Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 6th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 343

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 343

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of September 25th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 345

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 345

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

To prove their point, a number of friendly commentators, academics, and hired guns all wrote endless white papers, Op-Eds and commentaries. But they made one super-sized mistake: they cheated with the numbers. Economies are extremely dynamic, ever-changing on a day-to-day basis. . ~~~ A few final thoughts.

Food 307

Food Math Numbers Economics 307

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Comments “Business conditions across the US worsened in November, according to the preliminary PMI survey findings, with output and demand falling at increased rates, consistent with the economy contracting at an annualized rate of 1%.”

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

MARCH 11, 2025

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. The number of job openings (black) were down 9% year-over-year. million in January , the U.S.

Numbers 165

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 165

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of August 21st. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 297

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 297

Calculated Risk

APRIL 15, 2025

There will be plenty of "gray hairs" walking around in 2030, but the key for the economy is the large cohorts in the prime working age. There are still a number of younger Boomers in their early-to-mid 60s. In 2024, the top 6 cohorts were under 45 (the Boomers are fading away), and by 2030 the top 7 cohorts will be under 50.

Economy 207

Economy Numbers 207

Clever Girl Finance

APRIL 22, 2025

But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. Lets dive into 15 of the best recession-proof business ideas you can start today, even in a bad economy. This is because consumers become concerned about the economy or have lost their jobs and means of income.

Economy 80

Economy Food Healthcare Economics 80

The Big Picture

MARCH 24, 2025

As Paul Krugman recently wrote on his excellent Substack , using a chart identical to the one immediately above (Paul used FRED ): “People may imagine that government is a bigger part of the economy than it is because of all the money we spend supporting retired Americans, covering their health bills, and so on [Chart 1].

Government 310

Government Investments Investing Economy 310

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 9.6 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 6.1 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.9

Numbers 361

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 361

Calculated Risk

JUNE 4, 2024

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 Over the month, both the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.4

Numbers 331

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 23rd. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2025

Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors, said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. emphasis added This was above the consensus forecast of 119,000.

Economy 130

Economy Numbers 130

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 30th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 4, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 10.5 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.1 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.9

Numbers 356

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 356

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings increased to 10.7 The number of hires edged down to 6.1 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. The number of job openings (black) were up slightly year-over-year.

Numbers 354

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 354

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of August 28th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 263

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 263

Calculated Risk

MARCH 8, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 10.8 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.4 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.9

Numbers 349

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 349

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2023

The more an area is dependent on housing, the larger the negative impact on the local economy will be. So I think some pundits have it backwards: Instead of a strong local economy keeping housing afloat, I think the bursting housing bubble will significantly impact housing dependent local economies.

Economy 339

Economy Numbers 339

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 3, 2024

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary the number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 The number of total separations was little changed at 5.3 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Numbers 147

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 13th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

MAY 31, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings edged up to 10.1 Over the month, the number of hires changed little at 6.1 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Numbers 333

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 333

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 15th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 244

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 244

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

It has been interesting watching these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 25th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 4th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? Job losses in construction haven't started yet because a record number of housing units are under construction. If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 8th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of August 14th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 245

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 245

Calculated Risk

JULY 6, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 9.8 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 6.2 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.9

Numbers 328

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 328

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2022

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 10.1 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. The number of job openings (black) were down 5% year-over-year. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Numbers 335

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 335

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of July 24th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 27th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 237

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 237

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

arstechnica.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks Gen Z with Kyla Scanlon, author of "In This Economy?: larrykotlikoff.substack.com) Finance Scott Galloway talks with Barry Ritholtz about his new book "How Not to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors That Destroy Wealth - and How to Avoid Them."

Budgeting 144

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 144

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 30, 2024

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 9.0 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.4

Numbers 311

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 311

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 18th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 231

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 231

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 11th. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 225

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 225

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 2, 2024

The TSA screened a record number of passengers on Sunday. sherwood.news) Economy Bubbles often leaving interesting stuff behind. (axios.com) Robinhood ($HOOD) is now taking on Charles Schwab ($SCHW) and Fidelity. barrons.com) Boom! reuters.com) America loves the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade.

Communication 157

Communication Manufacturing Media Banking 157