Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of August 21st. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 295

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 295

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Manufacturing decreased slightly on net, and a number of Districts said manufacturers were stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs.

Economics 159

Economics Manufacturing Nonprofit Transportation 159

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 23rd. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 30th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 263

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 263

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. I also look at the yield curve, but I've found new home sales is generally more useful.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 9, 2022

Back in early 2009, I wrote a couple of posts arguing there would be an increase in auto sales - Vehicle Sales (Jan 2009) and Looking for the Sun (Feb 2009). This was an out-of-the-consensus call and helped me call the bottom for the US economy in mid-2009. This graph shows the total number of registered vehicles in the U.S.

Sales 207

Sales Numbers Economy 207

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of August 28th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 261

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 261

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 234

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 234

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. I also look at the yield curve, but I've found new home sales is generally more useful.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 13th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 15th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 244

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 244

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

It has been interesting watching these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 25th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 4th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 1st.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 8th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of August 14th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 245

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 245

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of July 24th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 27th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 237

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 237

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 18th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 231

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 231

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 23, 2024

(ft.com) EVs EVs made up 8% of sales in Q2. fastcompany.com) Economy It's hard not to argue the economy is weakening. disciplinefunds.com) Jobs numbers get revised all the time. coxautoinc.com) Ford ($F) is backtracking on big EV SUVs and doubling down on hybrids.

Financial Advising 261

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 261

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 11th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 225

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 225

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 20th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 216

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 216

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. The post Collapse in Prospective Home Buyer Traffic appeared first on The Big Picture.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 2nd. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 187

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 187

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 25, 2024

morningstar.com) Economy Mortgage refinancing applications are on the rise. sherwood.news) The number of existing homes for sales keeps rising. (morningstar.com) The Texas Capital Government Money Market ETF ($MMKT) has launched. (fa-mag.com) fa-mag.com) A lot of active ETFs have launched, not many will survive.

Math 265

Math Financial Advising Government Media 265

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. Frozen Market The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports Existing-Home Sales Slumped 7.7% Frozen Market The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports Existing-Home Sales Slumped 7.7% Sales slipped 7.7% Existing Home Sales Supply.

Sales 167

Sales Economics Retail Accounting 167

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

(theverge.com) Ozempic accounted for 41% of Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) total sales in 2023. wapo.st) Why is Apple ($AAPL) publicly touting its Apple Card spending numbers? blog.johnwallstreet.com) Economy The labor market continues to soften. spyglass.org) Sports The PGA Tour just scored a big, non-Saudi, investment.

Financial Advising 261

Financial Advising Media Accounting Economy 261

Abnormal Returns

MAY 21, 2023

washingtonpost.com) Economy American consumer behavior is normalizing. tker.co) The mix of light vehicle sales keeps shifting toward pickups and SUVs. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media A growing number of New York City office buildings are emptying out. noahpinion.blog) The NBA is a model for immigration policy.

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Startup Taxes Financial Services 242

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? We have already seen a massive slowdown in home sales. The economy, corporate revenues, earnings, and consumer spending are to some degree path dependent. Here are five of those questions: 1. The trillion-dollar question.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

The supply side was healing on the supply chain, and there was a big surge of labor force participation from a number of groups. So you got a number of positive supply shocks that are exactly what allowed for the immaculate disinflation, which the people who thought that was impossible use that phrase mockingly. I think number one.

Economy 163

Economy Economics Food Banking 163

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. Rather than accept their fate, Americans used free money offered by the private unregulated banking system in the form of Home Sales, HELOCs, and Refinancings.

Medicine 332

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 332

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. wsj.com) Sketchy products keep showing up for sale on Amazon ($AMZN). theatlantic.com) Economy Menzie Chinn, "Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet."

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. This appears to include some pending sales and doesn’t match some other measures of inventory (Altos and Realtor.com). How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022? "My

Economics 282

Economics Sales Banking Economy 282

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2023

Here is their weekly report from economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending July 1, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 2%. New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 21% from one year ago.

Sales 179

Sales Numbers Economy Marketing 179

Nerd's Eye View

MAY 22, 2024

Further, critics of non-compete agreements argue that they restrict dynamism in the overall economy by making it harder for businesses to hire (as the pool of applicants will be smaller in industries where non-competes are prevalent ), and for employees subject to non-competes to start new companies.

Financial Advice 246

Financial Advice Commission Clients Financial Advisor 246

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

Watch Rapport (link omitted on purpose) has every Rollie for sale up for pre-order at MSRP. I find it hard to believe something that obvious is the play, so I call the number listed at their Facebook account: (800) 571-7765. Sounds pretty good right? Maybe, a little too good? . Of note: Delivery within 180 Days.

Retail 332

Retail Accounting Economy Numbers 332

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Methodology Preliminary (not-yet-benchmarked) state employment estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue to be subject to significant revisions around turning points in the economy. Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in November" Both reports and mainstream in general miss the big picture captured in my lead chart.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361