Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $194 million last week, down about 29% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through July 28th.

Economy 360

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 360

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $151 million last week, down about 40% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 4th.

Economy 351

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 351

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $78 million last week, down about 53% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 1st.

Economy 351

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 351

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $91 million last week, down about 39% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 3rd.

Economy 343

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 343

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $71 million last week, down about 52% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 22nd.

Economy 345

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 345

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 4, 2024

Sales of farm equipment were a notable headwind to overall investment activity, and several contacts expressed concerns about the future prices of equipment given ongoing weakness in the farm economy. Capital spending and purchases of raw materials were flat or declining in most Districts.

Economics 278

Economics Economy Sales Investments 278

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021.

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investments 278

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

With the exception of the early stages of the pandemic, the decrease in total new sales was the sharpest since 2009. November even saw increasing numbers of suppliers, factories and service providers offering discounts to help boost flagging sales.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

MARCH 23, 2023

Light-Vehicle Sales, Inventory Pegged for Solid Gains; First-Quarter Deliveries to Rise 7% (pay content). Brief excerpt: Though gradually improving, inventory remains the story behind why sales remain low by historical standards. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for March (Red).

Sales 237

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 237

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December. The BEA estimates sales of 13.31 from the November sales rate, and up 4.7% The first graph shows annual sales since 1976. Light vehicle sales in 2022 were at 13.73 Light vehicle sales in 2022 were at 13.73 Sales were decent in December.

Sales 237

Sales Economy 237

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2025

propublica.org) Economy Retail sales are decelerating. calculatedriskblog.com) More signs the economy is weakening. (paulkrugman.substack.com) The U.S. has halted efforts to clean up Agent Orange in Vietnam. bonddad.blogspot.com) National home builder confidence fell in March.

Media 195

Media Retail Economy Management 195

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Dropped 2.0% in August Pending home sales sagged for the third straight month in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 2.0% The Northeast PHSI decreased 3.4%

Sales 245

Sales Economy 245

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AUGUST 22, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $99 million last week, down about 54% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 18th.

Economy 297

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 297

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

Light-Vehicle Sales to Slow from Prior Month; Still Point to Stronger Q4 (pay content). This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for November (Red). million SAAR, would be down 3% from last month, but up 11% from a year ago (sales weakened in the second half of 2021, due to supply chain issues).

Sales 244

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 244

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. I also look at the yield curve, but I've found new home sales is generally more useful.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 27, 2024

msn.com) How big a disappointment are Apple ($AAPL) VIsion Pro sales? statnews.com) Economy Where does economic growth come from? (humbledollar.com) Companies How did Boeing ($BA) go so wrong? wsj.com) Taiwan Semiconductor's ($TSM) Arizona plant is outperforming those in Taiwan. awealthofcommonsense.com) R&D spending in the U.S.

Financial Advising 293

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 293

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $96 million last week, down about 42% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 20th.

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $147 million last week, down about 7% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 27th.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $109 million last week, down about 41% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 25th.

Economy 263

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 263

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. I also look at the yield curve, but I've found new home sales is generally more useful.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investments 361

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 9, 2022

Back in early 2009, I wrote a couple of posts arguing there would be an increase in auto sales - Vehicle Sales (Jan 2009) and Looking for the Sun (Feb 2009). This was an out-of-the-consensus call and helped me call the bottom for the US economy in mid-2009. And in April 2020, sales collapsed due to the onset of the pandemic.

Sales 208

Sales Numbers Economy 208

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $75 million last week, down about 58% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 10th.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

economy will perform in 2023, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 - to adjust my thinking. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably under 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? 2) Employment: Through November 2022, the economy added 4.3

Economics 347

Economics Economy Sales Commission 347

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $83 million last week, down about 55% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 13th.

Economy 244

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 244

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $236 million last week, up about 37% from the median for the week - thanks to "Avatar: The Way of Water". -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $115 million last week, down about 57% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 1st.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $88 million last week, down about 35% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 6th.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $136 million last week, down about 39% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 11th.

Economy 245

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 245

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $206 million last week, down about 18% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through July 21st.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Commercial real estate sales edged up. Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December.

Economics 162

Economics Manufacturing Nonprofit Transportation 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Some of those questions concerned real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment are on this blog). How much will the economy grow in 2024? How much will the economy grow in 2024? The FOMC is expecting growth of 1.2%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investments 200

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $142 million last week, down about 45% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- NOTE: This is the previous week data, since hotel data wasn't released during the holiday week. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 24th.

Economy 237

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 237

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $50 million last week, down about 59% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 15th.

Economy 231

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 231

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2025

The bottom line remains the same: There will not be cascading price declines in this cycle due to distressed sales. It wouldn't take a RE bust to impact the general economy. Just a slowdown in both volume (to impact employment) and in prices (to slow down borrowing) might push the general economy into recession.

Economy 147

Economy Sales 147