes are likely to affect your portfolios and what you should do about it. And by keeping that money cheap, they encouraged speculative movements in markets. amongst institutional traders.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Management Assets Economy 162

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 20, 2024

Strategy Ten things to know about building a diversified portfolio. morningstar.com) Real assets can be a portfolio drag during periods of quiescent inflation. marginalrevolution.com) Finance Private equity is stuck between elevated valuations high interest rates and a moribund IPO market.

Financial Advising 254

Financial Advising Startup Valuation Economy 254

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 16, 2022

60/40 portfolios The 60/40 portfolio is having its worse returns in a century. marketwatch.com) Why investors should pay more attention the 40 in a 60/40 portfolio. rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Strategy How market bottoms are made. ritholtz.com) Why you shouldn't make big changes to your portfolio based on economics.

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Portfolio Valuation Economy 242

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

This is how models depict the economy. This is how the economy actually behaves. I think about that calm pond this time of year when the annual Wall Street forecasts for markets and the economy get released. Investors should consider this when they create a portfolio. These reports are aggressive acts of arrogance.

Economy 200

Economy Retail Portfolio Assets 200

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 5, 2024

Markets A look at major asset class returns in 2023. visualcapitalist.com) Strategy How to read all those market and economic forecasts. morningstar.com) A look at different variants of the 60/40 portfolio. etf.com) Economy The December NFP report showed continued payroll growth and a 3.7% unemployment rate.

Financial Advising 273

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 273

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. The rally from those lows were close to a market double by the time we saw the next peak in October 2007.

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

Abnormal Returns

JULY 23, 2024

Markets Small caps have, relative to large caps, seen a lost decade. blockworks.co) What happens when you at Ethererum to a 60/40 portfolio. blockworks.co) What happens when you at Ethererum to a 60/40 portfolio. wsj.com) Economy All things considered the American consumer is in good shape. apolloacademy.com) The U.S.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Retail Media Taxes 279

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 20, 2023

Markets What a 'breakaway momentum thrust' means for investors. ritholtz.com) India's stock market held up well in 2022. wsj.com) Don't let your portfolio be driven by strategist forecasts. theinformation.com) The bloom is off the 'passion economy' rose? ft.com) Economy Existing home sales plunged in December.

Investing 246

Investing Investments Startup Financial Advising 246

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2023

I do a quarterly update for RWM clients that covers the economy, the markets, and our portfolios every three months. It’s broad and is driven in large part by real-time events, along with the questions clients ask.

Clients 311

Clients Economy Portfolio Marketing 311

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 3, 2023

Markets Share buybacks are down some 15% YTD. rcmalternatives.com) The Big Seven It's not surprising that a handful of stocks are driving the market. etf.com) Portfolio managers won't outperform if they get it wrong about the biggest seven stocks. capitalallocators.com) Strategy Market regimes change, whether you like it or not.

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Portfolio Management Economy Media 244

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 9, 2023

klementoninvesting.substack.com) Why are market cap weighted indices hard to beat for managers? axios.com) Venture capital Why more markdowns are coming to venture capital portfolio valuations. news.crunchbase.com) China China's economy is now experiencing deflation. vox.com) David Rubenstein on his Bitcoin regrets.

Financial Advising 238

Financial Advising Economy Valuation Consulting 238

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 12, 2022

The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? The bond market is known for being much smarter than the stock market but we don’t have to go back very far to find a time when it was wrong. The bond market certainly DID NOT see the pandemic-induced inflation coming. ( New York Times ). •

Math 306

Math Economy Communication Economics 306

A Wealth of Common Sense

APRIL 9, 2023

The stock market crashed more than 85% from 1929-1932 during The Great Depression. Millions saw their finances get decimated in that period but for most people it was from the economy getting crushed, not their portfolios. Back then the stock market was a place reserved only for the wealthy and bucket shop speculators.

Marketing 145

Marketing Marketing Economy Portfolio 145

A Wealth of Common Sense

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

How bout a discussion of how should retirees position themselves to protect their portfolio? Us old guys don’t have years to recover from a political sabotage of the markets and the economy. Obviously, the markets don’t seem to care about the debt. A reader asks: Without getting into the politics of throwing the U.S.

Portfolio 121

Portfolio Government Economy Marketing 121

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 11, 2023

Markets How does the 60/40 portfolio perform after big down years? etf.com) Finance Wells Fargo ($WFC) is pulling back from the mortgage origination market. cnn.com) Economy Some additional signs that the economy is rolling over. awealthofcommonsense.com) GMO loves deep value stocks.

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Startup Economy Media 244

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 21, 2024

wsj.com) Strategy The market's most important lessons have to be experienced. microcapclub.com) No portfolio strategy is perfect. npr.org) Economy Why wealth inequality is growing. Rates Allan Sloan, "Don’t fall in love with your money fund." barrons.com) You likely don't need a long-term bond fund.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Taxes Communication Manufacturing 279

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 21, 2024

tker.co) Lessons learned from the two-year bear market. disciplinefunds.com) Crypto A little Bitcoin in your portfolio goes a long way. wsj.com) Citi's ($C) pullback from the muni market is having effects alreayd. theatlantic.com) Economy Americans are pretty happy with their own finances. noahpinion.blog) U.S.

Financial Advising 213

Financial Advising Economy Manufacturing Media 213

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 3, 2023

Markets Should you care what Wall Street strategists have to say about 2024? wsj.com) Strategy Remember all that talk about how the 60/40 portfolio was broken? axios.com) Economy Josh Brown, "The economy ought to be able to heal itself for the most part. nytimes.com) It's easy to load up on cash, harder to put it to work.

Asset Allocation 262

Asset Allocation Financial Advising Startup Economy 262

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 21, 2024

Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Jeffrey Hirsch about how the stock market performs during war. ritholtz.com) Khe Hy talks with Kyla Scanlon about lessons learned from the attention economy. whitecoatinvestor.com) Personal finance Stock picking is not the same thing portfolio managment. In fact, it's a distraction.

Retirement 275

Retirement Retirement Planning Portfolio Management Financial Advisor 275

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Along those lines, here are in chronological order, the thinkers who have helped shape how I view the world view, including how I philosophically think about the economy, markets, and investing. Even most publicly traded stocks are filler, with market returns being driven by a tiny percentage of equities.

Investing 345

Investing Investments Economy Portfolio 345

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: Our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.” – Daniel Kahneman The loss of Danny Kahneman is a reminder that we should review some of his work and apply them to the current market. This was a money-losing set of narratives.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 3, 2023

Strategy The math on the 60/40 portfolio looks a lot different than it did a year ago. washingtonpost.com) Economy The U.S. labor market is slowing. awealthofcommonsense.com) There is a difference between picking and choosing. humbledollar.com) Companies Nvidia ($NVDA) has succeeded with a distributed workforce.

Math 265

Math Financial Advising Advertising Distribution 265

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 22, 2023

Markets The stock market is laser focused on interest rates. theirrelevantinvestor.com) Do market valuations mean revert over time? thediff.co) Why there's never a shortage of pundits willing to make a big market call. ft.com) It's hard to find much that is going well for the Chinese economy.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Valuation Retail Media 246

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

‘We must keep at it until the job is done.’ ( Wall Street Journal ) see also The “Data-Dependent” Fed and the Data Interpreting the mixed signals across the economy, with a focus on inflation, jobs, and market pricing. ( The Overshoot ). Were Those Great Returns the Result of Skill — or Just Luck? Of Dollars And Data ). •

Financial Advice 288

Financial Advice Engineering Economy Management 288

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 4, 2023

Markets The stock market hates rising inflation. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) The 60/40 portfolio was supposed to be dead. marketwatch.com) Strategy Owning an index means you will own the market's biggest winners. statnews.com) Economy Economic data doesn't move in straight lines. The future not so much.

Financial Advising 241

Financial Advising Startup Banking Economy 241

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 2, 2023

Strategy Your investment strategy needs to work in all markets. awealthofcommonsense.com) How to dole out risk in your portfolio. nytimes.com) Regional banks are a linchpin for the economy. nytimes.com) Why banks resist mark-to-market accounting rules. humbledollar.com) AI is going to change just about every industry.

Financial Advising 240

Financial Advising Banking Economy Insurance 240