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Q4 GDP Tracking: Mid 2% Range

Calculated Risk

economy is performing. economy, its performance has been very good." From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 4Q GDP tracker with the October retail sales print and Oct industrial production and Sep business inventories. Fed Chair Powell, Nov 7, 2024: "It's actually remarkable how strong the U.S. percent on November 5.

Retail 260
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Ripples in the Pond

The Big Picture

This is how models depict the economy. This is how the economy actually behaves. I think about that calm pond this time of year when the annual Wall Street forecasts for markets and the economy get released. The result will be very predictable: concentric rings will expand out from where the mass disrupts the calm surface.

Economy 200
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Monday links: defining points in history

Abnormal Returns

propublica.org) Economy Retail sales are decelerating. calculatedriskblog.com) More signs the economy is weakening. (paulkrugman.substack.com) The U.S. has halted efforts to clean up Agent Orange in Vietnam. bonddad.blogspot.com) National home builder confidence fell in March.

Media 195
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Retail as a Service

The Big Picture

I want to float a new concept to CRE owners: Retail as a Service (RaaS). Not just the upper floors that tenants rented, but the ground floor retail as well.2 A fully occupied office tower could be counted on to provide enough foot traffic to support a retail store, coffee shop or restaurant.

Retail 195
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Tuesday links: ignoring the noise

Abnormal Returns

bloomberg.com) Retail Vinted wants to become the Amazon of secondhand. theatlantic.com) Economy Outside of shelter, inflation is still pretty quiescent. capitalspectator.com) Ten susprising facts about the labor economy including 'Work continues to untether from the workplace.' wsj.com) You can now buy a car on Amazon ($AMZN).

Retail 147
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MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024

Calculated Risk

However, despite the current conditions, other property types continue to benefit from a relatively strong economy. The share of loans that were delinquent increased for some property types, particularly office, lodging, retail, and multifamily. Click on graph for larger image. Delinquencies decreased for industrial properties.

Retail 147
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Thursday links: a brutal truth

Abnormal Returns

(finance.yahoo.com) Why Bridgewater Associates is teaming with SSGA to target retail investors. wired.com) Economy Heavy truck sales increased in November. riabiz.com) ESPN Do Disney+ users really want ESPN content in their feeds? spyglass.org) The launch of ESPN 45 years really was a long shot.

Retail 182