The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. The post Collapse in Prospective Home Buyer Traffic appeared first on The Big Picture.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

nytimes.com) The number of Americans earning the minimum wage keeps shrinking. ft.com) Economy The case for the Fed to cut rates. wsj.com) How the post-pandemic economy is messing with the Sahm Rule. (wsj.com) As small towns empty out, it gets more difficult to maintain services. wsj.com) In praise of the public pool.

License 290

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 290

Abnormal Returns

MAY 8, 2024

wsj.com) ETFs The number of single-stock ETFs is growing. blog.johnwallstreet.com) Economy Bank credit is still tight. (carsongroup.com) Measures of corporate sentiment are ticking higher. wsj.com) Good performance need not equal AUM. etf.com) Sports business Sports betting companies are looking for new ways to get your money.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Media Economy Banking 279

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 18, 2024

economist.com) The German economy is stuck in the mud. semafor.com) In 2023 France had the fewest number of births since World War II. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Economy The 'Sahm rule' is not going to trigger any time soon. (ft.com) Global The countries that first started raising interest rates are now cutting.

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Economy Media Numbers 263

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 24, 2024

Banking The number of bank branches in the U.S. bloomberg.com) Economy The housing and manufacturing sectors are both range-bound. peaked in 2012. sherwood.news) Where SVB's business stands as JP Morgan ($JPM) looks to make inroads. bloomberg.com) ETFs Where active ETFs are growing fastest.

Financial Advising 276

Financial Advising Manufacturing Media Retail 276

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 18, 2024

economist.com) An increasing number of houses in Japan have been abandoned. asia.nikkei.com) Economy Industrial production rose smartly in May. (caia.org) Apple ($AAPL) is discontinuing Apple Pay Later. 9to5mac.com) Global Higher interest rates are not putting a lid on global home prices.

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Financial Advising Media Assets Economy 299

Abnormal Returns

MAY 17, 2024

allstarcharts.com) Strategy Big round numbers don't matter unless you hold on. openvc.app) Economy Q2 2024 GDP is tracking in the mid-2%s. Markets Utility stocks are having a moment. barrons.com) Bonds seem to have bottomed. theirrelevantinvestor.com) There are two approaches to investing. theinformation.com) VCs aren't your friends.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 265

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

(marginalrevolution.com) Global Home ownership is out of reach for an increasing number of Australians. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturing economy is bumping along. bbc.com) Belarus is complicit in the abduction of Ukrainian children.

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Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 285

The Big Picture

APRIL 21, 2023

And the current S&P Global PMI numbers serve to reinforce the PoV narrative. This is not the same economy as the pre-Covid era. This is the economy of “pushing price” and finding that marginal dollar. That was supposed to be a headwind to the US economy and inflationary pressures. Manufacturing firms? Pushing price.

Economy 328

Economy Banking Manufacturing Management 328

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

theringer.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023. stayathomemacro.substack.com) How the current post-Covid economy resembles the post-WWII economy. crr.bc.edu) The U.S.

Assets 272

Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 272

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 23, 2024

theringer.com) Economy Some bad news on the inflation front. disciplinefunds.com) How survey methods affected the University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers. (spyglass.org) Why more theaters are turning to old movies. bloomberg.com) What the bond vigilantes get wrong.

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Pharmaceutical Financial Advising Media Economy 285

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 21, 2024

ritholtz.com) Khe Hy talks with Kyla Scanlon about lessons learned from the attention economy. morningstar.com) People work in retirement for any number of reasons. wsj.com) An increasing number of retirees feel 'trapped' in their Medicare Advantage plans. Rowe Price about non-financial considerations in retirement.

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Retirement Retirement Planning Portfolio Management Financial Advisor 275

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) Retailing Why retail workers are quitting in record numbers. wsj.com) A record number of apartments are under construction. calculatedriskblog.com) Economy Q3 GDP is tracking at 3% growth. (morningstar.com) What investors get wrong about the 'Yale Model.'

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Retail Numbers Media 279

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 11, 2023

nytimes.com) Zeke Faux's "Number Go Up" isn't really a book about crypto. ft.com) Economy Consumers are finally pushing back against higher prices. econbrowser.com) If you are looking for signs of weakness in the economy, here they are. (capitalspectator.com) The drop in bond yields reversed a lot of market trends.

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Media Financial Advising Retail Economy 277

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 20, 2024

global-macro-monitor.com) Economy The economy is still adjusting to the realities of a post-Covid landscape. nytimes.com) The number of real estate brokers is in decline. (apolloacademy.com) Russia is going to great lengths to track down army deserters. wsj.com) Chinese foreign lending has slowed dramatically. axios.com)

Financial Advising 256

Financial Advising Media Economy Banking 256

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

Strategy No matter how you spin the numbers, day trading is a losing proposition. washingtonpost.com) Economy Q3 GDP is tracking around 3% growth. morningstar.com) Companies Tupperware ($TUP) has filed for Chapter 11. alchemy.substack.com) 23andMe's ($ME) independent board members have resigned.

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Investing Investments Financial Advising Media 254

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 2, 2024

axios.com) Tesla's ($TSLA) inventory numbers are on the rise. bloomberg.com) Economy Justin Wolfers, "Psychologists describe anxiety disorders as occurring when the panic you feel is out of proportion to the danger you face. Markets The VIX and credit spreads are both near multi-year lows.

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Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 278

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 27, 2023

If I had to describe the economy using one word, I would use “strong.” I know it can be tough to believe that, with all the doom and gloom you see in the media, but the numbers speak for themselves." (youngmoney.co) Kyla Scanlon, "Rather than ridicule new generations for questioning the status quo, we should empower them to redefine it."

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Media Financial Advising Economy Numbers 278

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 24, 2023

blockworks.co) Five insights from Zeke Faux's "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." bloomberg.com) Global Germany's economy has badly lagged since the pandemic. frontofficesports.com) Economy Why economists have gotten the post-pandemic economy so wrong. ft.com) Xi has chosen control over growth.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Economy Media Numbers 265

A Wealth of Common Sense

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

And that number is probably understating things since many of the biggest companies aren’t technically in the tech sector. Technology stocks make up nearly 24% of the S&P 500. Amazon and Tesla are two of the biggest holdings in the consumer discretionary sector. Facebook, Google and Netflix are in the communications sector.

Economy 145

Economy Communication Numbers Marketing 145

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 14, 2024

washingtonpost.com) The number of American centenarians is set to quadruple. papers.ssrn.com) Economy People have nostalgia for a time that never existed. (vox.com) Threats of violence against elected officials and government officials are on the rise. pewresearch.org) Who get theirs rough roads repaved?

Financial Advising 290

Financial Advising Engineering Food Economics 290

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 30, 2023

ritholtz.com) ETFs 2023 is on track for a record number of ETF closures. ft.com) Economy The labor market is not all that tight. (ft.com) Generating alpha is more than just stock selection. flyoverstocks.com) Who is to blame for the behavior gap? wsj.com) The SEC's logic in the Grayscale case was flawed.

Financial Advising 260

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 260

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

And there’s a fair number of people who say 70%, two thirds of the stock market without any risk at all, market risk that is – sign me up for that. It’s a number that’s put out every Thursday for the previous week. That is, over the last 50 years, an extraordinarily low number. It’s a state program.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

(wapo.st) Why is Apple ($AAPL) publicly touting its Apple Card spending numbers? blog.johnwallstreet.com) Economy The labor market continues to soften. spyglass.org) Sports The PGA Tour just scored a big, non-Saudi, investment. axios.com) The Baltimore Orioles are reportedly changing hands.

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Media Economy Accounting 263

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? The economy, corporate revenues, earnings, and consumer spending are to some degree path dependent. We don’t make investments based on forecasts, and any number of random surprises could make the economy appreciably better or worse.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 25, 2024

morningstar.com) Economy Mortgage refinancing applications are on the rise. sherwood.news) The number of existing homes for sales keeps rising. (morningstar.com) The Texas Capital Government Money Market ETF ($MMKT) has launched. (fa-mag.com) fa-mag.com) A lot of active ETFs have launched, not many will survive.

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Math Financial Advising Government Media 268

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in November" Both reports and mainstream in general miss the big picture captured in my lead chart. The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. Full time employment is down 398,000 since March and down by 480,000 since May!

Manufacturing 327

Manufacturing Retirement Numbers Economics 327

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 13, 2024

(mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Apple New Apple ($AAPL) features could 'Sherlock' a number of third party apps. ft.com) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims are clearly headed higher. techcrunch.com) New features coming to iOS 18, not including AI. wsj.com) The top features coming to MacOS Sequoia.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Food Media Economy 265

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 27, 2023

investmenttalk.substack.com) The economy is always uncertain. frontofficesports.com) Economy The U.S. economy is facing any number of headwinds. (bloomberg.com) Cash is not a passive investment. disciplinefunds.com) Attention The stock market regularly hypes up new market narratives.

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Financial Advising Economy Education Insurance 240

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 20, 2024

amycastor.com) Companies It's hard to wrap your head around the numbers with Nvidia's ($NVDA) new chips. entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy. reuters.com) Economy By any reasonable measure, the average American is better off economically than they were four years ago.

Financial Advising 254

Financial Advising Startup Valuation Economy 254

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

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Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 8, 2023

That is a significant number to recall whenever people posit we either are in, or just were in, or are about to tumble into a recession. but most months, the specific number is more or less a rounding error. It was that 157.087 million people are employed full-time in the United States.1 This is not a popular opinion.

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Numbers Retirement Economy Accounting 264

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Together they paint a fascinating picture of an economy robust enough to withstand the fastest set of rate increases in history, but also one that is showing signs of slowing. I have been putting together my Q2 quarterly client call, and impatiently waiting for two last data points to show: State Coincident Indicators and Q1 GDP.

Economy 304

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 304

Abnormal Returns

JULY 18, 2022

wired.com) Global Covid and the war in Ukraine remain as two big wild cards for the global economy. nytimes.com) Covid did a number on global childhood vaccinations. npr.org) Economy The story of the economy is inflation, inflation and inflation. (protocol.com) The rapid grocery startup space is in full retreat.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Startup Economy Portfolio 246

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

To prove their point, a number of friendly commentators, academics, and hired guns all wrote endless white papers, Op-Eds and commentaries. But they made one super-sized mistake: they cheated with the numbers. Economies are extremely dynamic, ever-changing on a day-to-day basis. . ~~~ A few final thoughts.

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Food Math Numbers Economics 260

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

. • The Market’s Peak Inflation Story Fights the Fed : There’s no sign the Fed will change its mind and agree that rates should come down again next year ( Wall Street Journal ) see also The Fed Might Just Break the Global Economy : The real stress is in the energy-supply system to certain parts of the world, notably Europe. Intelligencer ).

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Insurance Economy Numbers Marketing 286