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Ten Economic Questions for 2025

Calculated Risk

economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. There were many promises made during the campaign that obviously will not happen (deport 20 million people, no taxes on tips, overtime or Social Security benefits, 200% tariffs, and on and on). in 2024 (around 2.6%

Economics 290
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Podcast links: tax fairness

Abnormal Returns

time.com) Economy Stephen Dubner on why it is so hard to build stuff in the U.S. podcasts.apple.com) Michael Klein talks the fairness of the tax system with William G. (nytimes.com) The 10 best podcasts of 2023 including 'Strike Force Five.' freakonomics.com) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk about the problem with the U.S.

Taxes 263
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Podcast links: thinking freely

Abnormal Returns

arstechnica.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks Gen Z with Kyla Scanlon, author of "In This Economy?: fasterplease.substack.com) Policy Stephen Dubner talks tax myths with Jessica Riedl, a senior fellow in budget, tax, and economic policy at the Manhattan Institute. How Money & Markets Really Work."

Budgeting 147
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Sunday links: controlling your vote

Abnormal Returns

npr.org) How the alcohol lobby has kept higher taxes at bay. statnews.com) Economy Where does economic growth come from? (msn.com) More Americans live in health care deserts as small hospitals close. advisorperspectives.com) In many states a rape exception is no help at all. awealthofcommonsense.com) R&D spending in the U.S.

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Housing Starts and Recessions

Calculated Risk

An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession. Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. I ignored that downturn as a pandemic distortion.

Sales 309
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Question #1 for 2023: How much will the economy grow in 2023? Will there be a recession in 2023?

Calculated Risk

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. Or will the economy lose jobs? 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 278
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Catastrophizing Debt

The Big Picture

Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? That none of these things occurred makes me wonder why we still pay attention to these deficit hawks. And second, should we ignore changes that have taken place over that 15-year period?

Economy 347