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As Paul Krugman recently wrote on his excellent Substack , using a chart identical to the one immediately above (Paul used FRED ): “People may imagine that government is a bigger part of the economy than it is because of all the money we spend supporting retired Americans, covering their health bills, and so on [Chart 1].
Morgan Housel Finance types tend to focus on attributes like intelligence, math skills and computer programming. You can know everything about math and data and markets, but if you don’t control your sense of greed and fear and you’re managing uncertainty in your behavior, none of it matters. None of it matters.
Tom Fridrich, JD, CLU, ChFC ® , Senior Wealth Planner We’ve all asked ourselves whether it’s too early to retire (usually after a particularly challenging commute or dealing with a difficult client). But even if you feel confident today, would it be reasonable to retire early? How Early Is Early?
But this chart is interesting because the discrepancy has a fundamental impact on the future of home prices and the economy. If you adjust it for only the working age and retired population then inventory is even higher. And that’s where the math on renting comes into play. People have to live somewhere.
My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. If you’re depending on income to fund your retirement, 5% rates are a blessing. Sapient Capital ) • If the U.S.
The value of the S&P 500 index of stocks, where most of us hopefully have a good chunk of our retirement savings stashed into index funds, is up about fifty seven percent in just the past two years. Does this make it more vulnerable to a huge crash in the future, and will it affect my retirement? Its just basic math.
In fact, because QE reduces interest income it might have a marginally deflationary impact on the economy, all else equal. Interest rates are different and have a much more meaningful impact on the economy by damaging banks and credit markets. Not nothing, but certainly not enough to move the needle of a $30T economy.
This is because consumers become concerned about the economy or have lost their jobs and means of income. Recession-proof businesses are usually in industries that are not severely impacted by a decline in the economy. Here are 14 good businesses to start in a bad economy: 1. What does a recession mean? Baby products.
ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing.
I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. BITTERLY MICHELL: … obviously, the United States, the global economy. BITTERLY MICHELL: … difficult situations for those who were retiring, right, and those …. I love statistics.
Let Mr. Market do his thing and we’ll find out how we did when we get ready to retire. NADIG: So the reason is because, you know, when we look at how the corporate economy works, there are investments that you have to make. I read all those academic papers, I understand where the math comes from. It’s how math works.
And just to amplify everything even further, China has launched a batshit crazy (and medically impossible) “zero covid” policy, locking down hundreds of millions of its own people who can no longer produce or export the things that the rest of the world’s economy had grown to rely upon. Everything else is just silly noise.
With the economy reeling from the impact of the most recent pandemic and racial injustice at the forefront of many conversations, we cannot ignore the student loan crisis and its impact on black women. The math for this adds up over years of work and can cost quite a bit of income. The student debt crisis is part of that.
I’m good at math and science and you know, I always had an idea what go into business, but I felt that electrical engineering would be a good foundation. I mean, think about the deficits we, we have when it’s pretty much full employment, economy’s still pretty strong. 00:02:16 [Speaker Changed] Me too.
You can become a tutor in almost any subject, but science and math are two of the most profitable niches. Food or Package Delivery The gig economy has revolutionized everything from how we order food to the way we get around. Tutoring Tutoring is one of the best strategies for helping children who are struggling with their schoolwork.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. There’s a continual, the economy continues to grow. It goes so far. Did you give me cash?
It has to be such a different set, the retirement planning is different, the safety net is different. People in Spain when I was growing up in the ‘80s and ‘90s, they expect to just retire and have the government give them like a paycheck every month. So a phenomenal learning experience with both Jefferies and Morgan Stanley.
One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics. So people really ask you, you take French and can you do math. So I applied to Maryland State retirement.
And when you saw the US Ag down 13% last year, for folks, again, who are investing for retirement and in their 529 plans, they’re not concerned about it. But when you translate that to folks who might have a heavy municipal bond portfolio, and those folks who are in retirement, and they don’t like principal losses.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. And that a bit of that cult, Dick and Ike are both retired now. And I very much get the sense he has no interest in retiring. Learn math, learn history.
I don’t even know what it’s going to be yet, but I mean, I’m not retiring. I mean, if you take out the government spending, you probably are on a recession in a private economy. And that’s your focus on government, both fiscal and monetary support for the economy. So that’s the math.
Anyone with an Internet connection can participate in the cryptocurrency economy. When a miner is first to succeed in solving the complex math to process a new block of transactions, that person is rewarded with the transaction fees from recent users and newly minted bitcoin. Can Beginners Invest in Bitcoin?
My dad was a naval officer who retired shortly before I was born. What did your dad retire from doing? He retired and went to work at the Library of Congress as personnel. RITHOLTZ: Why is it not surprising that a math nerd is also a placekicker? Tell us about those experiences. So my dad is actually from Mississippi.
You might choose to create multiple savings buckets for different purposes, some of them as sinking funds and others as retirement income. These numbers won’t be exact, as they’re subject to changes in the economy and other factors. It’s definitely possible that you’d pick more than one of these savings goals to focus on.
Following the financial crisis and the Fed cutting rates, economy and the market starts recovering in late 2009 and then 2010 and we kept hearing from a lot of different value corners, hey, everything is richly priced. There’s old and there’s old but there’s not both. Bonds are the most expensive. RITHOLTZ: Right.
And at the time when I graduated the economy, it was very good. So the fact that I had a sociology degree really didn’t impede, I think getting into business Barry Ritholtz : And you end up in like what some would think of as kind of a dry, legalistic part of Fidelity, the ERISA Division, which focuses on retirement accounts.
The idea of passive income is to supplement, augment or get you out of your job so you can retire, travel, or spend more time with loved ones. Thanks to the likes of Airbnb and others, these sharing economy services have shown us it’s not so scary! Passive Income is all about protecting your time. What Passive Income is not.
I will say when there were fewer firms, I was effectively — there had Ted and Nick Forstmann, Brian little had retired from the firm. So I mean, in ’07 and ’08, you know, what killed the economy in ’07 and ‘08 were mortgages going down. RITHOLTZ: So it’s different math then I need 100x winner versus 99?
And why did Congress just vote to block President Biden’s Department of Labor rule, a rule that encourages private retirement fiduciary is to use ESG in the decision-making process? When it comes to retirement, we’re talking about people’s life savings and quality of life in their golden years. Do the Math!
So I decided to take some action, by doing the math for myself using a spreadsheet. And as you scale up the operation, some economies of scale on things like space and equipment make it even better. I am guessing that you might feel the same way these days – most of us Americans are in the same boat. Conclusion.
We’re serving family offices, we’re serving institutions, we’ve done acquisitions in, in the stock plan businesses, in the retirement businesses. They want a financial plan, they want some advice, they want to think about whether it’s saving for a home or college or, or retirement. We have a very robust economy.
Jan 10, 2023 The California Public Employees’ Retirement System is making a $1Bn wager that small private equity firms can boost the pension giant’s returns and clout [link] CALPERS has a knack for being late… adding money to two small private equity shops now? It is the opposite, except in the top decile.
So, I did the math, 20 million times a hundred. So, let me just repeat the math. And so, again, I went through this simple math. And this guy, you know, there’s no mandatory retirement age for a federal judge and we got in front of this guy and he didn’t understand. How many do you have in your fleet?
I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math. Your real business is having the best perspective of what is happening this moment in the economy. 00:19:54 [Speaker Changed] So you retired if it’s not working and you move on to the next that. So at that point, I had a pretty big career.
It’ll reduce new company formation, it’ll make us borrowing costs skyrocket, it’ll devalue the US dollar, it’s gonna cause rampant inflation and it will act as a drag on the overall economy. Wasn’t the Excel spreadsheet error, which changed their math. And their economy seems to be doing just fine.
But within a year and a half I retired all our hedge fund business because I could see the capital inflows going into the private markets opportunity. The interlinkages between women, our education policy, labor force, productivity, and again, ultimately the growth of the economy. That was the right call to make. Fascinating.
The median retirement account balance of people ages 56 to 61 is just $25,000. Whatever else happened, retired policemen and firefighters and teachers would be paid. workers participate in an employer-sponsored retirement plan. ( The Atlantic asks Are Stock Buybacks Starving the Economy ? That is no longer the case."
If you are at all interested in fixed income, how you assess bonds, how you evaluate the economy, the market, what the fed’s gonna do, what clients want, how to assess risk in credit markets, well then you are gonna really enjoy this conversation. That’s where the economy was at that point. But those guys are great, right?
RITHOLTZ: So 5% funds rate, what does that do to the economy? I’ve just been a little bit surprised that the Fed, etcetera, has not been trying to address this because how has it become so vigorous on pressing monetary policy when it — well, what is really happening in the real economy? SIEGEL: Yeah. So two questions.
MORGENSON: And so you have pensioners at Bristol-Myers or Lockheed or Coors is another who are really relying on private equity to do the right thing for their pensions going forward, for their retirement, for their payouts when they need them. So corporate pensions that gave a worker a reasonable shot at a prosperous retirement.
I went there because I was fearful that being a professor would be like retiring in your 20s. So if you think the economy’s going to go sour and then you learn that’s not true, you might well be extremely credulous, meaning willing to believe the happy thing, even though it’s disconfirming of your belief.
As always, I lead with Wall Street, the markets, and the economy, the objects of my day job. For example, Michael Moore, famous for being one of the few people who predicted Donald Trump’s election win in 2016, confidently declared that Mr. Trump would not win again in 2024 ( Do The Math: Trump Is Toast ). Happy Retirement, Paul!
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